저자: 웅덩이매매법 · 한국인
요약 보기
8개월 만의 공포구간(웅덩이) 도래로 가격조정보다 시간조정이 진행 중이며 매수 기회라고 주장. 이란-이스라엘 긴장과 금리인하 후퇴가 하락 요인이나, 전쟁 후 3개월 뒤 상승 확률 60%라는 과거 데이터 제시. 장기적으로 2030년까지 전쟁은 기회이며 웅덩이 때 단계적 매수 및 현금 확보 권유. 자신의 과거 수익(계좌 수익률 등)을 강조하고 멤버십 가입을 유도함.
다듬은 글
We can see data showing more red declines than expected. In other words, war is indeed bad news for the stock market. Hello, this is Develo Most, am starting by revealing my account details again today. This is an account where the profit of 10 million won, which had risen by 20 million won yesterday, has dropped back down exactly.
Due to yesterday's sharp drop, my US direct investment account saw 10 million won in profit evaporate in a single day, despite a 72% return and 128 million won in gains. My domestic account currently shows a 69% return and 8.1 million won in profit. Including the profit from the second account, foreign exchange gains, and 20 million won in Bitcoin profit, I am currently maintaining a total profit of approximately 200 million won.
In yesterday's video, I introduced Mark Miner-Binny's view that a bullish "fake" can appear before a correction. Was Thursday's rise really a bullish fake appearing before a correction? We can see the US stock market plummeting suddenly due to concerns about a war between Iran and Israel. Currently, it has been stuck in a sideways trading range for over two months, exhausting both you and me through a time correction rather than a price correction.
However, a strong opening wave emerged that completely swallowed up the surge from the day before yesterday, bringing the front line back up. You can see the Nasdaq has touched. In doing so, you can confirm that the market is once again on the verge of touching the 60-day moving average (the black line), which is the second mass timing point for the Puddle Trading Method.
This is why I waited instead of making additional purchases despite the surge on Thursday; opportunities always come again. Now, everyone, there are two types of corrections: price corrections, which cause fear and anxiety as prices fall, and time corrections, which create a boring situation by crawling sideways and consolidating, leaving us feeling weary.
So far, we can see that the US stock market has been undergoing a time correction from March to April, crawling sideways and consolidating. In price corrections, the stock price falls and reaches the mass timing point for the Puddle Trading Method; however, in time corrections, the moving average follows the price up to where it is while the price moves sideways, thereby reaching the mass timing point.
Therefore, if you are thinking, "This isn't a puddle right now," studying these types of corrections again will be very helpful. Now, if you look at yesterday's map, you can see a "sea of blood" for the first time in a long while. It literally looks like inflation is going to rebound, and interest rate cuts are being pushed back.
It seemed likely to decline, and with concerns over a war between Israel and Iran, there was actually no reason for a rise. In other words, it is the perfect time for a correction. Furthermore, as the earnings season began in earnest yesterday, banking firms such as JP Morgan, BlackRock, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo released their results; while all reported better-than-expected earnings, they presented worse-than-expected future outlooks.
This is the reason why stock prices failed to rise despite the banks' strong earnings; JP Morgan even plummeted a whopping 6.5% following its earnings announcement. Now, with inflation rebounding and talk of a return of 1970, interest rates—originally planned for six times this year—have been reduced to just two, and there are even calls for rate hikes.
On top of that, one morning I woke up to fears of war due to Iran retaliating against Israel. In a situation like this, would most new investors be able to enter the stock market? Most would absolutely not. Moreover, 999% of existing investors—the retail investors—fall into a panic, thinking they will sell now and buy back once things stabilize.
However, because stock prices rise first even when the situation hasn't calmed down, retail investors end up buying at the peak every time. So, as these excuses for fear have emerged, we are suddenly on the verge of entering a zone of fear, after having been in a greed zone for months. And regarding the magnitude of this opportunity, this is the first zone of fear to arrive in eight months since last August.
Back then, it was the US credit rating downgrade and the Hamas war broke out. And there are a tiny minority of investors who act contrary to the majority. In other words, there are investors who are slowly showing greed in this zone of fear where it looks like it will fall further. I told you that no one can predict how far the market will drop or how long it will last.
In other words, what we can control is not to be terrified and scared like everyone else, but to look for investors every day and proceed with staggered buying at the right timing. Now, the main reason for the stock market decline yesterday is the increased likelihood that Iran will attack Israel this weekend.
As I was producing this video, news broke that Iran had seized a vessel linked to Israel, and Israel has warned that they will pay the price. Also, if we look at northern Israel right now, continuous siren signals are being emitted. Since attacks usually take place at night or in the early morning, we can only hope that it passes without incident.
However, U.S. intelligence is the best in the world. U.S. President Biden has been taking the stance that Iran might attack Israel in the near future, based on the world's best intelligence. Concerns about geopolitical conflict are growing because he believes a real attack by Iran is possible and has stated that he will support Israel's defense.
Investors are afraid that the situation will escalate further, because the U.S. has also urgently deployed Aegis destroyers to defend Israel. I can only hope that this concludes without any major incidents. Now, as capitalist investors, we need to study what would have happened to U.S. stocks if a war had broken out.
If you look closely, unlike the data I usually show you, you can see surprisingly many red (downward) declines. In other words, war is indeed bad news for the stock market. However, it does not necessarily lead to a decline. In fact, starting three months after the war began, there was a 60% probability that stock prices would actually rise.
Therefore, the best choice we can make is to hold the stock and, if a correction decline occurs, take the time to accumulate shares through staggered buying. Also, the data I just showed indicated a maximum of one year ahead, but you and I are considering the long-term strategy for Woongju. I am an investor.
From the outbreak of the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Gulf War, the Iraq War, the Russia War, to the recent Israel-Hamas war, I believe that if we look not just one year ahead but toward 2030 and invest with me, there is a very high probability that the current war is actually an opportunity.
To give you an example, a bear market came two years ago in 2022 due to the Russia war. If you had consolidated with me at that time, you could have realized nearly double your profits by now. Last August, a -11% correction occurred due to the Israel-Hamas war; if you "welded" with me then, you could have seen a 30% profit in just eight months.
If you invested 100 million won, it was a timing where 30 million won grew on its own. Therefore, the probability that the same will apply this time is high. If the market falls due to war, take a long-term view and invest aggressively with me; as time passes, a significant reward will come your way.
However, I sometimes see comments like this: "When it hits a puddle, there is always no cash to buy." When I mention that we are currently in an extremely overheated zone, citing consecutive months of gains, 10 consecutive weeks of gains, and a 27% increase in trading volume, if you do not have a cash reserve...
I advised you to make sure to increase your cash holdings through rebalancing. How long are you going to act like the majority, repeating this cycle of regretting not having enough money to buy whenever a correction comes, and then buying at the peak again? Since the market has risen so much, a correction is perfectly normal.
Now, it seems the mass buying timing for Woongjin that we have been waiting for is finally here. A zone of fear is about to arrive, eight months after the correction last August. If we check the stock prices at that time, the market endured a tedious -11% correction over a long period of three months.
This means that despite last year's record-breaking bull market, a -11% correction occurred over three months. This was a crisis for the majority, but an opportunity for me and a very small number of Woongjin members. I have brought my October membership Telegram data; I provided real-time buying instructions via the membership Telegram in that black circle.
Although it seemed like it would fall further and the bear market would continue, I mustered the courage to make staggered purchases of Woongjin, and as a result, my second account is showing a return of about 30% in just eight months. Even that suit Since then, I have consistently applied the first phase of the "Pot" trading strategy's mass timing whenever the price touched the 20-day moving average, yet I am still achieving such high returns.
Do you understand now why you must buy during a pothole? That way, you have ample cash to buy, managing your mental state is much easier, and you secure opportunity costs and a margin of safety, which has the advantage of quickly converting into profits. Furthermore, a pothole has appeared due to a time correction, and it seems likely that a price correction will follow as well.
In other words, a full-fledged opportunity is arriving for the first time in eight months. Will you miss this opportunity here, or will you seize it? If you wish to watch my mass timing in real-time and seize this opportunity that has come after eight months, please check the pinned comment and join my membership so that we can be among the select few who seize this opportunity together.
Rockefeller, who became an American oil tycoon by seizing countless opportunities, said this about opportunity: " Those who resent that opportunity does not come are admitting their own incompetence." In other words, in a pothole situation like this, the majority will perceive it with fear of crisis and resentfully wonder when their opportunity will finally come, but the very few Woongjun- ers...
The point is to observe the "pool" situation, accept it as an opportunity, and subsequently experience a jump in your assets. In other words, the same situation unfolds for everyone, and while this opportunity is given to everyone, it depends on whether you seize it or not. Furthermore, your knowledge and choices accumulate and determine whether you become a wealthy person or a poor one.
Personally, I do not think I will miss this opportunity that has come after eight months. I believe the membership fee is not a waste at all to be able to seize this opportunity. Receiving tutoring or lessons is all about getting help from someone better than yourself to improve yourself. Therefore, you should use me to extract even more value.
I, too, wanted to buy heavily while waiting for this "pool," but I held back with small purchases. Now that I have waited, it seems a full-scale opportunity to rise is coming. Let's seize this opportunity together. And let's use time to live. Try not to sell as much as possible and hold on for as long as you can.
Since there are no better investment opportunities even if you sell anyway, unless it is money you absolutely must use, just leaving it alone is the best choice. That is all for today's video. If my video was .
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