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스탠리 드러켄밀러의 투자 방식과 2021년 5월 시점 시장 전망을 소개하는 해설 영상 결론: 드러켄밀러는 연준의 과도한 완화와 재정적자로 미국 달러 약세를 예상하고, 미국 성장주는 연내 조정 가능성이 있다고 보며, 중국 등 해외 자산 비중 확대를 강조한다. 투자 철학: 타율보다 장타율(큰 베팅으로 큰 수익)이 중요하며, 리스크 대비 보상이 비대칭적인 소수 종목에 집중 투자하는 방식을 택한다. 장기간 연평균 30%대 수익률을 기록했고 2008년에도 플러스였다고 언급. 접근법: 글로벌 매크로·유동성 흐름을 보고, 개별 기업의 펀더멘털을 분석하며, 가격 흐름(기술적 분석)으로 틀렸을 때 빠르게 빠져나온다. 2020년 3월 주식을 전량 매도했다가 4월 연준의 대규모 개입 후 다시 매수한 사례를 들어 열린 태도를 강조. 거시 전망: 연준의 주택담보대출증권 매입 등 공격적 완화가 부적절하며 인플레이션 압력이 커질 수 있다고 봄. 달러 약세, 원자재(유가) 강세, 인플레이션 헤지 자산 선호. 미국 증시 전망: 2021년 말까지 미국 주식에서 빠져나올 계획을 언급. 긴 듀레이션을 가진 성장주가 금리 인상 시 타격을 받을 것으로 봄. 미국 강세장은 나쁘게 끝날 것이라는 견해. 중국: 중국은 세계 GDP의 약 25%이나 글로벌 투자 포트폴리오 비중은 2% 미만으로, 미국(GDP 약 25%, 포트폴리오 28% 이상)과 대비되는 불균형을 강조하며 비중 확대에 우호적. 해설자 견해: 알리바바를 보유 중이라고 밝히며 밸류에이션·마진·현금흐름 측면에서 매력적이라고 평가. 자사 채널의 포트폴리오 공개 및 청산가치 이하 종목 언급 등 홍보성 내용 포함. 리스크 및 조건: 긴축 전환 시 성장주 조정, 가격 흐름이 불리해질 경우 포지션 재검토 필요성 언급. 출연자 전망: 해설자는 드러켄밀러 전략을 따라 미국 성장주 리스크를 경계하고 해외(중국) 자산에 관심을 보이는 취지로 정리.
다듬은 글
stanley druckenmiller is one of the greatest investors of all time arguably potentially even greater than the oracle of omaha himself warren buffett where stanley druckenmiller's track record includes 30 plus annualized over 30 years to put that math to paper that's over if you were to take one dollar that would be 2 600 plus over those 30 years keep in mind that's also without one single down year and in 2008 he was also up i believe double digits so arguably one of the world's greatest investors the question is how did he do it and what is his current outlook on the market i'll talk about both in just one second th no hype mission focus channel trying to find you exceptional companies than unrivaled investments types of stocks that could potentially go up hundreds and thousands of percent over time that's the goal hundreds of thousands percent over time and so if you enjoy learning about those types of companies and if you want to follow my personal journey each month calling out potential multi-baggers these types of companies that i think have you know asymmetric risk reward go to unrivaledinvesting.com click on journey each month first week of the month i also call out my full portfolio with all the reasons why let's get back to stanley druckenmiller why how has he done this incredible investment track record and how how has he done it and what does he think of the current investment landscape so understanding stanley druckenmiller as you know as we learn about them is that it's not about batting average when you think about baseball it's about slugging percentages which is how often do you make this big bet where you make a ton of money so it's about managing your risk reward with your portfolio and concentrating your bets so that means betting big when you like your risk reward when you think the asymmetric you know where you think that the odds of blow up is insignificant and that you have a very good asymmetric risk reward and so that's that is a key point to think about slugging percentages versus batting averages and concentrated position concentrated positioning and he also you know likes to say look a lot of modern investment theory is you know you've got to spread your eggs across multiple baskets no no no he's like put all your eggs in one basket actually lowers your risk as you're now concentrating on what what is in your basket you're laser focused on what are what are the potential things that can blow up your portfolio when you concentrate it and so i think it's a really interesting thought process and arguably he's right because you look at several of the other greater greatest investment investors out there very different investment styles investing in different things but a commonality of investing concentrated bets carl icahn warren buffett stanley druckenmiller making these concentrated bets on the things that they think have asymmetric risk reward and very low blow up risk and he's also playing a very different game he's playing a global macro liquidity game looking at how cash is sloshing across the world trying to figure out where is it going to end up where can the cash end up and how is it going to move security prices as an example of how he thinks the world is looking today is that the u.s is running crazy deficits and the federal reserve has effectively radical incredibly risky policies that is driving ultimately going to drive the u.s dollar lower and as investors realize they can get potentially better returns elsewhere the u.s dollar not only will decline but so will other u.s related assets and that's actually a bet that you've seen from another of the super investors you know uh you're looking at michael bury and i called out his portfolio recently where he's making a bet also arguably against u.s dollar by shorting tlt or those long data treasury bonds so you do see some sort of commonality here and so he's he's tracking liquidity thinking about how cash could be moving in and out what's the federal reserve doing is it tightening is it loosening what's it going to have what's it going to do if it has to respond to inflation these are all the different considerations he's doing as he's thinking about the investment landscape also it's worth understanding he has a multi-disciplinary approach where he's looking not only about the liquidity and how cash is moving around the world but he's also looking at the fundamentals of individual investments building up a bottom-up bottoms-up analysis saying like hey this is a clearly a compelling investment but then understanding okay you're going to be riding sort of this this macro benefit of let's say lower interest rates and that's going to drive the valuations to expand and then it also considers a technical analysis as well looking at price action and that is a key element that a lot of investors miss where as price action let's say starts giving you a red flag some investors just keep averaging down average down average down without actually saying well wait a second what's going on this is how a lot of investors blow up versus stanley druckenmiller where his approach is hey if i'm wrong i get out and he's constantly so he he does have higher turnover arguably than most investors than several of the other great investors but it is sort of approach of saying hey i'm going he's doing what what fits for his own personal journey and he's looking to say hey i only want to be in setups where the fundamentals make sense the liquidity makes sense he understands that framework and he also likes the technicals he likes a chart saying hey this is a favorable you know price action that i'm looking at so this this is really interesting perspective and it certainly reflects a willingness to change his opinion often so you know if the price action let's say starts going against him or there's something something changes about the macro you know the federal reserve starts changing their policy that will change his opinion a case in point march 2020 he blew out of stocks as he saw the price action start turning unfavorably but by april 2020 based on effectively the federal reserve going all in he was like okay let's buy it back now he didn't go he didn't he didn't go you know let's say balls to the wall on this and just go crazy you know aggressive but it's amazing to hear the open-mindedness he had to go completely out completely cash and then go back in just in april and that that reflects a certain open-mindedness than arguably most investors don't have and honestly even if they did they'd probably screw it up and so that's it is worth considering that willingness to change your mind and that's just so incredible and ultimately he has a deep passion for capital markets analyzing investments and i can i can certainly empathize with that work you know he he liked to say like look if i wasn't if i effectively didn't make billions of dollars i would have been doing this for free and that's an awesome thing to say i can empathize with that like that deep passion because like hey if i didn't have you the loyal youtube community i'd probably just be talking to the walls and the animals around here and you know lord knows i talk about stocks at family dinners and families just like oh god daniel please please skip daniel's turn let's move on to the next person so i'm grateful for you the youtube community where i can share my musings on the investments uh the investment horizon and the super investors and so what are sort of the key themes that he's considering right now so first of all he thinks the federal reserve as i already alluded to is incredibly incredibly reckless with their policies case in point with their buying tens of billions of housing-backed bonds each month we're already looking at housing scarcity home prices galloping higher does not make any sense for the federal reserve to be buying tens of billions of mortgage-based bonds currently and also the federal reserve should be forward-looking a lot of the indicators they're looking at are lagging this doesn't make any sense for them to be looking at employment right now when you know or to be having this hyper-aggressive action of buying 120 billion plus in securities per month right now when you need to be forward looking about where it could the market be in the future and that's another key attribute of how he thinks about investing is it's not what's going on right now it's what does the world look like in 18 months from now constantly looking at that time frame and he thinks this incredibly res reckless federal reserve has resulted in several little bubbles popping up per case in point with dogecoin or nfts and the speculative specs where you have multi-billion dollar valuation and immaterial revenue and he thinks those are all just byproducts of just incredibly loose monetary policy he's also incredibly cautious very cautious on u.s stocks in his own words he expects to make an exit by the end of the year why would he expect to make an exit by the end of the year once again it's thinking about where the federal reserve is going to be by the end of the year he's thinking hey look the federal reserve is ultimately going to start to have to tighten and once they do those growth stocks they're going to take a hit you know those long durated those those stocks that are effectively valued as long duration assets they're going to take a hit and so he thinks look once the federal reserve has to respond to that inflation boom these stocks u.s stocks are going to take a hit and look you look at you know dr michael burrie i called out in his investment portfolio he's arguably making a very similar bet you know he's he's buying puts on growth related you know etfs and he's making a big he's he has a big bet against tesla he's got a big bet against u.s treasury saying hey interest rates are going to go higher so these are all they're very similar to stanley druckenmiller effectively betting against the us dollar and what that what's that looking about looking like and he also talks about how the u.s bull run in his words it's going to end badly i just don't know when and i think that is very fitting to sort of understand look this is what the it's managing and watching the liquidity of the federal reserve once the federal reserve changes he's going to change his game as well and right now it's sort of it's it's still dancing because the music's playing but you can see that rotation in some some key indices like the growth etfs they're not making their new highs like they were previously and he's also long the things that are working the things that are breaking out with inflation effectively the reflation trade like commodities like oil and he's been short the u.s dollar and so it's it's interesting to see these bets that it's he he was major growth investor for all these years and now he's making these other bets based on what's working saying hey i think it's going to be inflation i think it's it's going to be owning these assets he's also bullish on china you know talking about how china represents about 25 percent of global gdp but less than two percent of global investment portfolios contrast that to the united states where the united states is about 25 of global gdp but over 28 of global investment portfolios so here's this huge mismatch between effectively gdp and investment portfolios and i honestly i i this this approach makes a lot of sense to me this this discrepancy makes a lot of sense to me because i look at a company like alibaba i made a video on it just a few weeks ago where it's one of the largest e-commerce companies in china and just based on its valuation based on its margins based on its cash flow profile i'm looking at you know dramatic you know risk-reward you know asymmetry where i'm like wow this this actually looks pretty compelling if this were a u.s stock i think it would be multiples higher in full disclosure i do own alibaba stock and also you know if if you're interested in you know once again following my personal journey i did call out in may a potential multibagger that i think trades below liquidation value does trade with the liquidation value and i think has two to three x upside over time so that's for going to unrivaled investing.com click on journey and so this these are some of the key aspects of what stanley druckenmiller is doing right now and what he's thinking about so one it's it's what's his approach which is find things that are working you know having a multi-disciplinary approach concentrated betting you know if things start going against you price action starts going against you it's not necessarily you know averaging down but sort of seeing hey what's going on with my thesis what are the fundamentals doing as well um and also he's looking at where is liquidity going what's going on right now he sees an incredibly reckless federal reserve policies in the u.s he sees incredibly reckless deficit spending and he honestly compared it sort of like the opposite of what you see with paul paul volcker and ronald reagan you know in the early 1980s which was the setup that drove a multi-decade bull run he's like the policies that we're enacting now are like the exact opposite of higher taxes higher spending you know more regulation reckless federal reserve policies this is the exact opposite that could potentially lead to decades of uninadequate returns for investors it's worth considering these these concerns and if this video highlighting stanley druckenmiller his approach and what he currently thinks of the markets has been helpful to you
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