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Economist nuriel rubini who correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis sees a long and ugly recession in the U.S and globally occurring at the end of 2022 that could last all of 2023 and a sharp correction in the s p 500. even in a plain vanilla recession the S P 500 can fall by 30 said rubini chairman and chief executive officer of rubini macro Associates in an interview Monday in a real hard Landing which he expects it could fall 40 percent rubini whose presence on the housing bubble crash of 2007 to 2008 earned him the nickname Dr Doom said that those expecting a shallow U.S recession should be looking at the large debt ratios of Corporations and governments as rates rise and Debt Service in costs increase many zombie institutions zombie households corporates Banks Shadow Banks and zombie countries are going to die he said so we'll see who's swimming naked rubini who has warned that Global debt levels will drag down markets said that achieving a two percent inflation rate without a heart Landing is going to be mission impossible for the Federal Reserve he expects a 75 basis points rate hike at the current meeting and 50 basis points in both November and December that would lead the FED funds rate by Year's entity between 4 and 4.25 however persistent inflation especially in wages and the service sector will mean the FED will probably have no choice but to hike more he said with funds rates going toward 5 on top of that negative Supply shocks coming from the pandemic Russia Ukraine conflict and China's zero covert tolerance policy will bring higher costs and lower economic growth this will make the fed's current growth recession goal a protracted period of meager growth and rise using unemployment to stem inflation difficult once the world is in recession rubini doesn't expect fiscal stimulus remedies as governments with too much debt are running out of fiscal bullets High inflation would also mean that if you do fiscal stimulus you're overheating the aggregate demand as a result rubini sees a stagflation like in the 1970s and massive debt distress as in the global financial crisis it's not going to be a short and shallow recession it's going to be severe long and ugly he said rubini expects the U.S and Global recession to last all of 2023 depending on how severe the supply shocks and financial distress will be during the 2008 crisis households and Banks took the hardest hits this time around he said corporations and Shadow Banks such as hedge funds private equity and credit funds are going to implode in rabini's new book Mega threats he identifies 11 medium-term negative Supply shocks that reduce potential growth by increasing the cost of production those include deglobalization and protectionism real locating of manufacturing from China and Asia to Europe and the U.S aging of population in advanced economies and Emerging Markets migration restrictions decoupling between the U.S and China global climate change and recurring pandemics it's only a matter of time until we're going to get the next nasty pandemic he said his advice for investors you have to be light on equities and have more cash though cash is eroded by inflation its nominal value stays at zero while equities and other assets can fall by 10 20 30 in fixed income he recommends staying away from long duration bonds and adding inflation protection from short-term treasuries or inflation index bonds like tips here is orange
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