저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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빌 애크먼이 자신의 투자 철학과 캐나다퍼시픽(CP) 철도 사례를 설명한 인터뷰로, 구체적 단기 시장 전망은 없음. 창업 배경: 하버드 경영대학원 시절 독학 목적으로 피델리티 계좌에 약 1년치 학비에 해당하는 자금을 투입해 투자를 시작했고, 이후 Gotham Partners를 설립했다. 아버지는 젊은 나이의 펀드 설립에 반대하며 기존 대가 밑에서 일하라고 권했다. 투자 철학: 현재 시장 자금의 대부분이 패시브(인덱스·ETF)에 쏠려 있어 기업 경영을 감시하는 소유자 역할이 줄었다고 진단한다. 따라서 해자(진입장벽)가 큰 단순·예측 가능한 현금창출 기업 중 경영이 실패한 곳을 찾아 개입하는 전략을 쓴다. 사례 - 캐나다퍼시픽(CP): 북미 최저 수익률·최저 밸류에이션 철도회사였으며, 지분 약 14%를 매집한 뒤 헌터 해리슨을 CEO로 영입했다. 이사회 표 대결(위임장 대결)에서 7석 중 주주 약 90% 지지를 얻었다고 설명했고, 16개월 만에 주가가 46달러에서 151달러로, 시가총액은 약 80억 달러에서 250억 달러로 상승했다고 언급했다. 다만 항상 이렇게 되지는 않는다고 덧붙였다. 대상 자산(삼성전자, 비트코인, 나스닥, 금리, 환율 등)에 대한 언급이나 1~3개월 가격 방향 발언은 없음. 과거 성과 설명은 예측이 아님.
다듬은 글
to put this in context you were mid-20s and I had just gotten I just started as a rookie professor two years before so bill at the time was trying to set up an interesting business which ultimately became Gotham partners so for those of you who are students as a as a twenty something year old bill set up his first hedge fund so why did you set up Gotham experience is making mistakes and learning from them so that's what I learned no so so the answer is I went to business school to learn how to be a good investor and I learned the first rule of investing which is you do your due diligence before you wire your money and when I got the HBS I actually opened the course catalog for the first time and there wasn't a class on investing in other classes on accounting or classes on Finance so I decided I had to develop my own little self study program and I wanted to so I opened a fidelity brokerage account I said this I had some money I've made in the real estate brokerage business this was my tuition in the investment business and it was about a year of tuition and if I lost it it was as if I had gone to business school for you know two years but paid for three so I figured it wasn't like the the inverse of the Oxford 1+1 program but and you know I the first stock I bought went up and I said okay I found what I want to do a little more involved in that but I I actually my father who's here he came with us that's dad over there in the corner you can ask him whatever questions you want afterwards he told me is a really dumb idea to start an investment fund right out of his aschool and he recommended that I go work for Michael Steinhardt or George Soros or one of the other famous ambassadors at the time but I figured that I knew enough this is the the perils of youth but the answer is I was an entrepreneur and I felt that I wanted to approach investing my own way as opposed to learn from someone else and it's one of the few things you can really learn on your own you can learn investing by reading books by reading annual reports by having a you can have a portfolio and invest $100 and you and you can learn the business unlike many other businesses which require a lot more at least that's what I thought at the time so you went far away from just investing in fidelity type you know on a brokerage platform and Pershing Square has a particular form of investing which some of our members of the audience may not understand and it's sometimes called activist investing so maybe you can just help you know orient the audience about what exactly this Pershing Square capital do what's the general investment style and and why did you set it up that one so the vast majority of capital invested in the markets today is passive so if you think of index funds or ETFs or even the big kind of long only institutions the vast majority of at capital is by charter passive passive means you you do your research and some cases you don't do the research you sort of just blindly follow an index and you're judged based on how closely you follow the index if you think about investing a hundred years ago though investing you had Andrew Carnegie owning 20% of US Steel or you had JP Morgan as a large owner of various companies over time and in the old days of investing an owner would act like an owner so if they were unhappy with the performance of the business they would replace the CEO they were unhappy with the board's judgment they would make changes to the board and as capitalism sort of democratized the investment process and as any kid in business school can open a brokerage account and as its you know the the owners of many of these great businesses over time you know gave the chairs away to a university or their heirs and the ownership was to you know spread out in the Sam Waltons of the world kind of passed away and the boards became to be managed by professional owners and so what we do is we look for situations where a business has lost its way where an otherwise great company within a in a business that we would define as one that has significant barriers to entry that Warren Buffett would describe is having a moat around it a business that is simple predictable generates cash and we can be confident we'll be here fifty years from now a good example as we own a stake in Canadian Pacific which is a railroad in Canada and if you think about the railroad business you know it's not it's a business where they're not gonna build a new one across the street you can't absent some fairly dramatic changes in technology you can be pretty comfortable that you know Goods will be shipped on rail for a very long time to come so we it's a business we can predict we can think about it from a very long-term perspective we can buy it at a price that's interesting and in the case of CP this was the worst run railroad in North America it had the lowest profit margins it was trading at the lowest valuation relative to earnings and had a very unhappy shareholder base but there was nothing they could do about it because they were inherently again the biggest investors tend to be very passive and we saw an opportunity and the opportunity was if you could replace the worst CEO in the railroad industry with the best CEO in the railroad industry a lot of money could be made and we bought first 12% of the stock and then another 2% about 14% of the stock we recruited a guy named hunter Harrison who is widely considered the best railroad executive of all time certainly in North America he had retired at 65 he was 66 and a half he had signed a two-year non-compete with his employer and I think the biggest mistake they made was a two-year non-compete because he was running me off the other Canadian railroad Canadian national and then we hired him as a consultant he helped us study the railroad and he had a fire in his belly and he said look would you be interested in the day job and he said let me check with my wife she said you know what it's time to get you out of the house again and and and we recruited them and then we had to simply put him in place now the problem was Canaan Pacific has one of the most sort of esteemed and illustrious boards in Canada at least at the time and it was the former head of the World Bank of Canada the former CEO of Suncor Energy the former head of the steel business you know it's very very important board and they didn't like the idea that this idea was coming from outside the company so they said no so we went to the shareholders and we ran an election a proxy contest we put up seven directors for seven seats on a 13 seat board and the shareholders voted with us 90% of the time and voted against the other guys and they got between three and eleven percent of the boat we put our directors on we did a review of the best CEOs in the world turns out the guy we identified was the best guy we put him in a CEO and that was 16 months ago and it's almost the most profile railroad in North America after 16 months that's how this guy goes to work socks gone from 46 to 151 dollars a share it's you know a little under 8 billion dollar market cap to a 25 billion dollar market cap that's kind of the perfect example no it doesn't always work that way and I have a feeling that Peter might ask me about one of those cases
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