저자: Kevin · 외국인
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뉴욕타임스 보도를 근거로 임대료 상승이 인플레이션을 지지할 수 있다고 봄. 주택가격은 금리 하락에 따른 자산 선호로 임대료보다 크게 올랐고, 임대료는 2021년 6월 기준 전년 대비 7% 상승. 단기 모기지·매물 증가 등을 근거로 향후 주택가격 5~10% 조정 가능성을 언급하나 대폭락은 가능성 낮다고 봄. 인플레가 더 오래 갈 가능성에 대비해 옵션 매도, 현금 확보, 부동산 인플레 헤지 관점을 제시.
다듬은 글
hey everyone kevin here we've got to talk about a new coming form of inflation that we haven't talked too much about but now it's front page of the new york times and quite frankly even though we've briefly mentioned it and talked about it a bit it is time to fully address this potential risk to our markets now there is also one more big risk that happens tonight and that is the expiration of the amazing coupon code for getting 40 off o so check those out before the expiration prices will go up tomorrow okay folks let's get into the topic rising rents folks let's address what the new york times says first then draw conclusions and come up with a strategy for dealing with this so again we're going to start with the article first the new york times says rising rents threaten to prop up inflation let's talk about this the rental market they say which slumped during the pandemic has snapped back more quickly than economists had predicted oh my gosh economists are wrong what and now renters across the country are facing sticker shock rents last month rose seven percent nationally from a year earlier now it's worth noting that housing prices rose about 20 year-over-year so rents are substantially behind home price appreciation now home price appreciation could be propped up by uh by essentially lower interest rates and now initially when we think okay well home prices are up 20 rent should go up 20 it's actually not a hundred percent true we'll talk more about that in a moment but one of the things for you to consider when you think about the difference between renting and owning is that owning is a form of an investment and when other alternative investments become less desirable to invest in maybe stocks are too volatile or they're trading sideways too much or bonds are not providing enough of a yield investing in real estate becomes more desirable and the more people invest in real estate willing to accept lower rates of return the more you could actually see home prices go up and rent prices not actually catching up to home prices so this is a very very important concept to consider is a and it's basically defined as a compression of yields in real estate that could lead home prices to go up substantially more than rising rents but bottom line is rents still went up seven percent year over year now we are measuring a year ago we're measuring into about june a lot of folks got rent abatements last year as well that is they got offered lower rent they got rent uh forgiveness or they got negotiated deals we personally have negotiated lower rent deals with tenants last year and now it's like oh my gosh these are like below market so there's there's a little bit of measuring into the hole going on here as well but seven percent from a year ago that's a good chunk that's a good move for rents they also mention that we have a 1.8 gain just from may we're going to talk more about this the new york times goes on to say that this could be bad news for both those seeking housing and the national inflation outlook and that's because rental costs play an outside role in the consumer price index so in other words what they're saying here is we might actually see things that are very high right now like used cars or airline tickets right we might actually see these potentially start inflecting down drawing our inflation readings back down but if at the same time as these go down rents go up we might end up seeing higher inflation for longer than originally anticipated let's keep going and then again we're going to come up with conclusions and of course make sure to get your 40 off coupon code link down below expires today okay then i'm gonna stop talking about it uh prices are going to go up a big chunk but anyway both tend to move slowly but are just defying expectations okay that's because okay let's break this down so technically the way cpi defines rents going up is through this bizarro thing called owner's equivalent rent and it's basically a survey of homeowners going what could you rent out your property for right now and that's because there's really a not a very good database showing rent rental comp data we have frustrations of that as real estate as agents as well because a lot of like leased properties just don't get submitted as comps so it's very difficult to get accurate housing data so the most accurate means that cpi gatherers bureau of labor statistics has found has been this thing called owner's equivalent rent it's odd it's behind it's not that great but it is what it is it's what we have and what we're looking for again are inflection point data as well a lot of folks get really like jazzed up over this idea of oh well the data's wrong it's it's rigged or whatever that's fine then just look at the uh the rigged data so to speak and look for inflection points or changes in the rig data see what i mean and then just track the changes right unless of course it's rigged to where you don't even see the uh inflection points and if you believe that well you're honestly probably not watching this video uh because you've got to have a little bit of faith just a little bit of faith so you could track at least some data right and so that's what we're trying to do is we're looking for those changes in the market and this is an inflection point we're seeing owner's equivalent rent move up fairly sharply says an economist i expect it's going to get worse later this year and into early next i do think we'll see upside from rents and that'll offset some declines in good categories exactly like used cars airlines durables whatever services whatever in other words inflation might stay higher longer so but the only way that rents rise enough to keep inflation uncomfortably high she says is if wages are persistently higher now wages in the service industry like retail hospitality those are going up substantially but if you take out the reopening wages wages actually aren't going up that much they went up like 0.2 last month which is very very low anyway uh all right and then we have here data do suggest that a substantial supply of new apartments should be on their way this year but it's unclear when those will match up with demand in other words builders are trying to build more which makes sense that's one of the reasons we saw lumber prices skyrocket so much uh here's a real estate agent who was interviewed saying there's going to be another wave we're basically at full rental capacity and we're going to have another wave of people coming back to the office he says we're just past peak zoom which i think is kind of interesting you know zoom video conferencing we're just past that peak so in other words we're still working our way down that bell curve and we get a long way to go so far in 2021 rental prices nationally have grown 9.2 percent compared to the two to three percent that is typical from january to june it's a big big big move here folks occupancy rates are high rents are a trailing spouse to home price appreciation in other words home prices tend to go up first and then rents go up but remember the warning i gave you about they might not necessarily have to go as much as home price appreciation uh the administration officials over at the biden administration still suggest that inflation will be temporary obviously at least 50 of us do not believe that to be true and uh and even if congress passes any kind of rental relief packages or new sort of human infrastructure or stimulus packages it'll take years for some of these things to actually get out some of these new things but let's now so now we've got the new york times article here and we've got some of the concerns laid out let's try to put this together here okay uh all right so here's how we're gonna start first uh yeah look a quick note on these rental relief packages and things like this and this sets up just another issue california has 5.2 billion dollars of rental relief money 92 percent of that is from the federal government they've only sent 6.3 percent as of the last reading about a few days ago they've only distributed 6.3 attendance that means you've got a substantial number of tenants who are still behind in red and so we have this really really weird environment where what you have and i'm going to write this here sort of on on the bad side of things right you have essentially a lot of people who are behind on rent uh and then you have this potential for an eviction crisis and this is happening by the way at the same time as you have this potential that real estate prices might start coming down now we've talked about this before and the easiest way that i like looking up that okay why do i think real estate prices might start coming down easiest thing to do is just quickly hop on over to the redfin data center and what i like to track is i like to track new listings we see new listings slightly ticking down here but then you look at prices listing home prices and we see that home prices are still up so home prices are still up that is new listing prices what sellers are asking for the asking prices are up but at the same time pending sales are really starting to fall sharply earlier than they usually fall and that's that's a potential problem because it's a potential sign of buyer fatigue and a potential stagnating of inventory so this is another thing right stagnating of inventory and then of course you have buyer fatigue fatigue yeah so you got behind on rent eviction crisis stagnation of inventory bio fatigue all of these things are kind of coming together at a relatively similar point and this is concerning because when you look at this as being a bad you wonder okay well when could this potentially bubble over well realistically this inflection point in pending sales and and an increase of inventory is going to start affecting prices almost immediately the real estate market can move very very quickly and so personally i wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing prices actually come down in the second half of this year as we start seeing inventory build up and we start getting this alignment again between buyers and not like 15 multiple offers anymore or whatever we start getting in alignment again where supply all of a sudden meets demand right we're getting back to an equilibrium as we go back to equilibrium we could easily see real estate prices come down a chunk i would say maybe somewhere between five to ten percent off these crazy highs would be realistic and in that case we might potentially end up in a situation where let's say home prices end up i don't know 12 to 14 percent higher than they were before the pandemic it wouldn't surprise me to see rents somewhere between 12 10 to 12 percent as high as they were prior to the pandemic so i do think we're going to get that rental uh you know appreciation and prices i do think we're going to see home prices come down from that crazy 20 gain just level out a little bit i'm not sure if we're going to get a culmination of a massive crash but you never know because in order for us to get like a massive crash we'd really have to see home prices give up not just their 20 gains but then probably fall another 20 to 30 i don't really see a catalyst for home prices falling 50 percent unless interest rates like skyrocket two to three to four percent and i don't believe that's what's going to happen now there is this belief that well wait a minute kevin if this is what inflation looks like right now and inflation is so high and then all of a sudden used car prices and airlines come down but pushing it right back up are rent prices then you could be in a situation where you have higher inflation longer and maybe the fed is forced to raise rates i do believe that could be true and it is possible that we will see higher inflation longer but i do believe that eventually rents will also start inflecting down we might just end up getting a delay as to when we see inflation inflecting to the downside that could be short-term painful for markets and so i want to be prepared for the potential of having inflation in the market as well as the potential for having less inflation than we expect in the market so i'm really taking this sort of sideways trading maybe a little bit of deflation you know falling prices in the housing market a little bit of a sideways uh a trading or investing mindset but before i get into that mindset i think it's worth quickly noting this here the cpi estimate of home prices doesn't come close to reflecting the market i thought this was really interesting this is uh the cpi's owner's equivalent rent right here is this blue line right here and home price appreciation is the black line and it's just worth noting that over the last 21 years you've had a much slower movement in rent prices than you have in housing prices so usually you can get these extreme 20 ups and downs or whatever in in housing prices but i believe that we'll probably have a more muted uh rental appreciation where maybe we get five percent over two years right compounded that'd be like 11 ish somewhere around there and i do believe house prices could be doing something like like that you know where essentially we get this a parabolic move up and then almost like a momentum stock come down and sort of level off maybe it would be a little bit softer something of that effect okay so now how do we make conclusions and how do we want to invest in this well so here's sort of a very clear bottom line on my belief my belief is that we will see probably higher inflation longer so inflation longer and that's potentially due to rents going up so more inflation longer in that event we're probably going to have sideways trading in the stock market longer and that means i really don't want to be a buyer of option contracts i want to be a seller of option contracts so i want to be a seller of options but i also want to be prepared for large dips so i want to have cash saved up and then i also want to be prepared to shop in the housing market so that's going to be a big deal in my opinion is going shopping in the housing market very very excited about potentially shopping in the housing market and and finally getting some wedge deals again below market value transactions why would i want to get into real estate because real estate ultimately is an inflation hedge when there's inflation real estate is a great tool for hedging yourself against inflation and i want to take advantage of being properly exposed to growth in tech stocks and stocks but also i have my inflation hedge in real estate so those are those are some of my uh beliefs and thoughts about this market and how we're going to potentially deal with this rental inflation danger so these are my thoughts hopefully you find these helpful if you did consider subscribing if you like the way i explain things consider checking out my you
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