저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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미국 국가부채(약 36조 달러)가 부채 악순환 임계점에 가까워지고 있으며, 이자 비용이 국방비 등을 넘어설 정도로 급증해 재정적자를 GDP 대비 3% 수준으로 낮추는 긴축이 필요하다고 주장. 적자를 줄이면 금리가 하락해 이자 부담도 줄어든다는 논리. 실행이 늦어지면 경기침체 시 불가능해진다고 경고.
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billionaire investor Rio is sounding the alarm the US national debt is approaching the point of no return with the national debt soaring past $36 trillion the United States is teetering on the edge of a dreaded debt spiral a dangerous cycle where Rising debt leads to skyrocketing interest payments making the problem even worse in with inflation looming history tells us exactly how the story ends a severe economic depression according to Ray Doo doio has studied the downfall of Empires and he sees the warning signs flashing here's doio to explain make sure to stick around till the end of the video because there is a special gift for those who watch the entire video let's get into it uh to me it's it's almost like the circulatory system you know I think that credit is like blood that brings nutrients to all of the parts of the body and it passes through a system that is like arteries and then credit creates debt and the key question if it's healthy is does the debt create an income that is more than enough to service the debt and that's like I don't know eating vegetables or something it's a healthy process and if not credit begins to build up this debt it begin begins to become like plaque in the arteries and you can measure it just just like you could measure it in the arteries and you can see how it constricts that circulatory system because as credit and Debt Service rise you see that it eats up more and more consumption because you have to spend that so you could watch the government do that you can see that how interest is eating up and Debt Service is eating up and that means there's less money and then you also can see how heart attacks take place and they're very you know economic debt heart attacks and the way they take place is by looking at the supply and the demand you if the if you have a lot of debt and then you have a large Supply of debt that has to be bought somebody's got to buy it and so that when you get to the point where there's debt risks there's not only the new Supply that has to be offered but there is the possibility of holders of those debt assets selling those debt assets and so the supply becomes overwhelming relative to the demand and then what that means is it's it's the same a dynamic as it for the government as it is for an individual or a company except the government can print money so when that Debt Service burden rise or there's a big Supply demand imbalance if the government most importantly the central bank doesn't print money and buy it then there has to be a in the price of the debt to constrict borrowing and that borrowing constricted that credit that is not going to come will weaken the economy and and cause bad economic conditions and so they can let that happen or they can print money and buy the debt and monetize it when they do that that's inflationary and it lowers the value of the debt in either case you don't want to hold that debt because either there's a a Debt Service problem or there's a depreciation you get paid back with a greater Supply and cheaper money and that is the Dynamics and that's the mech mechanism and because it can be measured it can be seen in all countries you can watch it happen and so like you're going to your doctor you can measure these things you can see them and you can know what needs to be done Ray doio often Compares debt Cycles to the human circulatory system to illustrate how economies function in a predictable and cyclical manner debt is the blood in the economy just as blood circulates through the body to deliver oxygen and nutrients debt circulates in an economy to provide capital and stimulate growth borrowing and lending allow businesses and individuals to invest expand and consume just like keeps the body alive and functioning credit is the energy Supply in the same way that the human body needs a continuous supply of oxygenated blood economies need a steady flow of credit to remain healthy when credit flows smoothly economic activity thrives the boom and bus Cycles in the economy are like blood pressure fluctuations when there's too much credit pumped into the system like excessive blood pressure the economy overheats leading to economic booms and asset bubbles on the other hand when credit contracts too much it can lead to recessions and depressions just as low blood pressure can cause fatigue or even failure in the human body the long-term debt cycle is similar to the Aging of the body over time as debts accumulate similar to the buildup of cholesterol or aging of arteries the system becomes more fragile eventually a major deleveraging event akin to a heart attack or medical crisis may be necessary to restore balance this is when economies go through major recessions or depression RS the United States has found itself in a very tough spot as of the making of this video the US debt is a whopping $36 trillion a number that is growing with each and every passing second so how does this even happen in the first place just like an individual a country goes into debt when it spends more money than it takes in in 2024 the US federal government took in $ 4.92 trillion in Revenue almost all of this money was generated through tax taxes with individual income taxes Social Security taxes and taxes on corporations being the three largest categories by far since the government took in $ 4.92 trillion in taxes one would logically assume that the government would only be able to spend $44.92 trillion but that is not the case the US federal government spent a staggering 6.75 trillion in 2024 the difference between what the government brings in through taxes and what it spends is known as the deficit this deficit has to be funded through debt this visual here is a helpful breakdown of government income and spending broken down by category what's important here is that the United States spent a whopping $882 billion just paying interest on debt that is more than what the country spent on Medicare defense income Security benefits for veterans education and transportation put another way 133% of all government spending was to pay interest on debt the country incurred in Prior years this chart here is showing how the US national debt is quickly snowballing out of control for years interest on the national debt was steady at relatively consistent levels that has all changed in the last few years annual interest payments on the national debt have more than doubled from where they were as recently as 2021 this is forcing the United States to have to make some very difficult decisions listen to Ray doio explain so what we have is if I'm speaking to you as the government policy makers your condition is is very bad right okay you're not in the middle of it now you in other words we're not seeing that particular Dynamic transpire but uh you have to change your diet you have to change your behavior you have to maybe have a stent put into the equivalent so you asked about what that is so number one is I call it my 3% solution here the solution is you must cut the deficit which is the equivalent of bonds selling down to 3% of GDP and it's 7 and a half% expected now different people have different views as to how to cut it I forget it I don't really care just you have to have a unified agreement every body in Congress and the president and so on should pledge to do that and then the question is how to do it but they shouldn't they should know that number that's about 900 billion a year yeah roughly and that means cutting it as you point out by cutting the deficit by more than half from where it sits yeah yeah well it's yes because it with the continuing the uh the tax cuts Trum tax cuts uh that's that'll be 7.5% and you want to get it down to three and and it sounds Draconian but we did that kind of uh change from 1991 till 1997 and the key there are three keys to this uh do it soon fast when the time is good when the economy is good in other words do it now now okay the temptation is going to say well we're going to ease into this and we're going to be there and we're going to do it in three years from now but if you have a bad economy you you cannot do it okay and that's the that's the worst so we have the best economy and the sooner you do it the more you're going to do it so 3% solution do it now and recognize that you have to De deliver it so if you're having let's say Cost Cuts in government you have to own the number so everybody's got to pledge 3% now the the the arguments as to how to get there but you have to own the number um so much so that you'd say if it's not 3% throw me out of office because I've got to I've got to deliver that number so if somebody if um government cost expense cutting you know and is it really the two trillion number is it the one trillion number is it a half a trillion number we all throw those numbers around you got to own the number and you got to get to three and you can't make it any one thing right but you also have to realize like if you did it um spread out nothing's going to be that big so I mean nothing's going to be insurmountable so the important thing is 3% the other thing about it is to realize that if you make those moves the bond market and what it will benefit you see this and so interest R and interest rates will go down right and interest rates going down interest rate expense is most important in 2024 the United States had a federal deficit of $ 1.8 trillion at the same time the size of the US economy as measured by GDP is 29 .2 trillion this means that the federal deficit as a percentage of GDP is 6.2% Ray doio says that in order for the United States to avoid the worst possible outcome that number needs to come down to 3% as quickly as possible put another way that means the deficit would have to fall by more than half from 1.8 trillion down to closer to 850 billion at the end of the day there are only two things the US can do to lower the federal deficit the first is to increase the amount of money the federal government takes in each year this would mean substantially higher taxes the other option is to cut spending cutting spending would mean potentially cutting programs related to Social Services healthare education and defense both of these options are incredibly unpopular and would be painful for a large portion of US citizens at least in the short or medium term however if the United States is able to make these tough decisions Doo believes the benefit would come in two forms the first one is obvious by reducing the federal deficit the national debt will stop growing as quickly if the economy continues to grow the economy May one day even be able to quote grow into this large amount of debt you see a country having debt is not inherently a bad thing it starts to become challenging when the debt is too large relative to the size of the country the second benefit is less obvious Ray doio believes that if the US is able to reduce the federal deficit the interest rate for the government to borrow money will also Al decline this would help stop the US from entering into the dreaded debt spiral let me explain take a look at this chart here interest rates on government debt are determined by the principle of supply and demand this line here represents the supply of money available for the government to borrow think of this as how much money investors across the world are willing to lend to the US government this line here represents the demand for that money from the United States essentially how much money the US government needs to borrow during any time period perod the point at which these lines cross is the interest rate the United States has to pay to borrow money if the United States is able to reduce the deficit the country will appear to borrow less money to fill the Gap in its budget back to our earlier example if the government spends less money while also taking more money in that difference known as the deficit gets smaller and smaller back to our supply and demand graph this would have the effect of pushing the demand line to the left as the government needs to borrow less money notice how now the point at which the two lines cross is at a lower interest rate this may not seem important but is actually crucial for the us being able to solve its debt problem with a national debt of 36 trillion every 1 percentage Point reduction in the interest rate for the government to borrow money would follow by a staggering $360 billion here's how this could radically improve the finances of the United States if the US is able to cut the federal deficit to 3% of GDP through Cost Cuts and revenue increases that would take the deficit from 1 .8 trillion down to roughly 850 billion let's say for the sake of argument that Doo is correct and interest rates come down as result by two percentage points that would be $720 billion in annual interest savings this would reduce the deficit to about 100 billion or just am easily 0.3% of the country's GDP ultimately only time will tell how things play out for the United States however according to R alio the US must act quickly to avoid the worst possible outcome this really is a Race Against Time as the national debt continues to grow with each passing second as promised and as a thank you for watching this video I have a special treat for you get exclusive access to Charlie munger's 11 mental models to outperform the market completely free and available only through the link in the video description I dedicated hours to creating this document and you won't find this kind of information for free anywhere else online studying Charlie munger's mental models has had a profound impact on my life and I'm confident it can do the same for you don't miss out download it now and start learning enjoy additionally if you have made it this far in the video it is obvious you are serious about learning about investing the economy and how to make money if that is the case make sure to check out this video here as legendary investor Warren Buffett shares his thoughts on the storm that is brewing within the real estate market with over 6 million views Buffett's comments have definitely been getting people's attention I will will see you over there
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