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in today's video we're going to talk a little bit about the portfolio which went up 3.19% compared to the S&P 500 1.74% in the last week since we started the portfolio we are up over 72% whereas the s&p500 is up 22.39% now the title of this video I don't know what that's going to be something about buy stocks don't look at the market or something like that I don't know maybe Tom Le will feature in thumbnail I don't know but I don't want to touch on a couple of things that Tom Lee mentioned in his own presentation late in 2024 and then touch on what Stanley Jo Miller did say as well and maybe maybe let's start with that the economy is very interesting we're at a very low unemployment rate 4% essentially we've got 3% GDP growth and I've been doing this for 49 years and we're probably going from the most anti-business Administration to the opposite so we do a lot of talking to CEOs and companies on the ground and I'd say CEOs are somewhere between relieved and giddy so we're a believer in Animal Spirits um Paul Ryan was on your show last week talking about a 32% increase in business confidence over the last 12 months I think that's probably a record in terms of chain so the economy looks very very strong at least for the next six months which is about a as far out as one can see uh with any degree of confidence and the next six months thing here is very interesting because we've been hearing Tom Lee say the exact same thing right he thinks that in the first half of 2025 the markets will continue to Rally but then in the second half of 2025 we might see some weakness we're going to touch on that later so let's continue with Stan here Stan my guy my friend in terms of the markets um I would say it's complicated we despite what I just said about all the wonderful things about the economy we have an earnings yield to bond yield probably the most unattractive level not probably the most unattractive level in 20 years so you're going to have this push of a strong economy versus bond yields rising in response to that strong economy and that kind of makes me not have a strong opinion one way or the other on the market I will say this in my business every change creates change in security prices and having this kind of radical change from one Administration to the other in addition to what's going on in the private sector with Innovation then you got deregulation from the government disruption I think there's going to be plenty of change and plenty for your viewers to do I wouldn't worry about the market I'd focus on individual stocks and that's something I've been saying for a while now I've seen a lot of com right and I've said that as well in those cheap stocks to buy stocks at 52 we lows and stuff like that yes markets can be at alltime highs or near alltime highs can be expensive that doesn't mean that a lot of stocks are not at attractive prices both can be true now it's also true that when the overall Market goes down usually it doesn't play favorites right even the cheap stocks will go down as well but you as an investor if you bought a stock that you think is cheap good business and the overall Market goes down and it takes that stock down as well what did you get well you just got your stock at a cheaper price yet the company did not change much Perfect combo right is the same with the earnings season right we're now entering well I would say close to Peak earnings season all the big companies are going to report earnings in the next couple of days and weeks so it's going to be quite an interesting time on this channel but what is the best case scenario the best case scenario is basically well a bit across the board good commentary on the company and all of that yet the stock goes down that's the best case scenario so yeah all in all if you keep asking the same question Market's expensive is too high still time yes if you buy individual stocks I still think that you can find quite a lot of quality now with regards to Tomley specifically back in December he talked a little bit about their projections for 2025 so the base case is equity risk on first half S&P 500 to 7,000 fundamental visibility weakens and then year end at 6,600 the TS here two puts support stocks near-term fed put as inflation eases and fed focuses on supporting employment Trump put as White House implements policies to boost confidence and earnings per share reallocation of investor capital from bonds cash to equities then the tail of two half so after backto back 20% gains that only happened five time before since 1871 cumulative 4-year increase of 69% versus 21 to 2024 tracking right now well back then 27% with one year left to well be in the exact time frame so you can see there's still quite a lot of upside possibility left four of the five precedents saw stocks fall in the third year only positive was 1996 five of five precedents saw stocks do worse in the second half of year three so this is why he basically said first half good half second half not that good now what could go wrong what could go wrong is this Doge the department of government efficiency is too effective and GDP falls on spending cuts and the second one is tariffs are actually implemented and GDP is impacted okay let's see how realistic these things are then he goes on to talk about EPs and PE expansion of those multiples etc etc his best ideas are tops picks small caps financials industrial and then Bitcoin so there is that then he goes on to talk a little bit about the well Doge the department of government efficiency so it's going to be negative for healthcare coupled with RFK heading HHS I don't think he has been elected just yet correct me if I'm wrong and the second negative is government contractor so defense IT consulting etc etc he does say one positive thing here that's going to be for the productivity providers such as penter I'll do a specific paler video not a shareholder anymore going to earnings so I'll do a specific video thoughts going into earnings and why I still think 2025 is going to be a very good year for pante here and when I will jump back in and then the last one here positive bond market via lower yield he also said that he hopes that the FED doesn't cut that much this year why is that you might say that's quite a strange things to say right but no if they don't cut it actually makes a lot of sense if they don't cut a lot in 2025 that would mean that the rate cut cycle just gets longer and longer and that's going to be positive for the long-term bull market because that means you're going to get some rate Cuts this year you're going to get some rate cuts the next year and then maybe even some rate cuts the year after that if you really really only do one or two cuts a year which again every year that you have rate cuts it usually helps so all in all going into this earning season is going to be quite a I would say a volatile one I think the market being the market right at alltime highs it's going to be important to focus on specific companies but we also know that some companies in certain sectors will move the other companies in that specific sector whether it's the cloud providers whether it's in advertising social media chips etc etc those will affect one another some companies have super high expectations while the others not that high so it's going to be quite easy to beat those things and then since we are at the start of the year a lot of focus will be on that 2025 guidance it's it's a pretty big week this this week with the likes of Tesla meta lamb research asml Intel Apple I believe apple is also Thursday and well of course Sofi on Monday which we're definitely going to cover as well all reporting so it's going to be quite a hectic week but a very very interesting one now the portfolio is still performing quite well I would say year to dat we already up 7.78% I actually didn't do anything in the last couple of days didn't buy didn't sell didn't do didn't do anything so nothing much has changed so far is still number one in the portfolio then we have PayPal Google alphabet cash 8.45% right now now we've got Tesla rocket lab that thing is just insane the position is extremely small but yeah we're up 62.4% you're going to ask me oh why aren't you selling this right now if you're up 602 well because I still think that the upside is quite immense in the future and like I said this was a tiny tiny position that just became so big because it's up 62% if we drop by 50% fine I'll add even more I still think this can become a hundred billion company in the future then we've got Uber Intel uh Intel is going to be well on Thursday night earnings I'm still down 19.4% so yeah I don't know how much lower this thing can go cuz the expectations for Intel are quite low going into this earnings report I fully expect them to beat their own guidance but then of course all the questions are probably going to be on maybe some rumors maybe who's the new coo well not maybe who's the new CEO I mean we're still waiting we don't know but yeah it's going to be quite interesting Alibaba finally in the green 3.25% I'm still very very positive on my well and the positive view on my Chinese Holdings here in my last AMD video I did talk about deep seek and the CCP and how China is lying Etc Etc and and someone in the comments said oh if you're going to be anti-china and a racist I will unsubscribe huh how does that make any sense quite a strange thing to say to someone that owns Alibaba and pin duodo maybe that makes me a panda panda panda panda panda panda anyways the local the local up 18.5% this is one of those companies where I think 2025 is definitely going to be their year either an acquisition or finally the market will notice that this thing should be worth more we've got meta we've got Micron Micron I'm already up 13.5% I still want to build up my position a bit more Pino up 8.75% now we've got transmedics and Celsius still in the portfolio I made up my mind I'm going to wait until after the earnings season and see what happens those are basically with Intel my two losers of the portfolio than thankfully it's not a big position so that's fine 2% and 2.2% that's fine this is the newest position this is Disney I'm already up 5% you oh you bought Disney a wo company I explained everything in a specific video it's still small but I do intend to make this position bigger than Celsius trans Medics and maybe even pin duo duo and then we've got the two bets basically abela and Outlet very very small point .
5% and 1.6% it's basically it's either a 10 X Plus or a zero so voila and so that's about it I'm going into this earning season with a significant amount of cash I'm very very comfortable with that I will look for opportunities to add to well some of the positions here that I do want to grow more and more and then and then hopefully fingers crossed palente here does report great earnings and the stock crashes 30% that would be the best case scenario but then again a lot of angry people will be in my comment section so anyways that's all I've got for you right now like subscribe to all of that and I see you all in the next one bye-bye
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