원문 보기
something is very interesting here since the financial crisis the biggest factor in market sentiment has been central bank easing whether they're printing money reducing interest rates or did I mention printing money their actions are completely correlated with what happens in the financial markets now we are here standing near the highest levels for equities in history overvalued by nearly all possible metrics and the suggestion that stocks could ever go down is considered ridiculous but with central bank's devaluing currencies at this level what could possibly go wrong you came here for the truth so let me unveil that for you I have so many articles and charts to get into today it's gonna make your head spin we're gonna talk about the Federal Reserve gonna look at their balance sheet we're gonna look at what's happening the stock market but first I wanted to talk about Ray Dalio now this information you probably already heard in the mainstream media but I wanted to cover some other parts of it that I thought were really interesting that they didn't bring up now I covered this on my community or blog section of the channel earlier today I pointed out something specific world's largest hedge fund reportedly bets over 1 billion dollars on a big stock market sell-off this is information you're probably already aware of but I wanted to show you something specific now when the article was initially written at 8:23 a.m.
they were referencing the Wall Street Journal suggesting that Bridgewater was using these put options they give you all the details in here I'm sure you're aware of it if I forward to the updated article you can see underneath the heading it says updated moments ago they changed the headline world's largest hedge fund is reportedly betting on a sell-off but founder Ray Dalio denies it and he put on Twitter essentially that they are not betting that the market is going to crash now of course further detail could happen in the future outlining exactly what this was all about but what we need to understand here is that this is a hedge fund they make bets in all directions they invest in different markets I'm sure they're in and out of these as rapidly so just because they have one particular trait going in one particular direction that doesn't mean that this is what Ray Dalio believes is gonna happen the whole markets gonna crash tomorrow and so on I also wanted to mention the fact that I was watching CNBC there were five people around the table and they were literally laughing at the possibility that stocks could ever crash the suggestion that somebody could be bearish they were all either smirking or laughing now I don't want to go down that road I know it's pure propaganda but I also wanted to note something extremely important and that is when we see an individual like this making bets we should take notice if you understood what happened back in 2017 Ray Dalio Bridgewater began to take bets against Italy against Europe and you could see in this case here Italian bank CEO - Bridgewater's Dalio you will lose your multi-million dollar bet against my company in this instance here seven hundred and thirteen million dollars in this particular wager against Italian financial stocks then he increased that bed and he increased it again and increased it again and this led into 2018 and we all know what happened in January 2018 and in fact things were looking bad all of 2018 but all throughout this period here before January 2018 he was looking like a fool they were laughing at him on CNBC and then what happened you know it's important to note in this case here and all of the others that they are never going to tell you when the stocks are crashing even he he actually did believe that things are looking really stretched right now it's probably a good time to take profits and we're gonna be betting on the market crash he's never gonna say that because like his company and others they're never going to actually warn the investors they have that there's a stock market crash come and they don't want to lose their investors they want them to stay put don't worry I got it all under control and then they can say we had no idea where this came from I never would have thought this would happen and so on it happens every single time now you could see what has happened with stocks the chart on the right here shows us over the last month they have done very very well QE four has been fantastic for the markets now if you see it over the past five days the markets are actually down now what has changed interestingly we've seen the repos every single day constant liquidity being pumped in we're hearing the same piece of information about trade optimism coming from both sides on literally a daily basis trying to keep these markets supported we know that's all propaganda so what changed well I found this very interesting that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet actually dropped not by much but it certainly had dropped and you could see that here on the chart this is basically from the beginning of September up until the present we've watched as the stock market has risen in this period and that has coincided with what we've seen in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and as soon as the market came down I couldn't help but notice the complete correlation with the Federal Reserve's balance sheet take a look at this the Green Line is the SMP 500 and the Fed's balance sheet is the red line to me it's extremely relevant to see these put together and I'll show you one more chart that coincides with this as well to me this is unbelievable when I see this type of information bells are going off of my head warning signals everything is simply pointing to the fact that central bank balance sheets are extremely important for the valuations of these particular stock markets in the financial markets in general if they were to stop printing today the markets would collapse now why if you say well they're not buying stocks directly how can that be the case liquidity is everything so in this case here the green line happens to be the SMP 500 and the global money supply is the blue line and you could see that they move for the most part in lockstep there is a correlation in here that people should not ignore I had done a video a little while back telling everybody how to predict the markets if you go to a search engine and type in the money GPS sixty seconds you will get that in fact I will link to it at the very end of this video so stay in here and I will link to it at the end essentially stating the fact that you can watch the money supply and if it goes up stocks will likely go up if it goes down stocks will go down and that's exactly what happened throughout 2018 as soon as they started to ramp up the printing presses in 2019 the stock market moved up doesn't take a genius to figure that one out now because of the Federal Reserve's intervention in the markets we have some very big problems going on with the yield curve inversion with the bond market in general this is the two-year ten-year it had been moving up here within this range for a while and is broken below that so we'll see if it actually does invert once again I'm not so sure but I will definitely keep an eye on it and bring any relevant information to you number of hours work to buy the Dow and this shows you that it is the most expensive ever in relation to something very real how many hours would it take you to buy a Dow Jones right now sitting at eleven seventy five so of course we could price it in US dollar we can see it priced in Euro or whatever country were looking at we could see those particular indexes price in their currency but what about in hours worked and I love these type of charts because it shows you a very real indicator by the way this chart goes back at the 60s and you can see how this has moved over this period of time this was an interesting article at a Bloomberg feds fix for the repo turmoil maybe helping the rally in stocks can you believe in my goodness the central bank driven by the need to hamp down problems in funding markets with liquidity injections has expanded its balance sheet from as little as three point seven six trillion at the end of August to 4.0 five trillion that growth has in effect already reversed close to 40 percent of the shrinkage that the Fed began in late 2017 now think about that for a second we're almost halfway there they took their time trying to wean off their balance sheet and what are they left with they're already going back towards where they were and I'm sure they're gonna increase the balance sheet beyond where it was before of course once again they have to mention the fact that this is not QE but as far as I'm concerned it absolutely is this article here is I actually written by bill Dudley from the Fed and he had some interesting things to say I actually want to do an entire video about this but I wanted to mention something really quickly he's talking about the build-up of corporate debt and I do believe he's mentioned this on multiple occasions so clearly this is something that he's worried about you know the people from the Fed act very differently when you see the FOMC meeting maybe it's the official statement of the Federal Reserve maybe it's Jerome Powell when he's having his conferences and compare that to what you see in their reports their articles and so on he references what's going on with the stock buybacks as well saying you know everything's fantastic but there could be an issue this is all incredibly pleasant during a period of sustained economic expansion but as Edie McKelvey and I wrote two decades ago there is a dark side to the brave ie longer business cycle when recessions become less frequent the shock of recession becomes greater when they do ultimately occur so you can say the bigger they are the harder they fall I've said many times before the longer they push this out for it means it's going to create a worse crisis eventually and this is his quote here this leads inevitably to greater turmoil in financial markets recent recessions such as the 2000 2001 bursting of the tech stock bubble or the 2072 9 financial crisis have a greater financial instability component compared with earlier economic downturns I completely agree with that there is no economic detox that's taken place and this has put serious pressure on the financial markets which in turn causes the Federal Reserve causes other central banks to react in appropriately and then I'm just gonna hammer through a couple things here Americans are hungry for personal loans that they can use as quick cash to pay for anything from vacations to credit card debt a potential red flag for the economy personal loans are up more than 10 percent from a year ago according to Equifax we haven't seen this since the Great Recession we've seen so many different factors piling up here the amount of debt that people have today is unsustainable and impossible to ever pay back the market and it's fear gauge that tracks volatility are moving together that could be a bad sign the VIX index which is complete garbage anyway has been moving in tandem at times with the S&P 500 for the first time in six months the only reason I mentioned this here is that even though we know specifically the Federal Reserve has a short position on volatility even though we know that all of their activities are done in a way to mask was actually going on beneath the surface we still find that there are many indicators that actually show the cracks that have appeared over the years and for those who are willing to look deeper it is truly unimaginable how far they have taken this Goldman sees baby bear market for bonds in 2020 in a year of risks but of course they mentioned the fact that risk assets like stocks should see a decent return they have no idea what they're talking about I mean honestly the way that they manipulate people should be something that is frowned upon at least but they're allowed to just say whatever they want and people keep believing them ECB chief Christine Lagarde speaks of a new order in the world economy at her debut speech there's a lot to this most of it just being fluff most of it being the same factors over and over again but we need to watch what's gonna happen with the ECB right now that's why I want the men this is one central bank that I do believe will enter a crisis that they can't dig themselves out of then we have the OECD trade conflict weak business investment and persistent political uncertainty are weighing on the world economy and raising the risk of long-term stagnation lowest GDP growth since the financial crisis is definitely a big problem because this has also been a decade of intervention we've never seen before and this here is another article at a Bloomberg basically saying that the rich people around the world are looking for safe deposit boxes and we're not talking about a few people this is so much that they cannot keep up okay this article just talks about a few examples where these companies are getting calls every single day for people who want to put a lot of money cash gold and other assets in their safe deposit boxes because they don't trust what's happening in the system and they are expecting a downturn now these type of people there are not necessarily insiders on all of what happens behind the scenes but I'm sure they're more in the know than the average public so it's just a piece of anecdotal information and I want to bring it to you I'm gonna end the video there if you found this video informative smash the like button thank you very much if you want to learn how to build the business how to make money online this is a free eCourse that's right free eCourse on how to sell on Amazon it's at the Amazon GPS com if you want to learn about the financial system how it works from top to bottom a twosie everything you need to know is located in these two books check them out at the link into the description if you want the audiobook that's available at the money GPS calm okay so here's that video it's 60 seconds long every single person should watch it click on it and I'll see you there
Comments 0