저자: 뿌들트레이딩방법 · 한국인
요약 보기
나스닥 10%대 조정 국면에서 레버리지 ETF(QLD, TQQQ 등) 장기 보유자가 손실 중임을 밝히고, 분할매수를 권장. 실업률 상승으로 샴의 법칙 발동, 버크셔의 애플 매도, 엔캐리 트레이드 청산, 중동 전쟁 우려를 부정적 요인으로 언급하나 장기적으로 미국지수 상승을 믿으며 현금 비중 10~30% 유지 후 저점 매수 전략을 강조.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Dé. Amidst this painful correction, I am starting today by revealing my account details to you. You can see that my direct investment account in the US has plummeted with a 59% return and a profit of 104 million won. QLD N, which was at a 100% return, has dropped to 52%, and USD, which was at a 500% return, has fallen by 200%.
My domestic account here has also dropped to an 86% return, and you can see that my profit has fallen significantly to just 5.1 million won. Fortunately, it is somewhat protecting against exchange rate fluctuations, but the profit in my second account has also dropped significantly. In particular, as Bitcoin has entered negative territory again, it has entered a -10% return and I am currently at a loss of 9 million won.
Due to this fairly large puddle correction, my profit has evaporated by a whopping 170 million won, dropping from 300 million won to 130 million won. So, does that mean I am scared to sell and run, or just trembling without consolidating my position? Absolutely not. At this level, the actual decline...
No, it needs to be at least as big as the 2020 crash or the 2022 bear market. Right now, while my account is getting smashed like this, I am buying in installments of Ungju. If you look at this correction, blood is flowing in the market. Our accounts are showing a sea of blood, and this connects directly to John Templeton's famous quote: "The best time to buy is when the market is bleeding, even if it is your own blood." Of course, I do n't care if it drops further, but I am sticking to my principle of buying in installments of Ungju right now.
Now, those of you who have held out with me for a long time—surviving COVID-19 in 2020 and the 2022 bear market— believe that the opportunity has finally arrived. These are the optimists who are not currently feeling fear, dread, or stress; instead, they are actually happy, or they look at the fearful or mocking comments and see them as buying opportunities, saying that the "human indicator" has finally appeared.
However, in this tiny puddle correction where the Nasdaq has dropped by just over 10%, those armchair Warren Buffetts who were already trembling or couldn't leave comments because they were envious of the profits are starting to show up again. Puddle, ah, you're [ __ ] blood right now. Mocking comments started appearing, such as "Is there a puddle big enough to bury a coffin in?", "It wasn't a puddle, it was a cliff.", "Let's see.", "Are you holding onto Woongju?", and "Is Bellop scared and going offline?".
In fact, I have been waiting for indicators like these. I have been advising you to always keep a separate cash reserve, warning that a correction, downturn, or crash could happen at any time. This is because I view this as an opportunity for dollar-cost averaging, indicating that it is finally time to start using that cash.
Why do I think this? Because comments like these were posted during the 2022 bear market and during the correction in August 2023. In other words, the stock market always repeats pattern cycles, and the patterns of individual investors repeat as well. Of course, the reasons for the decline, the magnitude of the drop, and the duration may all differ, but the patterns and cycles continue to repeat.
And the fact is, the timing of these comments indicates that the opportunity for dollar-cost averaging—the chance to scoop up Woongju in the puddle—is somewhere within this market. Now, everyone, do you understand why people say you can't sell at the peak now that it is dropping so suddenly? The Nasdaq has already entered a correction phase, having fallen more than 10%, yet news and YouTube are telling us to secure cash even now.
Honestly, I don't understand. It has already fallen significantly, so why are you telling us to sell now that it has dropped so much, when you were constantly telling us to buy before? We should just steadfastly endure the correction and the sharp decline, and instead proceed with staggered buying of stocks at the same time.
If you were going to tell us to sell, you should have said so as early as mid-July. I don't understand why you are making us even more scared by talking about a Great Depression, a recession, and a US default only after everything has already fallen. Therefore, let us calmly examine the negative factors affecting US stocks and I will explain how we should act right now.
First, the first negative factor is the sudden emergence of concerns about a rapid economic recession, and the first of these is that the Law of the Year has been triggered. So, what is this Law of the Year? It is a rule that states if the average unemployment rate over the past three months is more than 0.5 percentage points higher than the lowest rate in the past year, it is considered a recession.
This is exactly what appeared in the recent unemployment figures. The forecast was 4.1%, but the announcement was a much higher 4.3%. Because this Law of the Year has correctly predicted recessions 10 times out of 11, it is a rule that many investors on Wall Street trust quite a bit. This Law of the Year is It is an indicator used to judge economic recessions and is quite reliable; however, it is not an indicator for judging market timing.
While the activation of Charles's Law is highly likely to lead to a recession, there have been times when the downturn had already ended. This is because the stock market reflects this in advance. Therefore, looking at the blue SMP 500 and the upward-sloping graph on the right, you must focus on the fact that it eventually overcomes all negative factors and continues to trend upward in the long term.
Furthermore, aside from Charles's Law, if you examine the graph of the long-term/short-term interest rate spread—another indicator with high reliability for current recession predictions—you can see that the inversion is resolving and the market is nearing normalization. We can confirm that when the long-term/short-term interest rate spread normalizes after inversion, it means that a recession had already occurred.
Like Charles's Law, this is one of the highly reliable data points. In fact, when viewed through the lens of the economic cycle, a recession is a pattern that always occurs. Do you remember that I have consistently emphasized that investors must be prepared for recessions and approach investing with the determination to weather them?
And Peter Lynch said this about recession patterns... Whenever an economic downturn occurs, there has always been a group claiming that "this time, it will soar," and such groups will continue to exist in the future. In other words, whenever a recession strikes, people always appear saying, "The U.S.
is finished," "U.S. stocks are finished," and insisting, " This time it's different, for real." Just like the comments on my previous video. However, the core point Peter Lynch makes is that the very few people who succeed in the stock market accept unpredictable events or crashes. They are prepared for the possibility of a crash at any time; instead of being surprised, they endure and view it as a buying opportunity.
In fact, if we look at the long-term Nasdaq chart, it shows an upward trend, but you can see that dips are continuously being dug during that process. Here, we must not panic; we must be prepared and ready in advance, and be able to view these dips as opportunities rather than crises. And right now, another dip is being dug.
Just as I did in 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, I am consistently viewing this as an opportunity and consolidating my position this year. And as I utilize this dip as an opportunity as well, my assets... I will show you how to make it jump again, so let's seize this opportunity together. Now, the second piece of bad news—which truly surprised me as well—is the report that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway sold half of its holdings in Apple.
Consequently, concerns about an economic recession and a market crash are escalating. The fact that Warren Buffett, a long-term investor, sold not just a small amount but a whopping half of his largest holding in Apple carries significant meaning for us. It is a factor that can instill fear, making people wonder, "Is the US stock market finished now?
Is an economic recession coming and a massive crash imminent?" Honestly, I also feel very uneasy about Warren Buffett's sell-off. However, Warren Buffett's sell-off does not necessarily mean a crash or a decline. Given that there are many stocks that have risen significantly after Warren Buffett sold, we should remain investors but not panic.
Furthermore, we are among the very few investors who have already set aside a separate cash reserve in anticipation of such a situation. We are investors who always consider the worst-case scenario, are prepared, and are ready in advance. Currently, Warren Buffett is increasing his investment in energy, and Warren Buffett As I mentioned that investing in the energy sector is not a way to grow assets but a way to protect them, my thinking is that even if we are prepared for a decline to some extent, we just need to seize opportunities when dips occur.
That is why I have continuously emphasized maintaining a cash weight; although I could n't predict exactly when, a decline could happen at any time. Now, the third negative factor is the sharp rise in the yen. To briefly explain why this is bad news, Japan has maintained low interest rates while other countries were all raising them.
Consequently, people borrowed these low-interest yen to deposit in high-interest overseas markets or invested in places that would yield higher returns, such as stocks, real estate, or cryptocurrencies. This type of investment is called the Yen Carry Trade. Now, as the yen exchange rate surges and borrowing rates rise due to interest rate hikes, those who borrowed cheaply will start repaying.
If this capital flows out of the U.S., it could lead to a sudden capital outflow and a market crash. This is precisely the fear of the Yen Carry Trade liquidation, and this uncertainty is further increasing stock market volatility. Furthermore, news of a war in the Middle East has emerged again over the weekend.
Israel is considering a preemptive strike against Iran... From news reports to the U.S. signaling its support for Israel, concerns about a Middle East war are once again gripping the stock market. With all these negative factors suddenly pouring out at once, I am sure everyone watching this video is in pain.
Those of you who have experienced bear markets with me are likely resilient, but new investors must be extremely worried. Your precious money is slowly disappearing, and some of you may even be in the red. However, the fact is that whether this decline is a correction or a bear market, a dip is ultimately an opportunity in the long run.
If you understand capitalism, you must understand why Seoul real estate and U.S. stocks trend upward, and why the much-criticized Korean stock market eventually rises, albeit very slowly. Although the value of currency is invisible, it is gradually falling, while asset values fluctuate up and down before eventually rising.
Ultimately, if you truly look at the long term with me, the U.S. index we are currently investing in is the most reliable investment in the world. If you just utilize your time with me, there is nothing to be afraid of; on the contrary, it is an opportunity to buy cheaply. Pessimism has always existed, and it always feels as though the U.S.
is going to collapse. There has been far more frightening pessimism in the past than there is now: the Vietnam War, the Cuban Missile Crisis, Black Monday, the Great Depression, the Iraq War, the DoK.com bubble, and 9/11. From the Lehman Brothers crisis to the coronavirus, there were crises far more frightening than the current ones, yet US stocks have ultimately continued to trend upward.
Ultimately, we must endure short-term volatility. Pessimism is frightening, but we must hold on until the end. And now that uncertainty is growing, the VIX index is rising to record highs. However, ironically, when the VIX index rose significantly, it was actually an excellent timing for buying. Furthermore, if we look at the long term—2030 and beyond—with me, the current pessimism and uncertainty do not actually have a significant impact on our profits.
Even if we examine all past instances where the VIX index rose to record highs, some crises eventually come to an end, and they all delivered high returns. However, the majority will drop out again this time. In fact, there are likely quite a few who have already dropped out. I uploaded this video in January 2022, stating that because there was a possibility of a correction or a decline this year, perhaps 80% of long-term investors would drop out.
If you look at the comments on that video at the time, they were all about holding out somehow until the end. And so, a decline greater than we anticipated arrived, and 2022... I mentioned that half of long-term investors dropped out somewhere at the bottom this year. However, I advised holding out until the end and continuing to grow.
And as a result of actually enduring this, I am still maintaining high returns despite the current drop. I have also emphasized that preparation is necessary to weather this; that preparation involves keeping a separate cash reserve of 10% to 30% to protect your mental fortitude or to use in case of a decline or crash.
I told you that this would serve as a safety net, and if you utilize time with it, you would n't be afraid. If you could utilize your cash reserves and time, you would n't be writing hateful comments at home right now. You would be contemplating how to seize this opportunity. I believe you have realized through this decline why tenacity, persistence, and patience are emphasized so much in the stock market.
I am consolidating again in this current phase. This is because I maintained my cash reserves according to principle and can utilize time according to principle. And as always, I will grow my assets again through consolidation. Listen carefully, everyone. Your future assets will be determined by the actions you take during this movement.
When I was in the 2022 puddle, regarding bonds... If I had invested, my account would still be plummeting right now. Back then, news was flooded with reports that Big Tech was finished. People said the US stock market was dead, and US stocks fell due to recession concerns. However, I continued to hold onto the US index, the most reliable investment asset, and held on.
And now, my life is changing. We must learn to view this current downturn not as a crisis or an obstacle, but as an opportunity. If you look at it from a short-term perspective, there is certainly a crisis right now. But think about 2030. Is it more likely that prices will rise higher than they are now, or fall lower?
I believe we will eventually overcome this crisis of pessimism. And eventually, some sudden positive news will appear to make our assets jump. If you are feeling scared or sleepy right now, think carefully about why only a select few become rich. I will show you everything firsthand this time as well, so please hang in there with me until the end and make sure to seize this opportunity during this dip. That is all for today's video. If you found my .
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