저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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Peter Schiff은 달러 체제의 한계와 연준의 완화 재개를 근거로 금광주가 이번 사이클의 새로운 기술주가 될 것이라고 주장한다. 금광주·금 전망: 2000년대 초 닷컴 붕괴 후 2002~2008년 완화기에 기술주보다 금광주가 더 좋았다는 점을 근거로, 이번 완화 사이클도 금광주가 유리하다고 본다. 금은 분기 중 약 140달러 상승해 1970달러에서 마감, 2000달러 돌파 가능성을 언급하며 큰 상승을 예상한다. 인플레이션·연준: 근원 PCE 전년대비 약 4.6%로 연준 목표 2%를 크게 웃돌며, 인플레이션이 쉽게 내려가지 않는다고 본다. 연준이 금리 인상을 멈추고 사실상 양적완화를 재개했으므로 인플레이션 재점화와 달러 약세를 전망한다. 기술주 전망: 기술주 투자자들이 지난 완화기 재현을 기대하나 틀렸다고 주장하며, 기술주 상승 기대에 대해 부정적이다. 비트코인: 최근 큰 폭 반등했으나 투기적 위험자산 랠리일 뿐이라며 비트코인 보유자는 금으로 갈아타라고 권한다. 그레이스케일 비트코인 트러스트도 언급했다. 해외 증시: 미국 주식 대비 해외 증시가 분기 중 상대적으로 나았고, 하반기 특히 달러 약세 시 해외 자산과 귀금속이 유리하다고 본다. 리스크: 금광주 투자 시 철저한 조사가 필요하며, 달러 약세 지연이나 인플레이션 둔화 시 전망이 빗나갈 수 있다는 점을 간접적으로 인정한다. 자사 금 펀드 및 별도 계정 운용을 권유하는 홍보성 요소가 있다.
다듬은 글
one of the reasons that people are so arrogant particularly in America that the dollar status is not in jeopardy and so that we can keep on running these huge deficits we can create keep on creating inflation and the world's got no choice right but to stick with the dollar because are they going to go to the euro are they going to go to the Yen you know the pound I mean they're winning B I agree all of those currencies also have problems and so do you really want to switch from one flawed fiat currency to another even if those other Fiat currencies may be less flawed than the dollar right do you really want to make that shift I don't think that that's what's going to happen what everybody is missing is that there is an alternative to the dollar that doesn't involve another fiat currency and that's gold there's a new game in town gold stocks are taking the market by storm and Savvy investors are jumping on board in this video we'll explain why gold reserves are taking over the markets and why you should be paying attention welcome to my channel in today's video we are talking about why so much emphasis is being laid on gold this year 2023 and we will be looking at what Peter Schiff has to say for years tech stocks have been dominating headlines and driving the economy however as we've seen in recent years the tech industry can be volatile and subject to rapid changes in consumer behavior and market trends his goal to Safe Haven asset well let's find out together as Peter Schiff schools us on why the Gold stock is gaining popularity and how you should get started as an investor what I think should be going on right now is more people who are buying these tech stocks should actually be buying gold stocks instead because I think the gold stocks are the new tech stocks for this new easing cycle the people who are buying tech stocks all quarter we're correct in their judgment that we were coming to the end of the tightening cycle because we were and they were correct to anticipate that there would be an easing which there already has been I mean the FED has already acknowledged that it's probably not going to hike much if at all and whether they want to admit it or not they're back to quantitative easing although uh this week on on Thursday when they reported the balance sheet it actually shrank Again by about 25 billion so we didn't have a third week in a row of an expansion there was a little bit of a of a contraction but I think that is the exception not the rule I think going forward we're going to see the balance sheet continue to expand every once in a while there may be a weekly contraction but the direction now for the balance sheet is up but I think investors are wrong in thinking that this easing cycle is going to be good for tech stocks I think they've got it wrong the last easing cycle was great for tech stocks but I don't think that we're going to repeat that I think this time around it's going to be gold stocks and in fact if you go back to the 2000 a bubble that popped and you know NASDAQ was down 80 percent mostly because of those tech stocks the tech stocks rebounded from 2002 to 2008 when we had the financial crisis but the gold stocks did much better during that easing cycle because you know the FED moved rates down to one percent and then kept them there for a while and then gradually normalized but during that entire cycle the gold stocks actually did much better than the tech stock so I think the same thing is going to happen this time it's not going to be the people in tech stocks are going to make money again like they did uh from 2000 and you know nine-ish all the way through 2021 or whatever that that bubble finally peaked it's not going to be the same nor is it going to be the crazy days of the coveted lockdowns where all these tech stocks you know went went ballistic because what I think investors don't get is that inflation is the wild card because it's not going back down the last easing cycle was good for tech stocks because inflation was below two percent at least the inflation that anybody admitted to right the Fed was below two percent and so in that environment it was able to get away with quantitative easing low interest rates and and the dollar was strong during that time period and so I think this favored the tech stocks but I don't think this easing cycle is going to look anything like that because what I think is going to happen this time is inflation is already well above two percent and you know we got some more inflation data on Friday we got the personal consumption expenditure uh index and contained within that number there was a better than expected reading on inflation but just barely the core pce which is the least accurate and therefore the fed's favorite way to measure inflation because it understates it the most it was supposed to go up by 0.4 on the month and it went up by 0.3 I mean big deal because point three annualized is still way above uh the feds two percent uh level I think it's right now if the annualizes out I think year over year we're at 4.6 rise in the core pce you know the core right that strips out uh food and energy right which was even higher but even if you strip that stuff out and you go down to the core you're still at 4.6 percent year over year yes that was slightly better than the 4.7 percent that they were looking for but it's nowhere near the two percent but what's more significant about that is that that's where the year-over-year core pce is when the FED has stopped the inflation fight it is no longer hiking rates but more importantly than the rate hikes is it's back to quantitative easing the FED is creating inflation the FED is printing money all over again and that just fuels the inflation fire so I think we're we're kind of a trough inflation now maybe it gets a little bit lower but we're not going to get anywhere near two and then we're just going to pick up momentum and head for new highs and that is going to create a completely different environment for tech stocks and for gold stocks I will continue uh talking about this after the ETF that was up 29 remember that was beaten down the most and so it had an even bigger rebound as investors are again making the wrong assumption that this easing cycle is going to be a carbon copy of the last one and so they want to buy the you know the crappiest type names the most speculative names like the ones that are in that Fund in fact getting to crappy speculative names Bitcoin as I alluded to earlier in my April Fool's joke was up about 70 percent on the quarter and I know all the Bitcoin guys are just you know excited about this and bragging about how this is the top performing asset in fact the grayscale Bitcoin trust did even better it was up a hundred and twenty percent on the quarter so the discount narrowed as some more people are betting I guess that maybe they might be able to get this thing to be an ETF and they'll be able to cash out at nav or something like that but so the grayscale Bitcoin trust which was down more than Bitcoin in 2022 has rebounded more than Bitcoin in uh 2023 and you know the Bitcoin story is a little bit different because not only is it Rising with the other highly speculative risk on Tech names but a lot of people in the Bitcoin community are reacting to this fed pivot because part of the rationale for buying Bitcoin was similar to my rationale for wanting to buy gold or wine to buy gold stocks which was that I knew that eventually the Fed was going to Pivot because I knew that it's feigned inflation fight would create a financial crisis and that the minute that financial crisis reared its head the FED would be forced to Pivot in its inflation fight because it would become more concerned over the impending financial crisis and so that is where we are and so we've now got the unofficial pivot I mean the reason I'm saying it's unofficial is because the FED hasn't cut rates and even though it's done quantitative easing it's kind of denying that it's doing it and it's come up with these BS excuses why what it's doing is not quantitative easing even though it's doing exactly what it was doing when it was admitting to doing quantitative easing but you have to read between the lines it's not that hard to do that right because you know there's a lot there the lines are pretty wide but you have to read between them and recognize that the FED is already pivoted I mean you can't wait for an engraved invitation Because by the time that happens I mean you know the prices of gold and things like that are going to be much much higher which is why I've been encouraging people to buy by the way gold itself was up about a hundred and forty dollars an ounce on the quarter we didn't close the quarter above 2 000.
we poked above it a couple of times we closed at 1970 dollars an ounce so the markets are giving you an opportunity to buy gold below 2000. I don't know how much longer that opportunity is going to be there but I do expect to see a big move up in the price of gold which is why I've you know really have been suggesting very strongly that those of you who have been on the fence regarding their purchases you know get off the fence and and make your purchase contact shift gold uh and do that or you know talk to the Reps at your Pacific Asset Management about getting involved in the mining stocks through a separately managed account through my uh through my gold fund and if you own Bitcoin and you didn't sell last year sell now you've got this Great Rally in Bitcoin I mean we're not quite back to thirty thousand but maybe we're as close as we're going to get we'll see I mean it's hard to know exactly when this thing is going to run out of steam uh maybe it's doing it now but you know it's up around 28 000.
there is a lot more optimism now in Bitcoin I've noticed that I think because that the FED has gone back to QE because everybody realizes that they're going to be cutting rates because we're embarking on a financial crisis and the Bitcoin people think this is it this is the moment we've been waiting for right no it's the moment I've been waiting for they've been waiting for it too but they're betting on the wrong horse because what this moment is going to do is expose the FED it's going to destroy the dollar and it's going to result in more people moving into gold as an alternative to the dollar they're not going to be moving into Bitcoin people think they will but they're wrong but because other people still think that's going to happen you've got this rally so people who are in Bitcoin you have an opportunity now to to change horses and actually get on the winner and get off of this this horse I know yes uh Tudor Jones said it was the fastest horse in the race but I don't think it's in the race anymore I think it's headed to the glue factory so you got to get on the Gold Horse if you want a faster horse so a lot of people you know they did okay in q1 they made some money in these tech stocks you know they made money even in bonds rallied a bit but don't be lulled into a false sense of security if you stay on that path you are not going to make money in fact you could lose a tremendous amount of money what's even worse it's not just losing money it's losing purchasing power because even if you don't lose your money your money is going to lose its purchasing power so what you got to do is again read between the lines and the writing on the wall and change your portfolio you know foreign stocks again beat the U.S stock market they didn't beat the NASDAQ but you know the beat the Dow beat the s p uh so the foreign markets are already doing better but I think that they'll do even better in the later quarters of the Year protect particularly in the back half of the Year relative to the U.S market when the dollar really starts to fall and that gives a big Tailwind to the non-dollar portfolio and in particular the gold and precious metals to sum up investing in gold stocks is a great way to diversify your Investments and reduce risk while still taking advantage of the potential rewards that come with Rising precious metal prices however it is essential that you do thorough research beforehand so that you can make decisions based on what best suits your individual needs and objectives I hope this video has given you some insight into why investing in gold may be a good idea for some investors especially those looking for an alternative way to participate in potentially lucrative upside opportunities while reducing risk at the same time if you enjoyed today's episode of the economy diary and want to stay informed about the happenings in our world today please hit the Subscribe button and remember to turn the notification Bell to see more videos daily thanks for watching everyone until next time foreign
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