저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
금·은은 유동성 둔화로 조정 국면이며 9~10월까지 갈 수 있으나 장기 강세장은 유효하다. 미국은 재정·부채 부담으로 통화를 찍을 수밖에 없고, 인플레이션 압력(AI 전력·데이터센터, 국방비, 관세, 식품)이 지속되어 금리는 쉽게 내리지 못한다. 금리는 1981년 정점 이후 2020년 8월부터 상승 사이클에 있다. S&P500은 배당수익률이 역사적 최저, PER 과열로 고평가되어 금융자산에 신중해야 한다. 트럼프 일가 관련 종목은 하락에 베팅하는 것이 유리하다고 주장.
다듬은 글
As you know, I am a proponent of people owning gold. I haven't talked much about gold because that's my opinion and I could be wrong, but I haven't sold my gold. Personally, I believe that gold, like silver, is in a correction phase, and this may last for some time due to the slowdown in liquidity growth.
So, we could have a gold correction that lasts until, say, September or October, but that's not certain. I am not selling my gold. I'm just looking at the charts, and my feeling is that the dynamics of gold are not very impressive. Whereas, as I mentioned earlier, I am struck by the exceptional strength of financial stocks and the growing power of developers, not only in the US but also in emerging markets.
Gold has always been considered one of the most reliable assets, especially in times of economic instability, rising debt, and concerns about the stability of the global financial system. However, recent developments in precious metals markets have made investors nervous and raised serious concerns about the future of gold and silver.
According to renowned Swiss investor, economist and report editor Marc Faber, precious metals are currently experiencing a consolidation phase, rather than the end of their long-term bull market. According to Faber, the underlying reasons for owning physical metals remain more compelling than ever. While short-term weakness in gold and silver may persist due to changing global liquidity conditions, he argues that instead of focusing on price fluctuations, investors should consider more important economic issues: government debt, currency devaluation, the threat of inflation and the evolution of financial markets.
Don't forget to like , subscribe, and click the notification bell to learn more . Monetary policy is currently in a "straitjacket," as debt payments or interest on them have become the largest expenses. So if you pay interest on debt but don't increase the money supply, interest rates are definitely going up .
But you can print money—I mean electronic issuance—and buy bonds or support the bond market to some extent. I say "to some extent", not 100%, but that in turn causes inflation. You understand, it is very difficult to get out of an inflationary spiral , and this is exactly the situation we found ourselves in.
Let's say interest rates are now: I get , let's say, 4% on my deposits. I can buy bonds, some of them yield 5%, some 6%. Whereas in 2020 I actually received nothing in cash. But the interest I get on cash is extra money. So this is a kind of inflationary factor. Do you understand? Mhm. Volcker defeated inflation.
But in 1979, he raised the discount rate by 250 basis points at once. Ask if Powell is going to raise rates by more than a quarter point. He'll be killed if he raises it by half a point or a whole point. The US is now in a vice where it is actually very difficult to slow down the growth rate of monetary aggregates, because if you do that—the stock market will collapse.
And the last thing Trump and his henchmen want is for the stock market to fall. And Powell, as an economist, would probably like to raise rates, but I'm telling you, his father-in-law and his wife, who own real estate, don't like it. You know, if you look at the 1970s, 10- year rates at the beginning of the decade were 6%, and in September 1981 they reached 15.8%.
OK. So, we had a sharp increase in rates, but in between, the yield on 10- year bonds sometimes fell by half, by 50%. Because there were rallies in the bond market. Do you understand? When the market is growing, there are periods of correction. Like in 1987: looking back, it was a correction within the " bull" market.
Then there was the 1990-91 correction in America. And then the correction of 98. And in 2000, the market went down until 2002-2003. Then there was a "bull" market until 2007-2008, a sharp correction, another "bull" market until 2020, another sharp correction and up again. It's the same with interest rates.
They grow, then fall, and then grow again. So they move in long cycles. In my opinion, the interest rate cycle peaked in '81. Rates fell until August 2020. And since August 2020, we have been in an upward cycle for inflation and interest rates. But these upward cycles can be interrupted by short-term ones, which reduce inflation rates and interest rates for a certain time.
However, the trend is upward. That's my opinion. You can say, " Mark, you're crazy ." Yes, it is possible. Many people think so, but you need to have a certain long-term view. And you ask me about my long-term predictions. I would be very careful with financial assets right now because they are incredibly overvalued.
The S&P has never had such a low dividend yield. And the P/E ratios are simply sky-high. Today, companies do not measure price/ earnings ratio. They measure the ratio of price to sales volume. The Federal Reserve is in a difficult position as the growth of the national debt puts enormous pressure on it through increasing interest payments.
The cost of borrowing could rise significantly and further strain the financial system if the Fed decides not to increase the money supply. Even if there are short-term improvements or market corrections, this creates a complex cycle where inflation and interest rates can remain high for a long time.
Investors should be very cautious with traditional financial assets because of these risks. Many analysts believe that certain segments of the stock market, such as the S&P 500, are overvalued and have very low dividends, making them too expensive compared to the past. Investors looking to preserve their capital may find hard assets such as gold, silver and platinum more attractive amid growing concerns about debt, inflation and currency stability.
Marc Faber, however, believes that precious metals still need to undergo a small correction before the next significant increase. think yes, money can flow elsewhere, into hard assets like gold, silver, and platinum. But I wouldn't bet on it right now. I think, uh , we saw a big move in gold and silver last year and early this year, up until the end of February.
And since then we have been in a correction phase, and I think it will continue for some time. But I am convinced that the United States— and we discussed this 10 minutes ago— has no choice but to print money. You understand that the pain for the average American, as well as the pain for the capital market and the stock market from tight monetary policy today will be much greater than that which Volcker inflicted on the USA by raising rates to combat inflation; because the financial market back then was tiny compared to today.
So it affected the economy. Yes, definitely. There was a recession in 1981–82, but it wasn't as devastating as it would be today. I mean, Volcker's tight monetary policy today would be a complete disaster. I consider this a complete disaster, because you see, let's say, in 1973, market capitalization in the US was about 25% of GDP.
In other words, the market capitalization was significantly smaller than the real economy. Now, global market capitalization and global bond market capitalization, that is, the overall financial system as a percentage of the economy, exceeds it many times over. Previously, you could say, oh, the economy is growing, housing construction is increasing, etc., and that affected the market.
But today, and Trump understands this perfectly well, it is the market that influences the economy. So in an ideal world, he would want to support the market, especially to support his own companies and those of his family. Of course, there is no hope for his companies. I mean, the recipe for making money for investors is to play on the downside of any stock associated with the Trump family.
This is a recipe, a guaranteed recipe for making money. Why do you say that? Because they all go to the bottom. They all fall. These stablecoins are a complete disaster. They enriched the family by about $700 million. and impoverished the investors who bought this garbage by about $700 million. The economy was financed.
There is no doubt about that. regarding failure. Of course, the markets will eventually assert themselves, and in my opinion, the US is heading for a fiscal crisis because deficits in a democracy are very difficult to reduce. A politician who comes to people and says, "Look, we made mistakes in the past, so now you're going to have to tighten your belts," "You have to work harder, pay higher taxes, and, uh, you're going to get fewer benefits," is unlikely to get elected even in a million years; I guarantee you this.
Politicians who come and say: " Oh, we'll give you this benefit and that benefit, we'll subsidize your children, we'll provide free healthcare and who knows what else," are the ones who will be elected; is this a unique or endemic phenomenon to the US and Europe. In some European countries the situation is even worse.
But I must say that in most developing economies, this is not the case because we do not have social security programs. Do you understand? in the USA. First, the debt situation is very difficult, and interest rates on the US national debt are unlikely to decrease, as deficits are large and increase the national debt every year.
Interest rates are unlikely to fall because inflationary pressures remain, regardless of whether oil prices rise or remain high. Inflationary pressures are real, and I expect food prices to continue to rise. So the Fed cannot significantly lower interest rates right now. There are people like John Williams of Shadow Stats who estimated that the consumer price index in May was 12.5% per annum, and I guarantee your viewers are not living with 4% per annum inflation, they are living with somewhere between 6 and 12% inflation.
Certainly. Of course. You see, the price of oil has previously increased significantly, and now we are in a profit-taking phase, as is the case with other commodities. But what exactly causes inflation? I will tell you that the AI boom is affecting pricing because AI development and data centers require a lot of electricity.
They need a lot of water, so these prices tend to rise, and since it's a giant sector of the economy, it creates additional demand, as does defense spending. So, there is demand, and in addition, there are import duties, which also increase prices. In my opinion, you won't see a significant reduction in inflation unless—and this is the main issue— the economy goes into recession.
experiencing a dangerously high level of financialization. He explains that financial markets now significantly influence economic decisions because they are much larger than the real economy was a decade ago. Central banks and governments are constantly under pressure to maintain asset values, but this strategy ultimately leads to more serious problems.
Faber warns that as national debt and budget deficits continue to rise, the US is on the brink of a fiscal crisis. He believes that because such programs are unpopular, politicians are unlikely to cut spending or ask voters to make sacrifices. Instead, governments continue to build up debt, which creates additional strain on the financial system.
Furthermore, he argues that rising costs in sectors such as food, energy, artificial intelligence, infrastructure and government spending will continue to pose a significant inflationary threat. He believes that inflationary pressures remain high and interest rates cannot fall significantly unless the economy deteriorates, even if there are short-term dips .
Faber advises investors to be cautious with financial assets and focus on preserving wealth during unpredictable times. He believes that hard assets such as gold and silver can be an important hedge against inflation, debt problems, and currency instability . .
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