저자: KevinGao?미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
Bessent가 연내 금리 150~175bp 인하(9월 50bp 포함)를 주장하고, 트럼프의 파월 제소 가능성을 언급. 진행자는 시장 기대(9월 인하 거의 확정, 연내 2~3회 인하)를 제시하며 CPI 근원 상품 인플레이션 가속을 근거로 파월의 대응이 늦었다고 봄. 트럼프 제소 시 장단기 금리차(210 스프레드) 급등 가능성을 우려. 엔비디아 H20 수출·중국 반도체 규제 등도 다룸. 광고(360 카메라)는 제외.
다듬은 글
We we should probably be 150 175 basis points lower. Scott Besson calls for interest rates to be about 150 basis points lower than where they are today. He calls for a 50 basis point cut in September. And Donald Trump just gave us insights into how he might end up suing Jerome Powell. We've got a lot to break down here along with what's going on with Russia and secondary sanctions.
Uh there's so much information. We're just going to break it down and give you the best of insights possible. As we go into this, I want to give you a quick heads up that current interest rate expectations based on the market's outlook, not uh the Federal Reserve's outlook or Bessant or Trump's outlook is that we are going to get at least one rate cut September 17th.
that is now fully priced in with a 101% chance of happening. Uh by October 29th, we are pricing in a 69% chance of a second rate cut. And by December 10th, we are looking at the potential for 2 and a half rate cuts with that final third rate cut coming uh by my birthday, January 28th. Uh and then a couple more rate cuts priced in for 2026.
Now, what that's just a quick little market update there. What is the information that we just heard from Trump and then we'll get into what Basson is telling us as well as what's going on with this negotiation. My prediction for this negotiation with Putin on Friday. So, first, Donald Trump just moments ago told us that Powell took a building that could have been painted and fixed up and it said what they did is they built a basement under the building that's next to the Ptoic River.
So, we've analyzed this before. We've done a full breakdown video on this. We've looked at uh you know Google Maps, which we can do again. We've done all this, but basically where the Federal Reserve building is right now is it used to be a swamp. In fact, that whole area used to be a swamp. If you go just into Google Maps and you type in the Lincoln Memorial and you zoom into the Lincoln Memorial, all of this was a swamp.
Uh all this green over here, which is the National Park, part of uh you know, the National Mall right here. Uh and then uh the White House over here. This is all swamp land and the Federal Reserve building is right Federal Reserve Board. Yeah, it's it's right here on Constitution A. It's one of these.
Let's go to the actual if we zoom in. Oh, yeah. Here we go. Federal Reserve buildings right here. Here's the construction site. They just acquired this building right next door. Uh they owned this building in the back as well. Uh they've got some other buildings around the corner as well. But the point is they keep sort of expanding how many buildings they have.
And so yes, this area is all in a swampy territory. That is correct, Mr. Trump. Uh and so Trump says basically he's arguing that Powell, you know, should have never done this renovation. He should have never built this basement. It's the least valuable portion of the real estate anyway. Why are they doing this?
Obviously, the Fed's going to argue that this was approved by Congress and committees and so many other people were involved and they did it because DC has height restrictions and so they have to build down instead of up and they want everyone together in one place in the campus because they want their economists together and then Trump is going to argue well what good are your economists when my data is better than your data which obviously we know Donald Trump is very willing to in his administration manipulate data for example uh what we saw yesterday with the entire uh you know sort of Trump team, Levit, Bessant, they were all talking about how oh inflation's only working out to 1.9% annualized over the last 6 months.
And really what they're doing is they're looking at the chart going okay let's ignore November and December's higher inflation levels. uh sorry this is November, December, January uh and let's just take the last six months of data including the low inflation that we had in March where we actually had negative.1 on month overmonth CPI.
That's just that's that includes food and energy. So these are not core prices. And let's just average these six lower bars over here which we know we're just starting to see some of the impact of inflation on uh you know from tariffs on overall uh consumer prices. Mind you though this is just month over month so it's not core.
So it's fluctuate it fluctuates by the push down that you get from energy prices and food prices coming down. Let's just take these convenient 6 months right here add it together works out to about 0.9 and double it works out to about 1.9. That's how they're coming up with the data which is really a manipulation of data because when we look at the data more closely we see that ah we see the underlying inflation story in core goods really rapidly picking up over here which is a red flag because the trajectory is what we should be concerned about.
If we have stable services, core services inflation and core goods are skyrocketing, then we've got a problem uh and an inflationary problem. This is exactly what Powell's worried about. Now, of course, Trump using this sort of noncore cherrypick data argues, well, Powell's too late. You know, there's no inflation.
Even though we're seeing the inflation pop up in the latest CPI reports under the hood, when we peel back the layers, we go, ah, crap. you know, annualized rates of inflation in areas where we're affected by tariffs are moving up. Uh even what we see with uh look for example at overall if we include goods and services together.
So just core inflation rates, we have a six-month annualized rate of 2.4 which in the last 3 months has gone up to 2.8 and in the last month has gone up to 3.8. That's bad. you know, soon we're going to have core inflation somewhere between four to 5% as some of these tariffs work through uh towards the second half of the year.
Of course, you know, Donald Trump is setting up his argument to sue drum Powell. Now, how could he do this? Well, by arguing that you don't need all these economists, your job is interest rates. And because you don't need all these economists, because your economists aren't valuable anyway, because my choice of data is better than your choice of data, then I'm going to sue you for basically sucking at your job.
This is what Donald Trump is setting up. Now, this is where the question of sovereign immunity comes in. See, sovereign immunity bars lawsuits against federal officials for official acts. But there's an important phrase there, for official acts. Donald Trump is going to argue ultraas which is basically a way of saying hey you acted outside of your legal authority and this renovation is totally outside of monetary policies that are delegated to the Federal Reserve.
Uh, and we think that I mean this is a potential argument they could make that uh you were corrupt or gave contracting deals to your friends or your homies or your buddies and you blew money that was out of your scope to spend anyway. So there really three ways you could play this. Two of them are very similar.
One is you argue fraud, self-deing, and corruption to Sue Powell. The other is you argue you doing a renovation for more economists is totally outside your scope of duty and therefore against the law and this is how you could sort of pierce the sovereign immunity claim. And the third one, which is very similar to the other one here, is that you could argue through the Administrative Procedures Act that what Jerome Powell is doing with this renovation is quote arbitrary, capriccious, and an abuse of discretion or otherwise not in accordance with law and in excess of statutory jurisdiction, authority or limitations.
So, in like in just plain English basically, a full summary of all this here is Donald Trump's going to make this argument by suing Trump that you built a building in a swamp for people we don't need because my data is better than yours and you gave contracting deals to your homies. Therefore, you're a fraud and we're suing you.
But we'll drop the lawsuit if you step down. That's my prediction of what Trump is going to do because I'm trying to understand how could Donald Trump sue somebody who is, you know, a federal official and you can't uh because they're protected by uh sovereign immunity, you know, for things that they're doing within their official acts.
But here is a way that you could make it happen. So here is how Donald Trump could sue Jerome Powell and why. And again, Donald Trump's not looking under the hood for this inflation data. He is looking at, hey, uh, what can I do to get rid of him? This is exactly what they did to Cougler. And see, this morning we actually had Scott Besson give us some insight into what happened to Cougler.
See, Cougler all of a sudden said she's leaving the Federal Reserve Board. She's going to go back to teaching at Georgetown. Now, Georgetown is a Washington DC school. Donald Trump's children went there. Tiffany, Ivanka, and I think it was Eric. It was either Eric or Don. I think it was Eric. All three of them went to Georgetown.
Ivanka didn't end up graduating there. She ended up going to Penn, but Tiffany got a JD there. So, Trump has a lot of connections to Georgetown. Georgetown's also, you know, not trying to get uh a UCLA or a Harvard uh or a Colombia pulled on them. So, I wouldn't be surprised if Donald Trump orchestrated Kougler leaving the Fed by basically saying, "Hey, we won't prosecute you, Georgetown, or we won't come after you and demand hundreds of millions of dollars or whatever.
If you just make a sweet offer to Cougler, pay her more money or whatever you got to do. Get her to go back to work for you so she leaves the Fed. Then we have an opening and then we can put our Trojan horse into the Fed." That's what I think Trump did here. And this morning, Bessant basically confirmed that in my opinion because he went on Bloomberg and he's like, "Well, she was very political.
Uh, and uh, you know, she she wanted rate cuts. She wanted a foamed runway for Kla Harris, but now for Trump doesn't want to lower rates." And uh, it's really interesting because it totally again ignores the data of what was going on last summer with jobs when we got our first sort of early warning signs of what was going on.
Uh but uh it's shocking because it really tells you that Donald Trump has a lot of power and he's looking at every angle possible to get what he wants with the Fed. From ripping people out of the Fed board, basically trying to gut the Fed board from the inside out to going as far as potentially announcing a Fed chair sooner.
Uh now Scott Besson initially chaired this idea about having a shadow fed which he now doesn't agree with which is basically appointing somebody in the background to start making announcements about like what they're going to do in the future to discredit Jerome Powell. Uh Bessant has walked that back.
But Donald Trump did tell us this morning that he's open to uh announcing a chair sooner rather than later. Usually you would hear it by December uh for a May appointment, but we'll see. Uh so we do expect this lawsuit to come from Donald Trump against the Fed as well, which isn't good. It's going to lead to a higher spread between the 10-year and the 2-year.
We can look at that in just a moment as well. Uh, and then we'll we'll talk a little bit about what's going on with some of these other things that Bessant said regarding rate cuts and uh what's going on with um tariff revenue from Nvidia. But first, take a look at this. The 10-year down 5.8 basis points today, which is great.
But if we look at the 210 spread, I hate that it doesn't do that. 210 spread CNBC. There we go. I always have to Google it to get to it. Hey, bullish Google stock, I guess. Uh, but anyway, let's get it to load here. So, the 210 spread this morning was at 57 basis points. If Donald Trump actually That's at 55 now.
If Donald Trump actually sues Jerome Powell, I expect that this is going to skyrocket, which is dangerous because it could happen around the same time that we end up getting our August jobs data after Jackson Hole. And I think Jerome Powell is going to be very keen to the heat uh underneath under the hood of these inflation reports which will be really not great because you'll get a hawkish Fed.
Uh at the same time you'll get a bad jobs report while you've got Besson at the administration clamoring for fat rate cuts. You know, you've got Bessant saying we should start with a 50 basis point cut in September, which we will get if we get another bad jobs report, plus another 150 to 175 basis points of cuts in total off of where we are now soon.
So, Besson basically wants to see rates back at 2.75 to three, which is probably realistic if we don't have tariff inflation. With tariff inflation, it's not. But if we have a recession, you're not going to have tariff inflation anyway. You're going to have deflation and so you're going to cut rates to zero really rapidly.
That said, Besson did tell us some other things. He told us that he thinks Nvidia export license revenue will be higher uh than a lot of people expect. Uh he also said that he does not support ending the monthly jobs reporting at the BLS. This is actually really good. I'm kind of grateful to hear that Bessant has like at least some reasonleness.
I think that's why markets like Bessant more than Nutlick. uh because he does have some like intelligence and reasonleness that comes through. So, I'm grateful to hear that he doesn't support ending the monthly jobs data at the BLS. I think that would be bad. Uh he just suggests that there's been some sloppiness and it's time for some cleanup, which I think that's totally fair.
He says he's committed to keeping inflation expectations low and that we inherited big deficits and then goes on to talk about how we got to lower deficits, which is really ironic given that we just spent over $3 trillion on a big beautiful bill. But, you know, I I don't think uh politicians uh are really opposed to saying things that are ironic, like uh Bess saying you shouldn't come to DC to line your pocket when he was talking about insider trading from congressmen and women.
But the irony there is Trump is probably the king at getting rich off politics from events at his golf courses or memberships or you know Jensen Hong paying a million dollars to go to a dinner with Trump to try to get exemptions from tariffs like Trump is profiting left and right uh uh by doing events uh around politics and and his involvement with crypto or mega cap or donations to his campaigns or political action funds or his you Saudi jet.
Like, let's be clear, if anybody's making gold, it's Trump. But in fairness, uh I I agree with what Bessant says. Besson says that people in the House and Senate should be working for the American people, not trading single stocks. And so should we should have a single stock ban and holding periods.
Actually a big fan of that. I think that's totally reasonable. Uh and and he makes it pretty clear like there's leaked information over there. like it's not a coincidence that these, you know, these trades work out well often for these politicians. Anyway, uh then he talks about secondary tariffs coming to India and not China.
Like he's asked about secondary tariffs coming to China, but says we're not ready to commit to that yet. And this is probably because China honestly has this, I think, by the rare earth balls. And I think China is a lot more powerful of a negotiator than anybody's really letting on. And China's not very happy.
Donald Trump just extended the China tariff negotiation another 90 days and now China is urging companies not to use the H20 chips from Nvidia uh especially you know for state and government work. Now it's not really a a complete ban although some say it could end up being a ban there. There some notes all over the place on this.
So the information is reporting that there is a ban. Bloomberg is reporting that there's just a an encouragement not to use chips from Micron uh from Nvidia or from AMD. So, it's a little unclear uh you know exactly what's going on with those chip restrictions. But I think the reality is China is a very strong negotiator because not only do they hold leverage over us with Taiwan, if they took Taiwan, 90% of our advanced chip manufacturing would be gone.
So this constant sort of looming threat of China invading Taiwan is is a very real risk for us even having access to chips at all. Us getting access to rare earths is also pretty dang critical. Uh, and in the face of all this, Chinese tech companies are actually starting to do really well, especially chipmaking companies, because people are like, "Oh, well, if China is going to ban exposure to US chips, let's invest in Chinese chips." Like, here's one, Capricorn Technologies Corp.
up 255% over the last year. It's ticker symbol 688256 which I think it's pretty entertaining that it's 256 you know this is like you know bits 256 bits right Shaw 256 security all this sort of stuff uh you know you get the 2 56 gigabyte iPhone right uh anyway so um kind of a cool ticker since they all use numbers over there I think the 256 is a pretty fair number but anyway uh you know, these it's to me it's very likely that China is pointing at concerns over location trafficking and chips or security concerns related to them just like they were worried about Tesla farming data from FSD cameras or Apple farming data uh and then China banning Apple and Tesla from government or state or sensitive locations or industries.
But what China really wants to do is maximize their rare earth and Taiwan leverage for as long as possible to prop up Huawei and other Chinese companies to make advanced chips so that they don't have to rely on Nvidia or AMD. Nvidia and AMD in the meantime are like, "No, no, please let us sell chips.
Even if we have to pay a 15% tariff, we make so much money off them. Please let us sell these chips." Because I wonder, let me see really quick. the H20 uh nanometers. How many nanometers is that chip? H20 chip uh Nvidia because the reason I'm bringing this up is ah interesting okay it's a 7 nanometer chip.
So the AI supply chain issues that we face is there's a limited amount of manufacturing that we could do on the two and three nanometer scale which this is where your most advanced uh chips are being made. Blackwell Nvidia nanometers should be two or three. Uh oh, it's actually four. So Blackwell's on four.
I'm surprised by that. I thought I thought it would be lower by now. Anyway, the next generation will end up being on three. But the point is the smaller the nanometer spacing, the better and the more advanced, but there's a limited amount of manufacturing capacity we have for those smaller nanometer uh dimensions.
So the H20 uses the 7. So the reason Nvidia wants that so much is because think about it like this. Imagine somebody told you you can make and sell a hundred glasses of lemonade and a 100 glasses of orange juice because you have an orange machine that'll make you 100 glasses of orange juice and a lemonade machine that'll make you 100 glasses of lemonade.
But then somebody comes in and says, "Oh no, you're actually banned from selling orange juice." You're like, "Well, I can't use the orange machine to make more lemonade." Come on. Like what if I pay a 15% export license for the orange juice? like my profit margin is still 50%. And okay, who cares? Maybe it goes down to 40% or whatever net net of everything.
I want to sell oranges. The point there is you have totally different capacities for manufacturing. And that's why Nvidia is willing to do this because otherwise they're not utilizing uh an avenue of revenue to sell these oranges, the H20 chips. and the H20 chip manufacturing lines aren't busy making Lemonade because they can't because it's a different line.
So that's, you know, one of the reasons why uh Nvidia is really keen on getting these these lowerc cost chips out. It's just also billions of dollars worth of revenue. So you know, China is then trying to do like backdoor limitations on these chips where they say things like, "Oh, we don't want you to use chips that have a certain energy profile." And then that energy profile is like just restrictive enough to ban the H20.
But companies are still using the H20 because without the H20, a lot of, you know, industry experts say that costs for Chinese inference are going to be three to six times as high. So they they're kind of still held by the balls and they need the H20s. So all of this is kind of very interesting because each side has a lot of leverage over the other.
China doesn't want their companies to need the H20, but they need them. The United States doesn't want to be reliant on China for rare earths or frankly Taiwan for semiconductor manufacturing. But it's probably going to be 5 years before we're self-reliant on rare earths with the MP material direct investments uh by you know the department of defense, the US government as well as the buildout of manufacturing capacity.
You know Intel's just doing a crap job. So it kind of sucks. But when you put all of that together, it's not a surprise that we're not hearing good news out of negotiating with China because things just aren't going well with China. And so that's why it's also not a surprise that Scott Besson is kind of like, "Oh, the Europeans need to join us on secondary tariffs." No, Scott Bessant, you all guys, you all can't negotiate secondary tariffs on Chinese oil imported from Russia because you're already failing at negotiating with China because they are very powerful and we need China.
As much as we like to say that we don't need China, we can make everything here, we can't. So, when we put all this together, what we really have sort of a bottom line out of this segment is we have a coupon code Jhole at meetc.com. That means it expires in about 11 days. And so, you actually it's less than that.
So, you should really take advantage of the J-Hole coupon because there's going to be a big price increase because I mentioned just as an example this morning uh we mentioned that Tesla at 347 is not the place to go bullish on Tesla. Take your tendies because it's hard to make bets that it's going to go above 347.
And look at what it did today. Sometimes, it's not to be bearish, but sometimes the, "Hey, this is great. Tesla 347. I know it might be tempting to go for calls for like 400 or whatever." Sometimes the suggestion not to do that is just as valuable as the suggestion where on Monday I said it's going to be 347 within 48 hours and it was.
over at me.com. But that said, I think a a big bottom line out of all of this is you've got negotiations not going well with China. We're not really going to get anywhere with these negotiations with Russia because Zilinsky this morning reiterated no land for Russia. And now Trump is downplaying how this negotiation is going to go.
I think a lot of people think this is going to be like a huge catalyst on Friday that oh, so much good news is going to come out of this negotiation on Trump meeting Putin. Putin literally or Trump is literally now saying, you know, I'm gonna go I'm gonna go and find out where we are and what we're doing.
That's what he says we're going to do on Friday. So much for I will end the war within 24 hours. Obviously, that was, you know, now Trump says sarcastic, but everybody knew it was going to be BS, but you know, Trump certainly made it seem like it was going to happen. Uh and and now we've gone from I will end the war in 24 hours to nearly well basically a year later from that commitment to well I'm going to go and I'm going to figure out where we're at.
Uh you know so we're not really getting anywhere with the Russia Ukraine situation. Uh Trump suing Powell is just a way of again Trump trying to gut the Federal Reserve to force more rate cuts which is leading to more euphoria. broadly in certain sectors of the market, but it's also dangerous because if we hurt the credibility of the Federal Reserve more so than it's already been hurt by themselves, uh then our bond market could really set us up for a steepening yield curve, that could just be the nail in the coffin to small business hiring and frankly small business viability at all, which could crush our economy.
I think people forget that half of our economy is made up well half of our jobs are made up it's like 48% so half of our jobs are made up by small businesses. So if you crush small businesses even more than you've already crushed small businesses in this environment and then we get the layoff cycle that's how we really start the recession.
Then you'll get the rate cuts you want. Uh so and how can Trump do this? Well, he's got to pierce the sovereign immunity veil. And I think he's going to make the argument that JPAW is going way out of his legal authority with this basement renovation uh to house more economists when you don't need those economists because their data sucks anyway.
That's what Donald Trump is going to argue. I expect he'll probably make that argument within the next two weeks, possibly around Jackson Hold. It could also be that Jerome Powell is doing this or Donald Trump is doing this as a threat to make sure that Jerome Powell says nice things at Jackson Hole and talks about rate cuts coming which technically based on market expectations Jerome Powell should be setting up a rate cut for September.
So Jackson Hole should be bullish and maybe he won't get sued if he's bullish and I think Trump's trying to play that 4D chess. So I don't think we'll see a lawsuit until after Jackson Hole. If we do see a lawsuit, it will certainly come with a hey, we'll end this if you just step down. Kind of crazy.
Kind of crazy. So, uh, anyway, remember, use coupon code J-Hole. It's a very big deal. Uh, also some other affiliates to mention. A lot of you have been asking about my 360 camera that I used when I was at Disney on my trip. I'll show you a clip of this. This uh this was I have to say just a phenomenal tool to have uh when I was on my trip to Japan.
Uh you know I think it's just it's really cool. This camera by the way was all AI. So this is a 360 camera. Mind you was hot as hell in Japan. So I apologize for wearing skimpy clothing here but it's very hot. You can see Jack. Look how red his face is. uh because he's sweating like a lot. But anyway, this entire clip, which makes me bullish on AI, mind you, this entire clip was edited by AI.
So, think about this. A 360 camera filmed for about 4 minutes. Okay? So, 4 minutes of 360° where you have to like change the angle and pick which angle you want and clip the 30 seconds you want. I want you to see what uh four minutes turned into with AI. Take a look at this. Look, it's cool. It's almost like it knows that Max is looking and I'm looking up at that tower and it's like, "Oh, I should play that tower." Right?
Look at this. This is all AI. the transitions, the rotation showing this all AI. All I did was hold a stick with a 360 camera on it. That zoom into the tower with the sun going behind it. Dude, that was sick. That's all AI AI. AI. AI. Now, this is real life, right? This is the Disney, you know, Frozen area or whatever.
But that entire 32 second edit was all done by the push of a button. I opened up the app and you could get this if you want. It's a sponsor of the channel. Uh so just type in metaven.com/me. Okay. Yes. Because you've met me now, not me Kevin. So met Kevin.com uh 360x. Put an X after it. So met Kevin.com 360X.
And uh I filmed it with that camera. And then in the app that Bluetooth connects to my phone, I just go AI. And like 30 seconds later, I look at it, I go, "Oh my gosh, that was insane." Now, it's not always that good. But the qual I mean, this it was really impressive. I have to say really, really impressive.
So, uh, you know, really real shout out there. uh you know they I I have an affiliate relationship with them, but I look at it and I'm like, "Dude, this is literally amazing." So, um anyway, I thought I'd mention it. Uh okay, good. So, what else? Uh somewhere the software is the camera software that I use.
So, it's the app that comes with the product. So, somebody here says, "Chandler says you're cherry-picking showing goods inflation without their actual weight on CPI." I don't know where you posted. I don't know what community what, but um nobody's showing goods infl I'm not showing individual categories.
That's not what I showed in this video. I what I showed is the entire the entirety of core goods and services which weighs all of them right all of this that's all goods now uh you know if you're saying like oh well you know we have to figure out what the weight of core goods are fine but the point is this trajectory is just beginning this is not cherrypicking this is a crit critical change in the trajectory of goods inflation, which without tariffs is right here.
And oh wow, what a surprise. In 2019, we had positive goods inflation because of tariffs. Now you have even more extreme tariffs. And so this trajectory is very bad. That's what we're looking at. So, uh, you know, incredible. Here, somebody says, "Dang, I didn't know about the AI editing. been sitting on a few 360 videos because editing is such a learning curve, right?
So, here's the thing that you have to know with these 360 cameras. You have to know that the the way you want to edit with them is as soon as you film a clip, you manually edit it and forget about the rest. That's the way you have to do it. So, I'm going to give you an example. Okay, so this was the uh this was Splash Mountain.
So, what I did is I filmed this. I had maybe eight or nine minutes of footage and as soon as I got off the ride, I edited the video. I took about 4 minutes or whatever cuz I just went on the ride. I clip the part that I wanted. 21 seconds and uh I export it and I manually clip it together in the app on my iPhone right there while I'm at the park walking to the next ride.
I export it and I'm done. I don't want the other 8 minutes of footage. I'm never going to go look at the other 8 minutes of footage again. So now I got the 21 seconds that I want. And here it is. And you can see it. It's actually us going down Splash Mountain. There's Max. Uh, and he's like, "Is is this clickbait?" Because we kept joking that some of the drops that they have in front are clickbait.
Really? It's kind of good footage. You see, my meta glasses are soaked. How was it, Max? Your glasses. My glasses are soaked. Uh but anyway, you know, like that's cool. That that's the way you've got to work these 360s is is you've got to export it right away. Uh and uh and and uh you know, then then you're then you're done.
You don't want to store all like years of this this footage, you know, uh like you're going to go crazy. So because you'll you'll never go back and look at it. And and I think that's the worst part uh about digital cameras is we film all this stuff but then we never go back and actually look at it, right?
Uh so that that's the part that I find unfortunate, I should say. I'll put it that way. Uh but anyway, so uh okay, good. So what else do we have here? Then we have uh can I don't know how to get to this community thing that somebody's talking about in the chat. Let me see. Can I do it? Yeah. No. I I don't know how to do that.
But what you're saying, yeah, but they are weighted and account for less than 1% of the CPI. Look. Well, let's just go to the BLS. Okay. So, B like why don't you send it to somewhere I can actually find it. Like link it right here. You're in the chat. BLS CPI report. Doesn't make it so complicated to find what you're talking about.
Uh, so, uh, okay. So, let's go look at the CPI because, you know, somebody's bitching in the chat and so I always like it when somebody's bitching to go look at what the underlying crap is that they're complaining about. So basically uh CPI is weighted 13% on food and once we get past food we have energy is about 6%.
All items less food and energy right this is core. So look at this. You know somebody's like oh well the waitings for the items don't really matter. What are you smoking dude? Core CPI. core CPI represents 79.9% of the inflation waiting. Okay? Like we're not trying to go into like these like oh how much is one thing or the other that one of the reasons why we've seen such a decline uh in in inflation is because of shelter.
you know, shelter less inflation is a 60% weight, which is huge because on a monthly basis, you know, people's mortgage or their rent is is a huge component. But what we're concerned about is what's happening in the underlying, you know, the 6.7% in medical care services. Why is why are airfares up as much as they are?
Why for, you know, the that's that's like 10% right there. Uh and then when we look at goods, uh you know, so for example, let's go to broader goods here. Broader goods. Broader goods. So all items less food. Let's see. Commodities less food and energy. Household furnishings. So household stuff only sits about three.
Commodities less food and energy. So this is outside of housing. 19%. Uh you know these these are big items. So of course housing makes up a big portion of this. But uh when you add it all together, these are big parts of CPI. And as they accelerate, they bring the entire index up with them. uh and that's where we're seeing problems.
Now, of course, housing inflation could continue to bring us disinflation. But we would be negative right now, just like we were in March, if it weren't for these tariffs. Uh and that's the problem. You know, if we go back to where we were in March, where inflation was heading, we were negative and we would probably continue to be negative had it not been for tariffs.
And and so tariffs are very very clearly showing up. And unfortunately, they're what what are making Powell too late, which is the great iron.
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