저자: Kevin · 외국인
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Fed 및 대형은행 실적을 근거로 자동차 대출 연체 위험과 물가 하락(디플레이션) 흐름을 짚는다. JP모건 실적 악화는 대손충당금 선반영에 따른 착시이며 향후 V자 또는 U자 회복 가능성이 있다고 주장. 물가가 낮아 금리 인상 가능성이 작다고 보고, 이중 침체 우려에도 불구하고 2월 이후 거의 매일 매수해 왔고 물가 급등 등 명확한 신호가 없는 한 매수를 지속하겠다고 밝힘. 유튜브 커뮤니티 설문에서는 약 2/3가 추가 폭락을 예상.
다듬은 글
hey everyone Kevin here today I have a substantial update for you on key findings coming to us from not only the Federal Reserve but also large commercial banks like JPMorgan Chase I'm going to be breaking down these key findings so we can understand what's going on right now in the economy obviously we know things are shut down but if you're interested at all and making money in the stock market in the economy in investing in real estate this video is for you because I'm going to summarize and comment on the top most important things and some of these things are surprisingly shocking so let's get started and go right into it number one a lot of us are focused on the mortgage crisis but we're slightly blind to a potential crisis in autos that is a lot of folks might be in a position to where they cannot make their lease payments or their actual auto payments this could lead it to a cluster of defaults in the auto sector that's going to be something specifically we want to pay attention to as defaults begin to rise in addition to that the Federal Reserve is reporting that auto dealers are almost completely dead even though a lot of them are remaining open as they've called their service departments essential services which somewhat makes sense for auto repair they're still trying to sell cars but the Federal Reserve found that dealers are expecting March sales to be lower than a year ago that makes sense with sales close to zero in April and auto dealers are reporting significantly lower prices for used cars and new cars than they have before which that almost sounds like a car ad commercial because I feel like we're always hearing the discounts on cars but the fact that they're expecting sales to be close to zero in April is quite concerning for autos make sense why we're seeing Ford get punished so much in fact for just took on new loans to stay afloat and they're paying 10% interest on those loans also because of all the money the Federal Reserve is printing a lot of us have been concerned what is going to happen with inflation well right now and this is pretty typical during a recession inflation is actually declining to where we might actually see deflation despite all of the money printing that Jerome Powell is doing over at the Fed part of this is due to falling oil prices part of this is also due to high unemployment anytime the unemployment rate goes way up the cost of labor tends to go down we actually see less inflation because of that however there are reports of the prices of eggs and certain necessities nearly doubling where prices of premium foods by contrast are falling due to decreased demand one grocer noted that unsold premium steaks were being turned into ground beef because ground beef was out of stock on top of this the Federal Reserve is finding a lot of absenteeism and some people decide not to go to work it's unclear whether they're filing for unemployment because they're choosing not to go to work or they don't want to go to work a for fear of getting sick obviously big hits to manufacturing is a lot of manufacturing is a shutdown like manufacturing for cars and washing machines Tesla's Fremont facility is shut down then interestingly hospitals are also reporting declining revenues as a people postpone their elective surgeries which are usually a lot more profitable for the hospitals as far as real estate according to the Federal Reserve residential real estate conditions have held steady through the entire month of March and at the beginning of April they're starting to see a decline in sales volume but not yet a decline in prices though the expectation is because a lot of deals are getting delayed because of what's happening we're probably not going to see changes in sales prices until late April or May remember real estate takes a little bit of time to catch up to what's happening in a market like this sometimes real estate can lead but in this case real estate is following and so far the at least the data that we've been pulling here on this channel Real Estate's been holding up at least through the first week of April stay tuned of course for more updates on real estate now in terms of banks a lot of banks are actually noticing substantial increases in cash deposits we're also seeing the Federal Reserve Note massive increases in the amount of commercial loans outstanding this is partially because a lot of companies are taking on loans or they're doing something known as their credit lines which is kinda similar to taking an advance on your credit card except the interest rate is way low and their parking that cash into bank accounts so banks have more cash which is good because then banks have more money to lend which is good it keeps sort of the wheels of the system greased and a lot of people are taking money out of these credit lines which I've recommended doing as well because there are some banks who are strapped for cash actually freezing and credit lines so a little bit of good news and bad news here but this is also a good point where I can talk a little bit about what's happening over at Chase by the way quick note before I get into the crazy things happening at JP Morgan and Chase and this sort of lie of an earnings report this is a kind of an expose here on the stock market I do want to encourage you to join me in my programs linked below I go live every day at 9:00 a.m.
when the market is open and you get some incredible course content as well use that coupon code extended through the end of the month as we wait for those stimulus checks now something substantially that I noticed is actually quite different from what I saw reported by a magazine like fortune 4 to mention that JP Morgan profits plunge almost 70% as the first big banks report they're ravaged earnings well that's not what I actually found in the earnings reports the first thing I noticed is that cash deposits like cash chase has on hand went from 1.5 trillion dollars in December to 1.8 trillion dollars of substantial increase over the last two quarters that we've seen but also compared to this fortune article I'm not seeing the 70 percent losses here and the reason for that is something very simple called the provision for credit losses basically chase went in and said all right here's our JP Morgan division we normally put aside 1.4 billion dollars for losses on loans like people not paying their credit cards or their mortgages or whatever they usually set aside 1.4 billion dollars that's what they set aside in quarter 4 of 2019 well in quarter one of 2020 they did set aside almost five and a half times that at JP Morgan alone they set aside eight point two billion dollars for losses on the consumer side they did the same thing they set aside an additional four point five a billion dollars for credit card losses another 1.3 billion dollars in losses for corporate and investment banks another 900 million dollars for commercial banking sectors in other words they took this money and kind of earmarked it thinking that okay we might lose all of this money that we set aside they didn't actually lose it yet in other words this earnings report is actually really really good because what it does is we get articles like this that say JPMorgan profits plunge almost a 70% and that's like oh my gosh that's terrible the world is ending well next quarter when there are mortgage losses and there are credit card losses we're not going to see that bad news anymore because it's already been announced they've already set aside met like billions here for credit reserves which is really really good because even though we're expecting really bad earnings going forward if companies just report really bad earnings right now which we're expecting and then they start reporting normal earnings as our economy normalizes again we might actually see that you shaped or v-shaped recovery happen rather than a big secondary crash now I know a lot of us are thinking no no no once earnings come out we're gonna see a big fat W and a secondary crisis a double-dip is coming but if every company continues to report earnings like this and especially if they over set-aside that is they put more money aside and they're more conservative I don't know we might not see it in other words losses will have to be substantially more than the massive sums of money they already set aside which is like five to six times the normal losses of money that they're setting a sign this is a lot of money set aside and to me this is a little bit of a trick in terms of what's going on in the stock market so you want to keep an eye on this because this is actually really good news now here are a few more updates obviously we're seeing hotels in hospital the workforce reductions of like 90% there basically shut down and because of this companies are actually relaxing temporary background checks and drug tests for people that they're hiring so there might be an opportunity for a lot more people to get a job who otherwise could not have which makes sense at a time like this now I want to show another piece of data here from the Federal Reserve because a lot of us are looking to Bitcoin for potential safety especially as we see you know Jerome Powell again cranking the money printer so we're thinking you know what we might want to shift at least some of our investments to maybe something that will be more protected against inflation this is an incredible graph I'm gonna share this right now but before I do make sure to get your two free socks with we bulb when you deposit just a hundred dollars you will get up to fourteen hundred dollars in free stocks and at the very least you're going to get an awesome stock trading platform that really helps to keep track of what's happening in the futures market what's happening after hours and pre market Weebl also has the largest extended hours for trading I have ever seen they let you trade pre market from 4:00 a.m.
to 929 AMS market opens right after that and then from 4:00 p.m. after the market closes all the way to 8:00 p.m. that's insane that's a really big pre and post market trading window so I want to take a moment here and zoom out and look at the Consumer Price Index this is CPI this is generally how we measure inflation and we can notice the last time we saw a dramatic decline in inflation was actually an almost four percent decline in the measurement in November of 2008 which is a huge drop during the last crisis we have not seen that kind of negative inflation or basically deflation well basically ever but we saw some shortly after a 9/11 but let's zoom in a little bit more recently here so let's narrow this chart down and let's see what's happening just in the last few years and of course the last few months so when we zoom in here we're gonna find that our last reading here is actually from March of 2020 and we are showing a reading of negative one point almost 1% so almost negative 1.1 percent as an inflation a reading this is at the same time as trillions of dollars are being printed the last time we saw a decline like this was in January of 2015 where we had a decline of 1.5 percent which is very substantial but you could see things have kind of sort of bounced around this one to one and a half percent range in the positive the feds goal obviously is on an annual basis to have inflation be around 2% but this is a substantial decline here despite the money printing that's going on which is definitely shocking it's also going to be shocking to see what the data looks like in April but for now this is the best we have so putting this data together is obviously difficult I ran a community poll on YouTube and almost two-thirds of you believed that this is just the beginning we are going to see substantial crashes and reductions and stock market values and prices going forward especially as more news breaks over corporate earnings and how bad things really are once we actually get a true picture of unemployment numbers and you know what this could absolutely happen but so far as the data comes out right now I'm not seeing inflation which means we're probably not going to see interest rates ramped up if we saw a lot of inflation happening right now and interest rates had to come up yeah we would see a really a nasty future coming our way but we're seeing deflation we're actually seeing the opposite which means hey you know what Jerome keep printing keep those rates low which is mind-blowing it doesn't make sense it's confusing also the first round of corporate earnings that we're seeing and it's not just chase it's also Goldman Sachs their earnings report looks just like this Bank of America they're all doing the same thing they're over reporting massive losses in the first quarter it's almost like the CEOs are going you know what everybody's freaking out right now let's just give them all the bad news now so that in q2 3 & 4 of this year all we have to give them is great news because they're expecting the bad news now so give them what they're expecting and then when they're expecting bad news going forward it's gonna be good news and the stocks are gonna rally it I don't know obviously all I want to suggest is let's look at the data very closely here and if you're starting to feel like wow things are just all messed up and manipulated totally don't blame you personally though the more and more I tracked these earnings releases the more and more I tracked this data coming from the Federal Reserve the more and more I actually feel comfortable continuing to buy on read days so far I have bought on almost every single read day since the beginning of February over the last a two and a half a months here and I plan to continue at this point I do not see a reason to stop buying I would only stop buying if I really started seeing inflation skyrocket and I started seeing numbers that actually concern me in these earnings reports again I know bad news is coming I'm not trying to say there will not be a double dip but based on this information I don't know so let me know your perspective get your quote and sign up for life insurance within just a five minutes Lauren and I signed up and it was somewhere between 35 to 45 dollars per month pretty inexpensive folks join me in the courses down below ]
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