저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
연준 파월이 내일 발언에서 인플레이션을 여전히 일시적이라 보며 테이퍼링을 60억→? 식으로 가속, 금리인상은 3~4개월 후로 늦출 것으로 전망. 2022년 중 인플레이션 정점 통과를 95% 확신. 소프트웨어·적자 고평가 기업은 압박받으나 고마진·고성장 기업(어도비, 세일즈포스, 광고주 관련주)은 기회. 공포 구간에서 분할 매수 고려, 마진 투자도 검토 중.
다듬은 글
well folks it's no surprise about three weeks ago I reported on this channel that we were expecting massive compression in software evaluations now take a look at this I'm popping to live CNBC downgrading software stocks JPMorgan Cuts 13 names this is also following the drama that we've seen unfold with DocuSign there is a lot of pain in the markets right now and we are seeing substantial compression especially in higher valuation companies and a lot of this is coming because of the pain we expect coming out of Jerome Powell's mouth tomorrow in this video I want to talk about my strategy in this market my expectations for tomorrow which I'm actually going to start with my expectations for tomorrow what Jerome Powell is going to do then we're going to talk about my strategy for this market and we'll talk about my thoughts in terms of specifically what kind of companies you should be paying attention to going forward in 2022 I've already given a lot of course members a preview of a lot of these thoughts and so if you ever want to get my thoughts at first check out those beautiful programs listed Down Below on building your wealth you're going to make money or I expect you to make money I guess I can't guarantee it but I expect you to make money either in saving money through the Partnerships that we've got in the program The Amazing live streams the lectures on building your wealth whether it's the real estate youtubing agent stocks crypto you name it take a look at that I'll link down below I think you'll find something excellent for you all right folks let's get started first drum pal okay here's the thing Jerome Powell I believe strongly expects that inflation is still transitory now hold the phone I know that's going to piss off probably about 60 of people watching this video he said he's dropping the word transitory yes he said he's dropping the word transitory but he only did so after he was threatened to lose his job and after he met with Joe Biden multiple times somehow right after he met with Joe Biden multiple times and then he got reappointed to the job of Fed chair and then suggested he was going to basically share some of the power with lail Brainard and that he stood up on a Podium with Biden Brainard and him it's almost like there were three buddies all of a sudden after that you know we've got to accelerate the pace of the taper you know we're gonna retire the word transitory this comes after more than a year of Jerome Powell being Crystal freaking clear with his attention his intentions his Crystal Clarity has been such that a we would see inflation Peak uh first a two points he's mentioned two points we would see inflation Peak and this is very very important because it kind of happened the way he said I know that sounds crazy but it's true he said number one we would see inflation rise and potentially pee when we compare to the base of effects of the pandemic now we need to understand that because that's very very important the base effects of the pandemic are right here this is the chart of CPI inflation when we had the pandemic we actually had a brief period of deflation prices falling when prices fell to this level over here of about 255 as a measure of CPI it goes up from 100 over time it's just a charting measure don't worry so much about the number then when we compared to May the next year it felt like we were comparing back into a hole we had substantially higher inflation watch how this works right before the pandemic we had the CPI read at 2 58 right if we measured from 258 to that next February of 263 263 divided by 258 we have about 1.9 percent inflation okay but what we actually had to do was measure from a low of about 255 256 will round call 256 to May to May 250 a or 268 so 268 divided by that's the new number divided by the old number of 256 there's that 4.68 percent see that's measuring into the whole measuring into the hole this is the first form of inflation that we expected Jerome Powell told us it was going to come he told us there was going to be inflationary fear between March and April of 2021 that fear started in February of 2020 when Markets started panicking tech stocks started selling off remember this folks it's important to in in my opinion highly worthwhile looking back at tech stocks in February of 2021 because it's going to show you the relative drama okay so here's February we hit highs boom Apple Falls but look at where we are now on companies like apple look at where we are now on companies like Microsoft look at where we stand now on companies like Google we're higher than we were in February now that's not to say that all stocks are higher don't get me wrong a lot of stocks especially certain category stocks which we're going to talk about in this video are a lot lower than where we were in February but the point was the first Catalyst for people selling off stocks and again we're going to get into the specifics in a moment was the base effect uh comparison okay we expected that to happen then inflation we had the higher inflation rates inflation rotated up we had higher year-over-year projections in the summer inflation slowed down you see this right here the slope of the line has decelerated that's an inflection point right here when inflation slowed down in the summer we expected inflation to no longer become an issue bond yields fell surprisingly crypto hit lows maybe potentially even unsurprisingly in the summer as inflation fears subsided nobody was talking about inflation in June July wasn't that big of a deal I would do CPI report videos and nobody cared about them in the summer and then what happened folks well two things number one Jerome Powell told us the second place that we're going to see inflation is from when people go out and they start spending money again like crazy but coupled with people going out and spending money again like crazy and people not staying at home in quarantine we got another punch in the face and that was called Delta the Delta variant shut down many factories in Asia and substantially backed up our ports as ports got shut down a lot of that is not being caused by Omicron you've got southeast Asia uh Asian countries and companies and ports they're all like hey bring it on we're ready for the next wave of covid we ain't shutting down again because what happened in the last shutdowns was a complete and utter disaster okay so we don't expect to see the same sorts of shutdowns but we got slapped with Delta Delta created more inflation thanks to our supply chain issues combining with people getting out there and spending money like people are way less worried about covid this winter than they were last winter coveted winter last year people were staying at home covered winter this year people like omicron's mild get out there and spend your money which people still have more money even though unemployment benefits ran out in September we got the child tax credit that basically started around the same time to offset a lot of what people missed out on those unemployment benefits so stimulus money is still flowing Federal Reserve is still printing money it's kind of insane that we're still doing that but put these things together you've still got stimulus money flowing the Federal Reserve still printing money which is just utterly insane at the same time as Jerome Powell was right about inflation being bad a during the base effects B during the reopening but then everything stayed more persistent that is inflation lasted longer why because of those darn Delta supply chain aspects that really we couldn't have predicted a Delta variant right who knows we could have had the Alma Burger I mean the Omicron uh before the Delta variant and then hopefully covid would have just disappeared by now right which is what we're hoping with Omicron anyway is that this more mild cold-like uh version of covid is ultimately the predominant uh variant and and then that this this is the beginning of the enter coven uh that's at least what professionals are are talking about and you can see my statistics and research in my coveted videos but this is an inflation video so we're going to stick to the topic now right now we are dealing with the result of extremely high producer price inflation and high uh of the pain that is coming out of all of the issues that I've just listed and when you look year over year you're going to see something very interesting on the inflation chart so I printed the CPI report sorted all of the year-over-year increases from ascending to declining and what's incredible is you'll really notice a lot of these are either Commodities or energy related or meat yeah meat I did a whole video of meat yesterday you can watch that one but look at this up here you got gasoline motor oil uh cars and truck rentals energy uh beef beef beef veal whatever blah blah blah blah these are all your big inflation numbers right here right anywhere between 14 year over year and 60 year over year problem is commodity prices it's worth knowing this commodity prices do not tend to remain high we've had a unique move in Lumber where we had this insane surge in Lumber than it fell now it's kind of coming back but a lot of our Commodities uh like wheat or aluminum or iron uh rebar a lot of these are off their highs or starting to potentially turn negative more in the case of Iron and Steel we're expecting that to turn negative next year but in the case of aluminum we're still at elevated prices don't get me wrong still at elevated prices but we're seeing the inflection point down we're still not seeing the inflection point down though in things like used cars but somebody's not buying a used car or new car every month so it's not like you're in affected necessarily by that form of inflation regularly energy costs it's a problem meat costs it's a problem but interestingly we're also seeing a lot of the meat manufacturers and companies raising prices because headline inflation is high and it's almost like they're molding into oh well inflation's High let's raise prices Chipotle is a perfect example of that Tyson meets a perfect example about that but again we talked about some of this yesterday so we're not going to relitigate this whole thing when we actually scroll down the list of inflation we still have higher levels of inflation don't get me wrong seeing eight percent increases in things like uh coffee or salads or apples carbonated drinks instant coffee peanut butter uh you know six percent increases in fresh fruits uh women's outerwear 5.4 these are still elevated levels of inflation don't get me wrong like the amount of money printing that has happened is substantial and we're just getting started on seeing rent-based inflation this is going to be a headliner but what is Bloomberg actually expect going forward Bloomberg expects that by 2022 in uh in December November and December we're going to be at a CPI read of 2.8 percent that implies that we are ready to hit an inflection point either in January February March and don't get me wrong I've been I thought we were going to hit the inflection point in September and October because I was not expecting the Delta disaster I was wrong that I never said that inflation would go away at the end of the year but I did expect that inflation would start ticking down now that has been delayed because of Delta but it's reiterated by the fact that we're not seeing that kind of pain again coming from ports uh to suggest that supply chain issues will get worse rather we're seeing them slowly get better they're taking a while to get better don't get me wrong solar industry just cut its forecast for 2022 because the supply chain issues are still an issue they're going to be a lingering issue probably honestly for years but what do we do expect in terms of inflation well again we saw this run we saw the flattening in the summer we see a crazy run right now and what are we expecting well at some point and we don't know exactly when this point is right here but at some point we expect to see that inflation start ticking down again and trending down now you're going to have winds that push this inflation up things that are going to push this inflation up are specifically I should say going to be rent-based inflation and that's because rent-based inflation substantially lags but the point of everything that I've just outlined is to try to preface what I believe Jerome Powell is going to do tomorrow and that's very very important because I believe that Jerome Powell would listen to this explanation here and agree with what I've said I believe that because I've studied Jerome Powell a lot I studied the Federal Reserve a lot I studied economics a lot of studied inflation a lot I believe that inflation will Trend down in 2022.
again supply chain issue is still going to be an issue rent still going to be an issue don't get me wrong but some of these insane prices are going to start coming down because what's going to happen is we're going to compare the insane prices of 2021 to 2022 and even if they stay flat guess what your inflation reading is folks zero so we would literally have to have an insane growth of prices in 2021 and that same growth of inflation again in 2022 to see these same ridiculous numbers again in 2022.
I think it's unlikely highly unlikely so I'm going to say I'm 95 certain we're going to see an inflection point in inflation at some point in 2022. hopefully that's early Jan Fab March something like that I believe that Jerome Powell is going to believe the same thing and here's what I believe that drum Powell is going to say tomorrow at his Federal Reserve meeting keeping in mind everything that I just explained about inflation I believe he is going to agree with and before I tell you why or what I believe that drone Powell is going to say I want to make sure that you understand the bond market is literally reiterating exactly what I'm saying so if if you thought Kevin you're smoking crack thinking you can predict the future you can fact check me solely by looking at the bond market look at 10-year treasure yields if why is it that we have the highest inflation CPI and PPI reports ever that we have seen in the last like 40 years basically ever certainly at least for me I'm not even 30 right I'm 29 So In fairness I get it uh why is it that we've had the highest reports ever since again 40 years or so and we have 10-year bond yields not anywhere near the highs where we were around 1.6 1.7 if we're heading towards this 1970s great hyperinflation shouldn't bond yields be freaking out right now wouldn't it make sense that people would say why the hell would I take 1.4 on my money I'm gonna sell those bonds because I'm gonna lose money to hyperinflation I'm gonna sell those bonds when you sell bonds the price goes down when price goes down yield goes up but folks yield's not going up yields going down that means people are still buying the bonds and it's not just the FED it's institutions as well this is why we're seeing yields Trend down remember the Fed was buying more bonds when we were actually on higher yields than they're buying now and we're getting into the taper phase so we're gonna be buying even less and less and less hit the market is still continuing to buy bonds keeping yields low why because they don't actually believe that inflation is going to remain persistent it's a Hot Topic it's wonderful for the Ben shapiros of the world and this is not an insult and Ben Shapiro I would expect nothing less from him okay it makes entire sense for right uh individuals as people on the right Republicans uh politicians to and complain about Joe Biden and how bad all of his policies have ruined inflation this is not a political video okay I'm just saying that amplification of all of this uh this this uh inflation drama I think is overdone and what it's doing is it's taking the flavor of the day and it's applying it to the flavor of the year now I understand we've seen increasing inflation for quite a while I get it but at some point we will logically see an inflection down not just because of why I said but also the bond market is pricing in exactly that we do expect rates to go up in the short term don't kid yourself in fact that is where you're going to see yields going up in the short term this is what we call the flattening of the yield curve short-term rates are going up that's because we do expect I think Jerome Paul is going to say and that's why you're seeing a little bit of this movement up here in the two-year actually quite a bit of a movement up here in the two here but not on the 10.
because we expect rates to go up in the short term but not in the longer term we don't actually expect inflation to last okay so what do we think Jerome Powell is going to say so here's what I believe dronepal is going to say and do number one as of two months ago we were printing 120 billion dollars per month we tapered by a pace of 15 billion dollars we expect that pace to double to 30 billion dollars which means we are going to go from instead of printing 120 to printing 105 down to printing 75.
so we're still going to be printing 75 billion dollars which is kind of insane there is a possibility that drum Powell is going to accelerate that even more than expected would not be so ideal for markets if he accelerates more than that double the double is priced in but the taper is not so important the taper is more of a signal of potentially what's to come what's to come is a liftoff when interest rates go up folks let's understand this if we taper by okay that is a weird little Crown thing if we taper by a pace of 15 billion dollars the taper ends in about June which means the earliest time that we're likely to actually raise interest rates is probably June or July if we taper by a pace of 30 billion we'll probably end the taper somewhere in March which means we could see rates go up somewhere between month three and four so March and April if we taper any faster then that is going to move up rate expectations and we would expect the market to react very negatively however Jerome Powell is a man of trying to be as transparent as possible with his beliefs and so my expectation is he is going to meet the 30 billion expectation for taper okay good but what's more important is what dronepal is going to say what I believe and this is his first big speech after getting reappointed chair I believe Jerome Powell was going to say the following he is going to bag on inflation he is going to say that price stability is worrisome that it's something they're strongly paying attention to that as a result of price instability they are going to taper sooner and because inflation is so high we must react and we're going to react by tapering sooner as for rates though we are going to complete the taper first and we're going to watch for the incoming Data before we make a decision on rates look at what Jerome Powell accomplishes by doing this he appeases Biden by coming across as a hawk by coming across sir we are fighting inflation but at the same time he can actually maintain his belief that inflation is not necessarily going to last he buys himself time he buys himself three to four months over three to four months folks we better better better better better better see this the inflection point because if we do not see the inflection point you better believe rates are going up if John Powell buys himself three to four months which I expect he will in ex and he's going to allude to buying himself time but he's still going to talk tough on inflation as long as he alludes to buying himself time and watching the data before committing to raising rates and waiting for hopefully inflation to fall which is a very real possibility that in Jan Feb or March inflation starts ticking down and then hopefully we see an inflection point in actual inflation readings which if we don't it's going to be really bad news but if that's the case and if that is the chart that Jerome Powell sort of lays out ahead of us then I am hopeful that the stock market will see that as an opportunity as an opportunity that uncertainty Over The Madness of what Jerome Powell is going to do tomorrow is going to be gone he's not going to raise rates he's not going to taper to zero right away we don't expect that if we got like a rate increase tomorrow or a full taper tomorrow I think the stock market would probably crash so I wouldn't want to blow everything that I have right now but I do think there's an opportunity to do some dip buying because I do believe a lot of uncertainty is going to go away after Jerome Powell speaks and that's because I expect him to lay something out like this and maybe he's just gonna soothe the market maybe it's just gonna be kind of like aloe vera on a third degree burn yank gonna heal a third degree burn with aloe vera but it makes it feel a little bit better in the short term maybe maybe he'll just end up pandering to the idea that oh don't worry there's still a chance that inflation will go down and maybe if markets react that way we continue to get a sell-off and we see something like what we saw at the end of 2018 where the S P 500 sold off 20 percent within three months only to take three months to recover created a very nice by the dip opportunity it didn't last because Jerome Powell ended up u-turning on too quick of a an interest rate uh sort of uh increase which is exactly what the bond market is predicting as well the bond market is predicting there's a limit to how much you can raise rates it's exactly what the European Central Bank says when Christine Lagarde says wait a minute we're not ready to tie it tighten because the effects of our monetary policy are going to take effect on our markets 18 months late so we taper now we're going to see the lack of that sort of monetary stimulus in 18 months it takes time when we raise rates now it takes 18 months and is it and if any 18 months down the road our economy is slowing down well now all of a sudden we're in a place where we're tightening at the same time as the economy slowing down that's bad this is why the European Central Bank is actually more cautious on tightening as rapidly as Jerome Powell maybe will sound like he's interested in tightening but again I feel like he's doing so for political reasons to justify why why Joe Biden kept him in the seat just my thought it was the perfect case scenario for for Joe Biden because if Joe Biden picked somebody else then Joe Biden would be married to whatever the inflation outcome is but if he threatens Jerome pile and says you got to be a little bit more hawkish and I'll give you your job back it's still Jay Powell Who was appointed by Donald Trump so you can still point the finger politically right it's all a political game it's ridiculous so how do we react in this market okay now let's get to that so first massive fear right now right lots of fear right now volatility index is high it's not as high as it was last week but it's it's high and a lot of the the prices that we've seen are actually kind of similar because we've been slow bleeding on a lot of smaller stocks not necessarily all stocks like apple Apple's obviously been doing phenomenally but a lot of specifically software stocks fintech stocks technology stocks anything with anything that's losing money has substantially been getting burned uh so or anything with a higher valuation Cloud flare great company higher valuation really glad you two you turned right back to trendline in my opinion long term this is a buying opportunity for cloudflare uh Adobe not much of a U-turn here because it's a profitable company notice that when you're looking in the stock market the very profitable high margin companies are the ones that are not u-turning as much why why did DocuSign U-turn as much because it's not profitable it's got a substantially higher valuation look at that plummet you've got here the money losing companies are getting reamed look at lemonade money losing company getting reamed look at Robinhood money losing fintech getting reamed the money losing companies are the ones getting reamed the ones that have high growth and high margins are doing better look at trade desk it's come down from its Highs but it's still way up the money making companies with high margins like end face down from its highs which is great but still up look at Etsy high margin money-making company down from its Highs but still up relative to when I say still up relative to like six weeks ago okay like the price where we are now on Etsy is still incredible relative to six weeks ago right so uh in my opinion there are opportunities to increase your portfolio allocation to companies that have and I've mentioned this before but I literally have to reiterate it high margin high growth but also folks and this is my big secret that I've been working on Advertising companies the advertisers I think are going to be huge in 2022 because consumers are going to probably be spending less money companies are going to have much more inventory their supply issues are going to slow down they're going to want to advertise more they're going to want to advertise even more to try to compare to the 2021 figures they had and we're going to see an advertising freaking Bonanza Google trade desk Snapchat Facebook Twitter Pinterest uh I'm not investing in all these companies but these are that's just to name a few servicenow is another one I mean I mean there are plenty of different advertising companies some some of these I'm not interested in investing in uh but the point is there are some very real opportunities Adobe Salesforce uh some phenomenal companies that you can invest in and in my opinion we are at a point of substantial fear where the market thinks that this inflation is going to last forever I don't believe that this inflation is going to last forever uh I am investing as such that I do not believe that this inflation is lasting forever I've almost spent all of my cash I've got a little bit more cash to go I send every single buy and sell alert when I buy or sell not because you should copy that trade but just to give you an idea of where my head is every single Alerhich you can get using the Xmas coupon code merry Christmas and happy holidays uh and uh I'm I'm considering especially depending on how Hawkeyes strong Powell sounds tomorrow because I think he's going to be putting on a facade I'm considering dipping my toes a little bit into margin on some of my favorite companies that have sold down more or have come to what I deem to be very juicy levels I have not done so yet but I am considering and preparing for that eventuality we'll see uh I do expect Jerome Powell to be hawkish tomorrow I don't think he's going to be nice to the market tomorrow however I think if you if you look for the Silver Lining he's going to make it crystal clear that he's going to wait to see what the signs of inflation readings are over the next three to four months if we continue to get high readings gonna be a problem rates are going to go up bond yields are going to go up and you'll see that reaction in the bond market very quickly and and then you know okay now it's now it's really time to start getting worried I don't think we're at that time yet I think the time to worry was actually like four weeks ago when prices were at all-time highs and if you watch this channel you saw me post videos about I think the Market's gonna turn I'm selling I'm shorting I'm taking profits I'm closing options uh I'm I'm prepping cash people were calling me insane for shorting Arc and prepping cash but I knew this fear was coming I didn't know exactly what the fear was going to be but I knew a level of fear was going to be coming in December because there were so many opportunities uh for small things to blow up into larger things and that's exactly what happened again I didn't know what it would be but we did expect that something would happen uh so anyway these are my thoughts on the market these are my thoughts on jpow tomorrow and folks I'm a loyal by the Dipper I'm sorry I like catching falling knives because that's how I grabbed the knives and I turn around and stop people make lots of tendys in the market maybe not stab people slice up my attendees there we go that's a nicer way to put it with them knives you know people tried to perfectly oh I'll wait for the very bottom those are always the people who are like oh the Market's gone up 10 oh it's a dead cat bounce oh no the Market's gone up 30 oh it'll come down again and it never comes back down the time to buy is when there's blood on the streets people are finally more fearful I love it and I'm dying is there more potential for more fear and fall absolutely do I think we're gonna follow that full 20 that we saw at the end of 2018 probably not because there's way too much money sloshing around my thoughts thanks for watching goodbye
Comments 0