저자: Sapon—소속미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
TCL(3배 레버리지 ETF) 주간 급락에도 장기 보유 기조 유지. 고용지표 약세는 금리 측면에선 안도 요인이나 AI 반응주 차익실현·고점 우려가 겹쳐 하락. 과거 데이터상 10% 이상 주간 급락 후 반등 비율이 높아 멘탈 관리와 원칙 준수 강조. 신규 매수 없이 기존 보유 유지, 메인 인덱스펀드 꾸준 투자 지속.
다듬은 글
Hello. This is Sapon. Last week, stocks that were reacting to the market declined sharply. I thought some people might have been upset, so I'll release another video. As of last weekend, the estimated value of my TCL was approximately 69.69 million yen . I lost approximately 1.55 million yen in one week.
That's enough money to buy a used car, isn't it? At times like these, you feel a little uneasy the moment you look at your bank account, don't you? However, looking at the market throughout last week, I think TQ99TCL had a relatively calm trading session. I want to maintain my composure. I invested approximately 10 million yen in TCL using dollar-cost averaging over three years starting in 2020, and I have held onto it ever since without selling.
Why did I buy Leverage GTF as music? For tips on how I managed to hold onto my investment at 3x for 6 years, please refer to another video. This video provides information for those who own or are interested in TEClTQ99, a 3x leveraged ETF related to US technology . As usual, in addition to explaining the exam , I will also talk about my investment policy and personal life at the end.
Let me briefly summarize today's key points first . ECL fell slightly. TQQ rose slightly. The price for immediate trading has fallen sharply . The employment statistics were weaker than market expectations, weren't they? Generally speaking, this was somewhat reassuring in terms of interest rates . However, another negative factor has emerged for AI reaction stocks .
Over-increased profits confirmed. And then there are concerns about AI investment. In the latter half of this video, we'll take a look at what kind of movements have been common in the past after a 3x ETF has fallen sharply , and we'll also check this . The assumptions for leveraged ETFs will be displayed on the screen , so please check them.
Now let's look at the results for the three stocks from last week . yes. Let's look at the movement from June 26th (set as 100) to July 2nd. Here it is. Looking at the graph, all three stocks did not perform poorly in the first half of the week . Actually, the "instant suru" option is showing the strongest upward trend.
However, the tide turned in the second half . Looking at the final week, TCL saw a slight decline. TQ99 saw a slight increase. Immediately selling would result in a significant drop. Rather than the entire tech sector collapsing all at once, this week saw a very strong sell-off in reactionary themes .
Even with the same 3x leveraged ETF, the price movements varied considerably depending on what it was linked to . Next, let's look at the weekly volatility for last week . TCL was 18.2% , and TQ99 was 12.8% . On the other hand, 47% said they would do it immediately. The practice sessions were n't always weak from the start; they rose considerably once before plummeting sharply .
Huh, when I checked this morning it had gone up significantly. When I checked the next day, it had dropped significantly in the morning. It was such a dazzling custom. Let's not just be surprised by the magnitude of the price fluctuations , but also examine why they occurred. The US employment statistics were released on July 2nd.
As you can see from the numbers on the screen, to put it simply, the momentum in employment was weaker than market expectations. The figures for the previous month have also been illegally corrected. In other words, the employment situation in the music industry might not be as strong as one might think .
However, these figures didn't suggest that the economy suddenly collapsed . The market interpreted this not so much as a sign of an economic shift, but rather as a indication that the Fed might be less in need of an immediate further interest rate hike . The Federal Reserve ( FRB) is the central bank of the United States.
In Japan, it's similar to the Bank of Japan. Therefore, looking solely at the employment statistics, the results tended to provide a sense of reassurance regarding interest rates . In fact, there was buying across a wide range of stocks, wasn't there? This employment report brought a sense of relief to the overall market , and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new record high .
On the other hand, NAS data showed weak performance . In other words, not all US stocks moved in the same direction . The stock market has risen sharply due to the AI boom, but isn't it a bit too much of a reaction to that? The usual anxiety arises: will the massive investment in AI really yield the expected profits?
This has appeared. In short, while there was some relief regarding interest rates, the market reacted with profit-taking and caution against high prices. This was a week where both occurred simultaneously. Since it's a 3x leveraged ETF of reaction stocks, it's most strongly affected by this . TCL and TQ99 are also being affected by AI and large-scale tech companies.
However, I'm not so focused on the reactionary force as to immediately compel [the music] . That's why the differences between the three stocks became so clear last week . Next, let's broaden our perspective a bit to include music and look at the stock prices year-to-date. Looking at the numbers on the screen, all three stocks are in positive territory year-to-date.
In particular, even after a significant drop last week, it's still in a large positive position year-to-date. Incidentally, the S&P 500 has been up 8.5% year-to-date. The Nikkei 225, which has been performing exceptionally well, is up 34.5% year-to-date . So, compared to those, this year's figures are significantly higher, right?
What we can see from this is that rather than Sosul suddenly becoming a weak commodity, it had surged considerably in the first half of this year, so the current sharp drop is due to profit-taking . Leveraged GTF can increase incredibly during upward trends, but its reaction is also tremendous. As individual investors, we have no chance of winning if we participate in a battle between AIs that buy and sell in an instant .
Let time work in your favor and follow the path you believe in. Stick to your call sign and invest steadily with a medium- to long-term perspective. Next is the drawdown. Drawdown is a metric most recent high. The screen displays the figures for three stocks . PC is currently down 28.5% , TQ99 is down 15.9% , and SokuSuru is down 39.7% , so it looks like we'll continue to have drawdowns this week as well .
While the New York Dow Jones and S &P 500 are currently trading at record highs , leveraged products are characterized by longer periods of drawdown. This means they have a very high capacity for patience. Once you hit a high price, that amount becomes an anchor point, and during the drawdown, you feel like you've lost something, right?
However, as we saw earlier, it's also true that it has risen significantly over the years, so let's hold onto it calmly . Today's topic is the number of times the price of the three TEClTQ99 products has increased or decreased by more than 10% in a single week, from 2010 to the present . I compiled this .
PCs saw increases of more than 10% in 100 weeks and decreases of more than 10% in 77 weeks. TQ99 rose 91 times and fell 65 times. The number of times it immediately increased was 173 , and the number of times it decreased was 136 . This graph reveals some interesting facts . One thing is that for any stock, the number of times it has risen has been greater than the number of times it has fallen.
And if we look at the data in order of the number of increases and decreases, the first one that comes to mind is TCLTQ99. This indicates that there were many markets with large price fluctuations . You could also say it's simply a list of those with the highest volatility . I think this might be correlated with the depth of the drawdown mentioned earlier .
When stock prices are as low as they have been recently, it's easy to feel like they might never recover. However, looking at past data for music, statistically speaking, large declines occur more often . This data is n't meant to predict the future, but it's something I'd like to use as material to help you regain your composure when you're feeling anxious [through music].
Next, after a drop of more than 10% in one week, how many weeks did it take to recover by more than 10%? I compiled this data from 2010 to the present. Here too, I'll check not only TCL but also TQ99 , a total of 3 stocks. In the music category, the percentage of cases where a stock fell by more than 10% in one week and then rebounded by more than 10% the following week was 30% for TCL, 31% for TQ99Q (music), and 35% for Sokusuru.
Furthermore, within the last four weeks, approximately 70% of TCL stocks, 62% of TQ99 stocks, and 76% of ISK stocks rebounded by more than 10% in any state. If we broaden the timeframe to include within 8 weeks , all three products have recovered to over 80% of their previous levels . This is important.
After a decline, there's more than a 50% chance that stock prices will recover within a month , but a month is quite a long time, isn't it? Actually, sometimes a sudden rebellion comes after a period where I'm feeling fed up with music and finding it too difficult. Therefore, it's important not to get carried away and exit the market based solely on the week in which prices fell.
While it's impossible to predict the timing of a rebound, if you don't stay in the market, you can't boost the upward trend in stock prices . Of course, this is not a prediction that it will definitely go up next week . Rather, the historical data shows that in TCLTQ99 , all of the reference products have repeatedly experienced significant declines followed by large rebounds .
That's why, especially when you're scared, check your rules and financial management and prepare not to back out. That's precisely why I've included this slide . This is to prevent people with 3x leverage from being overwhelmed by anxiety and disappearing from the market . I myself use this kind of past data as material to help me organize my thoughts as I continue to hold onto TCL .
When I feel anxious, I look at the numbers, look at the reasons behind my music , and then I want to return to my own path . Let's take a look at this week's schedule. July The FOMC's question paper will be released on the 8th . This is where the market will see how the US central bank views inflation and employment .
This week's key points are the employment statistics, how the slightly softer interest rate concerns will be received in the pseudo-FOMC meeting, and whether profit-taking in AI reaction stocks will continue or if things will calm down . Morgan House, the author of my favorite book, *The Cyclology of Money*, says that the price you pay to get a return on investment is price fluctuations and uncertainty .
When there's a lot of variability in the market, it inevitably makes me anxious [about music] . However, if you're aiming for big returns with leveraged GTF, you need to accept these price movements as part of the package. Naturally, the premise is that investments should be within the limits of one's risk tolerance.
Keep it separate from your personal living expenses . Decide on the ownership rules beforehand . Be prepared not to exit the market based on emotion when you feel scared . Taking risks is the price you pay to get a return, isn't it? Therefore, this is a phrase I want to remember to calm my mind, especially during weeks like this when the market is volatile .
My investment strategy remains unchanged this time as well. I'm continuing to steadily invest in my main index fund as before . I will not purchase any additional TCL shares and will continue to hold them as a dream investment. The main line is meant to represent funds for children's education or retirement , and it's an investment framework for funds that will allow you to live with your disability without worrying about money .
The "Dream Slot" is a investment slot designed to help me fulfill my dream . Simply put, I want to do only what I love, with the people I love, without being tied down by work or anything like that. That's the foundation of freedom. Last week was a week of high volatility, wasn't it? I don't make decisions like buying or selling based solely on these numbers .
I always do the same thing. Check the valuation amount and understand why the action was taken . Check the risks. And then I return to my own rules. I try not to become overly confident during weeks when I've made some gains . I try not to be overly worried during weeks when the market is down. The market moves on its own, regardless of my work or the time I spend with my family .
All I can do is protect my own inner compass so that I don't get swayed by it every time. Let me tell you a little bit about my private life, unrelated to investing . Lately, our Switch 2 has been getting a lot of use at home . During this time of year, with the rain continuing and even a typhoon recently, there are more days when we have to go outside .
On those days, I often play video games at home with my kids . My wife and I enjoy playing Tetris together [with music playing]. I think these casual moments spent with family are incredibly valuable, especially when it comes to music . The market moves on its own whether I'm watching it or not . Neither my PC nor my TQ99 will accommodate my schedule.
That's why I leave asset management to the rules I initially set, and I make sure to fully enjoy the work in front of me and the time I spend with my family. I've been failing the TCL exam for six years because of this breakdown. If you'd like to check out Re:vale GTF with us next time, please subscribe to the channel and give us a thumbs up .
We will continue creating music, so next time we will look at US leveraged ETFs together, separating the numbers and emotions . thank you very much .
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