저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
8월 말 GDP 추정치(3.5%) 상향과 PCE 대체로 예상 부합을 들어 경기 혼조를 설명. 기업 설비투자(AI 관련)는 강하나 고용·Chicago PMI는 침체 신호로 봄. 시장은 리사 쿡 연준 이사 해임 소송 결과를 기다리는 경계 국면이며, 리사 쿡 사안이 연준 독립성 훼손으로 번지면 금리 상승·주가 하락 우려. 바이오 저자는 S&P500 장기 9,900 전망(BofA 인용) 등을 소개하나 본인 콜은 아님.
다듬은 글
Well, this morning we got economic data that's well quite mixed. This morning the Atlanta Fed gave us probably the most bullish piece of information and that is that the initial estimates for the third quarter gross domestic product are skyrocketing 3.5%. Now remember, we had a big negative in Q1, a slight negative in Q1, which then we averaged the Q2 out with to say, oh, growth is only about 1 to 1 and a.5%.
It's one of the things that Powell and folks at the Fed have been talking about. Oh, you know, growth is slowing, growth is slowing. Even Waller yesterday, growth is slowing, growth is slowing. Well, apparently GDP now model suggests that this is not true. that the US in the third quarter is actually growing to the pace of three and a half percent up from 2.2% August 26th.
Why? That's because of recent releases on personal consumption expenditures growth. Those are those PCE numbers we got this morning. PCE, by the way, this really comes as no surprise and we should, you should know this. We've talked about it on channel. We've talked about it in the alpha report. PCE is generally not a surprise.
Why? Because most PCE in terms of price inflation comes from CPI and PPI which is data we got over two and a half weeks ago. So not a surprise that PCE price indices match on month over month, match on year-over-year, match on core, match on core year-over-year. All four of them were just a match of expectations.
This is why I say PCE is really a nothing burger. But what we can see is that personal income and personal spending was up higher uh than people have broadly been looking for uh in markets though over time. We've seen uh these expectations come up. So we technically matched here as well. We just had higher revisions for the prior reading.
So the Atlanta Fed is saying, "Hey, this is great. Not only are we doing great on people spending money, but we're doing great on private uh domestic investment growth in America increasing from 2.2 uh to uh sorry, increasing personal consumption increasing 2.2%. But domestic investment growth increasing 4.4%.
Uh which is phenomenal. Uh actually, I'm sorry, we're going from 4.4 4 to 6.1% on domestic investment growth. The personal consumption level is not moving as much 2.2 to 2.3. But that domestic investment growth, so people investing into machinery, capex, AI, business spending, you name it, really popping it off.
This is something that Waller talked about yesterday is that will the uncertainty that businesses are facing lead to uh people finally saying, "All right, we can't be uncertain forever. Let's just pull the trigger and make a decision here and go spend or do we fall into a recession?" The hope is that businesses say, "F it.
We've waited long enough for tariff impacts. Let's go spend." And this is in the face clearly that's the choice that businesses are making right now. This is in the face of 54% of businesses thinking that price increases are still ahead of us. This is the uh Chicago PMI read which indicated 54% of businesses think that price increases are still ahead of us.
And this Chicago report wasn't great. This was some of our more bearish news this morning along with consumer sentiment. Consumer sentiment coming in a little bit lower because expectations were falling. Still an expansion at 55.9 but under that estimate of 57.5 and below the last read of 572. Inflation expectations slipping though despite the fact that you're you're still seeing an increase of prices broadly.
Uh inflation expectations now over the next year at 4.8% and over the next 5 to 10 years 3.5% per the uh University of Michigan survey. That said, look at the Chicago barometer. the Chicago barometer which they describe themselves and I take some issue with this. They describe themselves as a leading indicator.
They collect data from Chicago area manufacturers and producers. They say that we have now unwound the rise uh of the readings that we've seen in July and we're now below 50 for 21 consecutive months. Plus, we've seen a sharp decline in new orders and a fall of employment. We've also seen now the largest fall in new orders since September of 23, which I don't think that was a particularly useful month.
So, I don't know how much that matters. But employment compressed to the lowest level since June of 2022 or sorry, 2020 COVID levels here with production softening to the weakest since December of 2024. So really what you're getting here is this sort of bizarre environment where GDP looks and this is the Chicago MI but we're going to write some notes here.
You're in this environment where we'll write this down here. We'll just make this a nice little let's go with like yellow so it's nice and bright. Oh, there we go. Okay, we'll go yellow here. We'll go uh we'll go red on this. Okay, it's like a thumbnail. All right. Uh so what you're seeing is businesses uh plowing uh into capex which is helping boost GDP domestically right this is a huge boost to GDP problem is uh employment still showing big red flags and that's what you're seeing in the Chicago PMI report that's what you're seeing with what Waller said yesterday that we constantly uh we we are seeing continuous slowing in employment partly because of AI.
If almost like businesses are saying we don't need to spend on people, we need to spend more on machines. Do I get it? I mean, even House hack, which we just raised in August, I didn't even realize this until, you know, just like an hour ago. We raised over seven figures in August. Over six figures just in the last 3 days.
And we haven't even made like Houseack video, I feel like, this month. You know, it's just I think people are like they see the writing on the wall that rates are coming down, that real estate's going to be the next frontier. Uh they see what we're doing with AI. They know we've got our beta release coming up uh for for course members uh for the house hack AI.
Hopefully Q4 is the target. We're investing in equipment. You know, we're buying uh RTX 6000s for house hack for house hack just like Disney is the AI data center uh uh you know braid uh GPUs. Uh, and so it's really exciting, but but that's an example there. Like we're an actual business throwing more money into capex than in staff because we don't need the staff.
We can get so much more done in part, yes, because of AI, but we'd rather spend more money on chips than on payrolls. Like, I'd rather buy Nvidia chips all day long than pay more money in payroll right now. It like it doesn't talk back to you. It doesn't call in for time off. it it doesn't complain or whine or whatever.
That's not to say people don't matter. I'm just saying I think broadly that's what a lot of businesses are doing right now. And so when we when we try to weave like how do we consolidate like is this data really just that noisy? Maybe not. Maybe it's actually exactly what you would expect is businesses are investing in in systems in infrastructure uh and less into humans.
Now, when we actually look at the Chicago PMIs to see if they are truly a leading indicator, I personally find them to be a little bit complicated in terms of a leading indicator because look at this. The Chicago Miis plummeted in March of 2000. I don't, you know, all the way into 2001, but so stocks were falling then as well.
And then in September of 2008, Chicago PMI plummets, but that wasn't a leading indicator. That was a reaction to, hey, we're in recession. Leman Brothers collapses. Boom. It collapses. Then what you see over here is, you know, 2019, you have this weird little landing over here at the end of 2015. 2019, you get a little bit of a leading indicator into COVID and then you get this collapse when the Fed U-turns over here on rates.
But I don't know how good this is as a leading indicator. I think one of the reasons you're seeing this sort of compression is what I like to call it. Uh let's do this here. So, let's make this box nice and big because I I want you to see this. I think this is pretty valuable. So, we're going to go here.
Look at this. Okay, if I get rid of the yellow here, look at this consolidation right here. See that? This is in the Chicago PMI. Now, let me drag this out. We are like in recessionary territory historically. We are at the lows of these Chicago PMI readings. Why? Well, maybe because rates are high. Smaller companies that can't spend money on capex are getting crushed.
The desire to hire people is falling. And you're seeing that in the data. So, like what's actually happening is what you're seeing in the data. And it it makes sense. And like to me, I feel like I'm in a unique position because I could see the decisions we're making as a company with House Act. Uh now, of course, you know, markets today are a little fussy.
And I'll explain why markets are a little fussy today. Uh, you know, this morning in the alpha report, uh, we gave a few calls. Number one, we said, "Wait on the cues. Do not buy calls on the ques." Somebody asked me right here like, "Oh, should I buy calls on the cues today?" I go, "No." I'll tell you why I said no in just a moment.
I said, I'm like, I'm not personalized financial advice, but I don't think it's time for calls on the Q's. So, in our alpha report, we're like, no, wait. Like, don't touch this. And look, the Q's fall off a cliff. And then in the alpha report as well, we said don't yolo into a firm. And sure enough, we're lower on a firm than where we were uh at the open certainly since the first 5 minutes of the day, but also in pre-market.
This is exactly the opposite of yesterday where people were writing me nice memos and letters. They're like, Kevin, I just I made so much money on the snowflake calls yesterday cuz we were up, you know, 8% in pre-market and then we ran all the way to 22% up on the day, which is awesome. Uh, and then this morning somebody's like, "Hey, are we going to go calls on Snowflake again?" And I'm like, "No, you're going to have some give back today." Wow, that's, you know, down 1.3%.
It's not a big give back, but like these are just the little calls that you could see in writing or in our course member live streams in the alpha report. I also in the alpha report this morning, which you get lifetime access to if you use coupon code bullish catalyst over at me.com, I also mentioned that Tesla's probably going to struggle at 347.
And sure enough, uh, another struggle said at 347. So, why is the market fussy today? Well, the market uh today is frustrated because of Lisa Cook. Okay, markets want to know what's going to happen with Lisa Cook. This is we said, "Look, you really can't go calls until you hear what happens with the Lisa Cook hearing, which is scheduled for 7 a.m.
That's an hour and a half ago now at this point." Because if judges get serious power to align with Donald Trump and say, "That's right. Start picking people off at the Fed, you're going to see yields go up and you're going to see stocks go down." We're at all-time highs. There's not much of an appetite right now for this sort of nervousness, especially when you see margins compressing at Dell.
You see, you know, Nvidia obviously once they remove their Chinese earnings softening a little bit on that data center revenue. And while it was like a total nominal miss and Nvidia still has like the most pricing power of any company in the world, it's enough for people to go, you know what, maybe maybe we just need to wait a little bit to see what happens with Cook.
And so this is the strategy we set up today. We set up that wait for the Lisa Cook information before you go bullish because what you really need is a judge to say, "No, we're going to let Lisa Cook go through a period of due process. we're going to give her a chance to testify. Uh, and we're not going to let the president fire people from the Fed without due process.
Now, if it truly comes out that she is guilty and she's, you know, the Department of Justice comes out and says, you know what, she not only is she indicted, she is convicted of fraud on on mortgage applications. Then we can start evaluating, all right, she's now convicted of fraud on mortgage documents.
Now, we're willing to say you have enough cause and you can go ahead and remove her even though the the issue happened before she was ever a fed governor, right? Uh but for a judge today to say that's right, kick her out, Marcus be pissed and and and they should be because it basically says we don't have a system of checks and balances.
It basically says we have a system of one party rule or one person, one man rule. We now have uh Japan cancelling planned White House trip. More tariff drama, I guess. Uh but anyway, you know, that's my sort of distillation. Uh but there's also Bank of America. Take a look at this. This I thought was there were some really cool notes in this.
Okay, so first of all, Bank of America talks about how China has become the world's best performing stock market over the past 2 years, though they're, you know, stock market to bond ratio not doing as well. Uh, but take a look at this. Some of these notes are absolutely incredible. So, I want to shout these out.
And this is why I I always like to say if you make it to the end of these these video segments, you get you get a lot of extra data. Like, I don't I don't try to ramble my videos off. I want to give you extra data. Uh, you know, it's like your reward, the icing on the cake. So listen to some of this.
All right. Financial asset prices right now relative to GDP are just below the peak that we saw in the second quarter of 2021. Okay. You know what the second quarter of 2021 was? That's when we got the SH19. Who remembers that? Who was here for that? Leave a comment. Uh that was crazy. Then we got uh and then I think it was Wait, there was another one.
There was or was or was it Prey? There was Prey. We got two. We got Prey. Prey. Oh, Prey was first. Prey was Q2 2021 and then I think it was Jan um Q1 2022 was SH9T. That's what it was. Cuz the first time we got Prey and we're like, "Oh, this is this is not good." Uh, and then we got SH19, which the craziest thing about that code is the ninth letter in the alphabet is I.
Like, how do you get that on a Bloomberg terminal code to unlock as your two-factor authentication? How do you get prey and then SH9T? That was just some like crazy omen stuff. Uh, but uh but anyway, that that's that's some crazy stuff. So, anyway, some other notes here. Central bank. Okay, this is interesting.
Look at this. Central bank rate cuts since 2008, global financial crisis. There have been 1641. 91 cuts thus far in 2025, the fastest easing cycle uh since 2020. That's huge. Donald Trump has signed 196 executive orders uh surpassing the rate of FDR. That's crazy. Uh these are some big numbers here.
US labor productivity growth. Look, this is in alignment again with what we're saying. US labor productivity growth just 1.8% in the 2020s now at 1.3% which is similar to 1.2 at the beginning of the 2010s. Remember what Waller said yesterday? Waller's like our numbers are looking like we're in the early 2010s.
This isn't good for the labor market. We need to stimulate the labor market. This is why we need to cut rates now. We need to stop waiting. you know, we were at 2.7% and 2.2% in the 2000s and 90s, respectively. Uh, Bank America thinks that we're going to peak out on the S&P 500 at 9,900 in September of 2027.
So, I don't know if that means like we're going to go through a recession first uh or what, but we're at 6,400 right now on uh on the S&P 500. So that that'd be like another 50% upside there, right? We've got uh S&P price to book ratio currently at the highest level since 1946. So on the expensive side, little enthusiastic there.
Uh 8.1% US graduate unemployment rate in the past 3 months. This is something else that Waller talked about uh this uh you know struggle amongst youth employment which he calls cycllically sensitive and US electricity prices up 6.3% in the past 12 months. This interesting on crypto here.3% is the average allocation to crypto as a percentage of assets under management compared to 2.2% for gold which implies a 7x potential there.
Very very cool. So uh in in terms of allocation, right? We're not we're not saying that, you know, crypto for sure all cryptos are going to 7x, but it gives you a little bit of an idea here. So very very interesting. I again I think if you put all of this together, you know, it's always to me important to to string this all together.
Businesses right now are propping up the economy because businesses can spend and make ROI on AI. That's what we're seeing at Houseack. We're a small business, right? Uh that's, you know, what what I'm seeing in the data across the board at other companies. Companies are throwing money into AI related investments.
They don't want to get left behind. They want to develop their own AI. They want to maybe even license their own AI. I mean, that's what we're planning on doing, you know, because there's there's just so much money in AI software. It's incredible. And really very few people are actually innovating in in real estate AI, which that's just where we think we're going to have a really big competitive advantage because most people on Wall Street don't do real estate and most real estate agents don't do Wall Street.
All right. Uh so, uh real estate investor, it's like real estate investors and stock investors are like two different kinds of evil. It's very interesting. It's rare to get both. Uh so you know if you string all this data together you have an economy that feels bad for people but is great for corporate investment and corporate profits.
And I think that's why we're seeing the GDP numbers pop, which they even say to private domestic investment growth. You know, it's basically your capex growth. Uh it's just weighed down by employment and people, but propped up by AI and and investment. Uh but anyway, in the meantime, we'll be waiting for the Lisa Cook information.
Make sure you get your coupon over at meetc.com. Use coupon code bullish catalyst. bullish catalyst. It is the end of the month, Labor Day coming up here. And uh take advantage of that coupon cod.
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