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Again. Time for the big three. Today we have three promotions, three charts for you. Rick Dukka will guide us through these graphs. Joe Tye, portfolio manager at Equity Armor Investments, will walk us through his picks today. Joe, it's great to have you back . Well, we start the week here . I mean, we have an escalating conflict in Iran.
We have some agreement between Ukraine and Russia regarding the attack on oil refineries, which is just coming to an end. Our market is completely in the red due to the potential slowdown of artificial intelligence. Our oil price is above $100 per barrel. I could go on and on. I mean, how do you look at things now?
Especially for this AI sale ? Yeah, thanks for inviting me, boy. Yes, you just listed a whole list. This is what worries me. I mean , the market is constantly facing this as well. Just these endless fears. And yes, these are very real, legitimate concerns , and I don't want to downplay any of them. But, going back to your previous guest, earnings are, of course, critically important.
So I want to focus on this AI story today, although I think the Saudi assembly line story is very important and I'm following it closely. But as for AI, watching Dario's comments this weekend, I think he may be right and is also trying to stick a very fine needle into his own interests here. Yes, AI needs to be regulated.
AI is very scary, and it is very difficult to track these self-learning models in real time. That may be true, but it’s also very valuable if you’re telling your customers, “Hey, this technology is the most dangerous technology in the history of mankind. I control it, but you can also trust me because I worry about all these things." So, it may be selfish, and maybe that's exactly what the company needs to buy time through this IPO while these models learn to monetize themselves and figure out how to make money.
So, I guess my theory is that this might be exactly what the market needs in the long run. Eh, just let these companies go through their IPO, let these companies reach their valuation. And for me, ultimately, the real test has always been whether these companies can make a profit in two or three years , whether they can turn these LLMs into something that will consistently make them money.
Uh, and that's what , uh, worried the market. Uh, and maybe it just pushed their deadlines forward another year or two. Yes, and the only thing it gave us was a little more clarity on these IPOs. I mean, OpenAI is coming out and saying we're not going to do an IPO in 2026 , and I think they used the term " recklessly" if they did.
But now we have a report from Axios, at least one of the sources, reporting that Anthropic will hold an IPO this year. So, uh, we'll see how this all plays out. But let's talk about your deals today. Some of them will benefit from this sale. We see that the first one, Palantir, is up about 2 1/4%. We see these cyber names moving up today.
Palantir occupies a category of its own in cyberspace, but how do you view Palantir now? Yeah, they're, you know, kind of agnostic to frontier models, but yeah, they're in the AI ecosystem . It doesn't matter which one, but they are in all of these data centers. They have technologies that are really critical to governments and big business in terms of how this data is used.
And so, if you think about this data being all-powerful, Palantir would be one of the companies that would be able to harness that power very effectively. So, I believe this is a company that is a must-have in the future, present, and long term. Just watching this AI story develop to its ultimate growth...I think there's a lot of uncertainty.
What the end point of this AI story will actually be is up to you , but Palantir will be there. It will implement any existing model and be part of the use of that data, which is actually the end result . How do we use this data? How do we learn from this data? How do we turn them into something useful for companies, governments, hospitals, and in the future?
Okay, Rick. So, when we look at Palantir, we see a pretty interesting chart. Overall, it has been fairly flat over the last year. But if you look at it since the earnings report was released in August, you can see that the stock is trading in a new range and rising. Yes, you know, the scientist Galileo said: " Measure what can be measured, and make measurable what cannot be measured." And that's what really impresses me about Palantir, because they have a unique data set that you can't get anywhere else.
So when we look at our chart further, we see that we recently peaked at 187. That's where the old high is. And then we also have a descending trendline, which gives us a descending wedge shape between the two white lines. So this is usually seen as a bullish type of setup. So we see that now we seem to be getting a foothold here at 166, our green line, which represents the old low and then the next high.
This could be an interesting type of setup. So , of course, there is no guarantee that it will move up from this model. But, uh, then we're looking for a breakout beyond either of those two boundary lines. This is an important part because it can trigger a cascade of orders that will lead to a breakout.
So, next we have our 5-day and 21- day moving averages converging at about 170, 170, 171. So our two exponential moving averages that we're following, which are the shortest- term, are right above each other, and price is now breaking above them. The day is still quite young, but this is again an interesting situation because if we go too far, we will break through the convergence of our moving averages as well as our trend line.
The RSI, our momentum indicator, shows that although our rising green trend line has been broken, we are now breaking back above the 50 moving average line on the RSI, suggesting a more bullish trajectory for our price action. Volume profile, pretty clear nodes here, pretty obvious areas of interest.
One here, 174 to 187, and then the control point is contained here, in the larger node, 128 to about 138. Okay, and Palantir is now at 171.50. It is trading 2 1/2% higher due to the reaction to this potential AI slowdown. Oracle is your next choice in the big three. They are trading lower. We are down about 4 1/4% on the news here, caught up in the sell-off.
But what I just mentioned about the open AI IPO being delayed until at least 2027 may play a role here in your Oracle thesis. So how do you approach Oracle now, Joe? Yes, absolutely. So, what I was talking about earlier, and how this expectation deviation could ultimately benefit these IPOs, I think Oracle is very closely tied to OpenAI's valuation.
They have huge future liabilities stemming from OpenAI. They spend a lot of money building these data centers. They really need OpenAI's IPO to be successful. They need them to go to market and use these data centers that they are building, but they already have a huge infrastructure. Their growth has been phenomenal, and it's...
Yeah, you think about it. That's why Oracle stock is under pressure. They are concerned about OpenAI's path to revenue. They are also more concerned about Larry Ellison's sale of 15 million shares . So maybe we have a little longer runway for OpenAI now, and we also learned last weekend that Larry Ellison isn't going to sell his shares right now.
Maybe he'll do it with a higher grade. Maybe he'll make it over 200, but right here, by these estimates, he's not considering it. Uh, yeah, I think, uh, that's a good position. If you think about the long-term picture, you think about the stocks that are falling today, uh, that's something I'm looking at very closely .
Good. So, today they are falling. It has also declined since the earnings release, despite revenue growth being just over 30%, if memory serves. So, Rick, when you look at Oracle's technical structure and its huge role in funding the building of this AI infrastructure, how do you look at it? Yeah, another piece of news is that, uh , they announced another round of layoffs this morning.
So that was also, uh, breaking news today. So now we have, in this case, the lows of 114.50 - this is where the price bottomed out. Our 52-week lows are right there. Uh, we had an ascending channel pattern, but it looks like it's broken out now. Today's price action is opening below the , uh, limit that we set there.
However, we also haven't broken through the lower limit of our range, which is around 139. So, on the one hand, it's a breakout to the downside, but on the other hand, we're holding above this support area, which stands out quite noticeably in the short term. 171 is our next high that needs to be broken upwards.
And also we had a gap around 198 that was never completely filled. So, next think about our moving averages, even more converging than our previous one. In this case, we have 5- day, 21-day, and 63- day, representing 1 week, 1 month, and 1 quarter, respectively. They all align with each other at about 149 to 151 or so .
So, in this case, the more indicators converge at one point, the more important it is. They are being watched by different, you know , several pairs of eyes, whoever is watching these types of indicators. So, this also stands out as a short-term potential resistance area. RSI is getting slightly worse.
We broke below our green ascending trend line and also broke below the 50 moving average at the same time. So, there is a somewhat bearish development here. Again, it's still pretty early in the day. We are just starting our trading week. So it's important to see how well things can recover today . We also see that our volume profile study shows that our control point is about where we hit our high for the day, our thick red line here, around 147.
So the overall range here, from 139 to 155, is a significant area of heavy trading . Also note the large volume spikes over our last few sessions. So, we've seen a lot with this name lately, to say the least. Uh, of course. I mean, Oracle is down about 4% right now. Again, stuck in this selloff is AI , trading around 144.28.
Your last name, however, benefited greatly from the announcement of Dario Amadei of Palo Alto Networks, and these cyber names are really exceeding expectations today. Palo Alto Networks, one of the top companies, is now up almost 13% for PANW. So how do you assess PANW, and is it just because of how we look at the situation today , or were they already on your radar prior to the potential slowdown in AI development ?
Yes, they are on my radar. This is a company we've owned for a long time, and yeah, I mean, it's strange that this kind of news has caused this kind of reaction. I'm surprised it was so low. Nevertheless, yes, you look at the price dynamics today. Every time I look at her, she's a little taller than she was last time.
And this is just relentless shopping. I think that makes sense. There will be new levels and levels of this security. Every new data center is another type of security. Every new model is a new entry point for security. So, it's just critically important, and the need for it is growing. So this has to be part of the AI game that owns cybersecurity companies.
And every company should be very critical about this. I do n't think people should have paid attention to this weekend's news, but maybe the market is catching up to it right now as they are a little more critical of what it all means. These are recursive learning models that artificial intelligence companies are working on.
Okay, Rick. So, if we look at the market that could potentially catch up with us, we have 100% growth for Palo Alto Networks since the beginning of the year. But it's interesting that if you look at the last month, we're actually down 3%. So, in terms of technical indicators, what levels stand out? Yes, the profits this time didn't really do them any good, despite what seemed to be a pretty strong environment.
We did have a noticeable drop, which basically in terms of closing prices remained around 328 , our green line. Another low point here, near 308, has yet to be tested, but it stands out as another extreme low that traders should pay attention to. We also see that our profit gap here was around 356. It has clearly been overcome at this point.
We also had an old break in a series of highs near 342 , which marked the low of today's trading. So now we also see that we had a downward trendline from the highs and an upward trendline through the lows, giving us this triangular shape . The price seems to be pushing above this triangle now. So, the next potential stop , if this holds, would be this set of highs around 387.
So, interesting move today, to say the least, as well. So now our volume, our moving averages here show that the 21-day and the 5-day, uh, were on top of each other. We've broken through them now. So, expect the faster 5-day EMA to be closer to our price action as a possible support level if the movement starts moving down again.
RSI, we broke through our red downtrend line here and back above the 50 moving average. So it looks like what we were talking about earlier here about it being more of a bullish type of setup when these two things happen, especially when they happen at the same time. Another thing to note is that our 63-day EMA was quite favorable here.
It seemed like the price could often recover above this level here. So, just to illustrate how these moving averages can be support during uptrends and resistance during downtrends here. So here our volume profile shows that we had a node somewhere between 325 and 363. Not exactly one very consistent big node, more like two smaller spikes at about 3:30 and 3:50 or so , but now we're still moving above that into a thinly traded area on the highs.
So be careful with rapid price changes in such situations. Yes, Palo Alto Networks is currently the session's best performer in the S&P 500, up nearly 13% today. Joe, I want to thank you for being with us today during the big three, Joe Tygue, and of course Rick Duke Ket for always being with us to sort out the technical aspects.
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