저자: Dylan·Vinnie · 외국인
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마이클 버리가 파월 연준을 거짓말쟁이라 비난한 트윗을 계기로, 연준의 양적긴축(QT)이 실제로는 이뤄지지 않고 있다는 점을 짚는 영상이다. 연준은 2022년 6월 1일부터 MBS(주택저당증권) 보유 축소를 발표했으나, 실제 잔고는 오히려 약 200억 달러 늘어 계획 대비 약 670억 달러 차이가 난다고 주장한다. 잔고는 약 2.7조 달러 수준에서 정체돼 있다. 진행자들은 이 배경으로 MBS 발행 감소를 들며, 연준이 매도에 나서면 주택담보대출 금리를 끌어올릴 수 있어 매도가 어렵다고 본다. 금리 인상을 먼저 하고 자산 축소를 나중에 하는 방안도 거론된다. 연준이 자산을 줄이지 못해 재정 여력(레버리지)도 제한돼 있어, 경기 부양 수단이 약화됐다는 시각이 제시된다. 결론적으로 연준의 말(경기침체 우려 없음)과 행동(자산 축소 실패)이 어긋나, 경제가 생각보다 취약하다는 해석이다. 진행자들은 경기침체가 현실화될 가능성을 부정하지 않으며, 일시적 둔화 후 재가속 가능성도 열어둔다. 중간선거 해(2022)에는 경제 지표가 좋게 나오는 경향이 있다는 농담 섞인 언급과 중국 데이터 신뢰도 논쟁도 짧게 다뤄진다. 영상 전반은 특정 종목 매수·매도 권유 없이 연준 정책 분석에 집중돼 있다.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to stupid gastric socks i'm dylan and i'm vinnie and today we're talking about dr michael berry calling jay pow a damn dirty lying filthy ape emotion that was serious all right guys if you like and uh we're just trying to figure everything out and this is a rough start and we're going to get started messed up subscribers by the way i still love this picture of jay pal more than almost anything else he's just like the way he's pulling his glasses down there it's like that meme you know i think it's j pounds and uh jack ma i think those are the two favorite jack ma with the frown those are up there like about the frown's okay but i don't think it's not on j pal pulling on the glasses kind of like level but this is this is the the tweet i want to talk about and talk a little bit about what he's what he's getting at here um quite the reality given quantitative tightening right yeah no the fed's not actually doing any quantitative tightening basically haha we lied to you uh in fact they haven't reduced mortgages by securities or actually they've been increasing mortgage-backed securities since the start of this qt cycle back on june 1st we're now like almost three months into this whole quantitative site uh tightening cycle and they've basically done nothing but make it worse actually fascinating isn't it so for some context okay it's not they what they promised was they were going to increase rates and then um stop the the mortgage-backed security holdings and and kind of reverse directions they have increased rates there's haven't done the other part yeah well they were supposed to start doing the other part by june 1st they they laid it out pretty pretty significantly in terms of what they're doing so you can actually go on to the federal reserve's website and it'll tell you you know category by category what their balance sheet is of different things every like week basically so you got the mortgage back security line here 2.7 trillion dollars right now right um you kind of have to wonder like all right where was that relative to you know it's kind of peak or you know what has been going on since this whole june 1st timeline so just in the last week you know it actually went up so it was 2.708 trillion here but you know you know this is 2.718 so you're talking about another 10 billion dollars in purchases of the last 10 days i mean seven days okay that's not even looks pretty flat since june 1st 2.698 billion prior to this whole thing yeah i'm sorry not billion trillion yeah don't forget this is the federal reserve these numbers are a whole other level of magnitude higher um but this is actually from a federal reserve press release but you know from may where they laid out their plan for what their quantitative tightening cycle was going to look like so for the the mortgage-backed securities they were initially set to sell into the marketplace 17.5 billion per month for the first three months just a little tease a little taste or tester and then they want to increase that to 35 billion dollars now we're sitting here this is the cell this is what they're offloading off their balance sheet this is how much they're supposed to be doing um in fact so i'm going to rinse it with some math here for you so they should have sold 17.5 billion in june 17.5 billion in july and then i prorated august because we're filming this on the 20th of august um so they should have sold about 11.29 billion so far and in fact they actually increased the amount of mortgage securities on their balance sheet by 20 billion so you're talking about a 67 billion dollar delta between where they should be based upon their plan and where they actually are that's pretty impressive isn't it it's not not super awesome now okay one very impressive research hand to uh two does the rapid increase of rates have anything to do with this is there a chance that maybe as they start to taper the increase of rates they can start to work on this that is a viable explanation the problem with it is is that this in of itself will also move rates for mortgages right um to give you an idea i have another slide here this is looking at the issuance of mortgage-backed securities and if you look at the time period here from the end of 2021 down through the current day you notice it's falling rather steeply right that far fewer mortgage-backed securities are coming on the market you know no new ones are being created at the same level they were last year right okay would that affect their ability to to sell yeah right it's gonna get even worse uh if you're now all of a sudden you know they've built up this massive position and they're trying to sell it into this market which just doesn't have the capacity for it because the market is decreasing you know rather significantly here as far as the speed goes correct like i said these are just new issuances this isn't actual transaction volume of old issuances but you know you're still looking at the whole kind of thought process in terms of the size of the the demand out there in the market if they start selling into this where you know there's just not like this huge volume they're gonna be able to move it that much more meaning that they could put significant upward pressure on the interest rates and you know for mortgages and make it even less affordable for for home prices uh you know for people to be buying homes okay or something to play devil's advocate here because i'm a jerome powell fan i would be the first to sign up if he started normally fans right immediate uh two if they're already increasing rates and if they you know we have a diminishing supply and they're trying to sell because they have a ton of mbs um that's uh code that's how the cool kids say it um wouldn't it i know their initial plan in january was to do both but as a situation starts to play out isn't it fair to i guess make an assumption that you have to do what's best for the time and not hold to the original plan because if they started to sell this is a problem yes completely understood where you're coming from there the kind of worry or argument that i think that you can make based on this is that although they're saying one thing they're doing another right and the action speaks louder than words right so their actions are telling you that that the economy is much more tenuous i think and you know particularly when you're talking about uh the housing market is much more tenuous than they are letting on i i do agree with that because they're essentially saying hey we're completely fined a recession like exactly 100 okay whereas like they're like they're handling uh mortgage-backed securities in particular with kid gloves right now they're just like you know i don't really want to mess with you too much because it's not looking so great already and if i start doing in there like a 300 pound gorilla uh it's not gonna end too well either right now you could argue binds administration is more giving false flags about how the recession is completely fine i don't know if jay powell is yeah yeah i mean that was a great piece of political theater right don't forget it's a midterm election year so you know rule different rules apply in fact this like uh economy only goes up during midterm election years as far as like logic and public speaking so we just shot a video on china which is kind of funny too because like you know that there's always the debate about how much you can trust their data how much can you trust our data right now okay yeah that's fair boy for those of you who prefer a more graphical representation this is this is what the federal balance sheet looks like obviously we saw that explosion during coveted where they had to buy up everything in the sun um and they've theoretically started you know kind of doing this quantitative tightening they have sold off some treasuries but they said the mbs's are actually gone up on their their balance sheet um they basically have been flat for the last several months and they're not really doing a whole hell of a lot in terms of the leveraging which is kind of scary in that like you know i i there's no char i probably should have included in here which was kind of a reversion towards what would be considered like a happy medium um in order for them to reload and get back to that happy medium standpoint where they could have the ability to go ahead and leverage up and take on a bunch of assets in order to stimulate the economy they have to get back to like a four to five trillion dollar balance sheet and they're so significantly above that so they have three and a half trillion that they'd have to liquidate just to get back to a point where they they have the same power to move the economy and they're not able to do it right now they're just right the more assets they have the more diluted their ability to change yeah exactly you know we probably should say call this video like jpow is impotent stop hitting on my man jay pal he's doing his best yeah and like it's not getting better too like this is uh if you actually like charts a little bit more um you're looking at a big positive number here this is this is just recently in the last week on the daily basis they're still accumulating more mortgage-backed securities that's kind of the point here um they're they're not able to deleverage their balance sheet even all the way up until this the end here is my point they're not not only have they failed to do so for the last like two and a half months they're still continuing on a daily basis to continue expanding mortgage-backed securities what if what if speaking from a man j-pal uh they do the interest rates first for a solid six to nine months which i mean let's say they call it in december and we hang out for a little bit and then they work on the mortgage-backed securities not in any way correct with what they were saying for their plan uh like the plan was not this but you know you got to adjust a little bit i don't think they also saw the whole russia ukraine oil situation happening that changes a lot um why couldn't they start working on mortgage-backed security sales in december and don't bring up the fact that the supply is dwindling because that greatly ruins my argument no no that's actually a reasonable point um i just think unfortunately it's going to be too little too late they're not going to be able to start offloading stuff off their balance sheet until we've already kind of broken the economy to a degree like you know it's not gonna be permanently broken but uh yeah to be i think we're not actually in a recession or facing like you know a a moderate contraction in economic growth over the next year or so i think is rather silly from like it's simply logical standpoint we saw a ridiculous level of growth and now we have to kind of cool back off a little bit compared to that um that's not to say that we can't then re-accelerate from that that new state kind of higher level that we've achieved but i think this is difficult uh for them to unload right now which is showing you in fact that the economy is not nearly as strong as they're trying to let on with their public face because like i said their actions are not speaking to that degree all right what's this graph here uh this is just mbs's specifically just you know to kind of break out from that previous one uh basically flat you know same thing okay uh that the cool thing about the federal reserve is a lot of their data is just right out there in public it's you know easily accessible you just have to like take the time to go through it and these numbers are ridiculously large so like it gets a little hard to wrap your mind around the concept of you know 2.7 trillion dollars in one particular asset class right so this is kind of like another video i did with the don't look up right where their people are saying that the recession is not a thing we're gonna be completely fine uh but if you just kind of look at the numbers this is a little bit of a problem small exactly their actions are actually showing you that it's a real problem and that they that's what they believe based upon how they're acting and conducting themselves but in fact their public face is completely contrary to that all right that's what you think let us know what you think yeah see you in the next one
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