저자: Alex · 외국인
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PC 시장(특히 데스크톱)은 2011년 이후 구조적으로 쇠퇴 중이며, 클라우드·모바일 전환과 PC 부품 업그레이드 주기 장기화가 원인이라고 주장. 엔비디아는 게이밍 매출을 줄이고 데이터센터 AI칩에 집중할 것으로 예상. AMD·인텔도 고성능 dGPU 시장보다 서버·모바일·임베디드로 옮겨가는 흐름. 중간에 MooMoo 증권앱 유료 프로모션 광고 포함.
다듬은 글
I think the PC market is doomed yes doomed and AI will be the thing that finally kills it so in this episode I'm gonna lay out all the data for why I think the PC market is going to die and what that means for companies like Nvidia AMD and even Intel all of which have huge stakes in the PC market today uh-oh your time is valuable so let's get right into it let me clarify a few things right up front I'm not saying that PC gaming is going to die I've been gaming on PCs for over 20 years now I grew up playing games like Diablo 2 and World of Warcraft and I'm currently marathoning Baldur's Gate 3 and I'm really looking forward to Starfield coming out in a couple weeks as well my point is I know firsthand that the PC gaming industry is alive and well what I do think is dying is the PC market itself specifically stationary desktop computers I'm also not saying that PC enthusiasts and content creators won't need to keep building or buying these desktops but what I am saying is that fewer people overall will build or upgrade their machines each year and when they do they'll be buying older Parts at steeper discounts which means lower profit margins for companies like Nvidia AMD and Intel and that really matters because gpus and CPUs are usually two of the most expensive components for Consumer PCS and they're also core parts of huge business segments for these three companies for example Intel's client Computing group covers their PC Centric products and services including Intel Core CPUs Arc gpus chipsets for laptops and tablets and so on their quarterly Revenue in this segment is down by 12 percent year over year but Intel's client segment revenue from last year was already down by 24 percent from the year before that so this is really a 33 decline over two years amd's client segment focuses on consumer CPUs as well revenues for this business segment are down by 54 year over year and it's not even profitable for them right now with operating margins of around around negative seven percent and amd's gaming segment which focuses on gpus is also down by four percent year over year four percent may not sound too bad but their GPU sales are actually done by way more than that this number is being offset by strong sales of amd's semi-custom chips for video game consoles while their Graphics revenues continue to decline amd's client and gaming segments were their two biggest business segments up until this year so these are massive shifts happening under amd's feet and then of course there's Nvidia for decades gaming was nvidia's biggest business unit as well at its peak in early 2022 nvidia's gaming segment generated over 3.6 billion dollars in a single quarter that was largely due to the marked up sales of their GeForce gpus thanks to crypto miners buying up all the cards while there was increased demand from everyone since they were stuck inside during the lockdowns lower Supply higher demand and around an 80 market share of discrete gpus are what wet Nvidia their prices so high and capture so much revenue in a single quarter but then in quarter two of last year those gaming revenues fell by a whopping 44 percent that's quarter over quarter even after rebounding for two quarters nvidia's gaming revenues are still down almost 40 percent year over year it's easy to point to things like the pandemic the lockdowns crypto miners supply chain issues and the chip shortage as reasons for all these companies seeing lower sales for PCs CPUs and gpus and those factors definitely played an important part in the story but let me show you another very interesting point this is a graph of the number of shipments of discrete desktop graphics cards from Nvidia AMD and Intel over the last 10 years the actual peak in GPU shipments happened in quarter two of 2017 for NVIDIA and quarter one of 2018 for AMD both of these being well before the chip shortage the lockdowns and so on and even with all the pull forward growth that happened during the pandemic and all the extra demand from crypto miners neither Nvidia nor AMD came close to those Peak sales again and right now GPU shipments are down by over 12 percent quarter over a quarter and down by over 38 year over year but Nvidia stock has more than tripled in price so far this year can this growth streak really continue even though the GPU Market is in such a steep decline one way to find out is to see what big institutions are doing with Nvidia stock so if I go to nvidia's company page on MooMoo and then I click on shareholders I can see which institutions are holding and video stock right now and whether they've been buying or selling their shares looks like nvidia's CEO Jensen Wong has been increasing his Holdings that's a great sign and MooMoo will even plot the totals for you which takes out all the guesswork looks like there are still way more institutions buying Nvidia stock than selling it which means they think it has much more room to run features like these are why MooMoo has over 20 million Advanced investors around the world and right now MooMoo is giving away up to 6 teen free stocks each valued at up to two thousand dollars plus a fifty dollar cash reward and if you're from Canada you could win an Amazon gift card worth up to a hundred dollars keep your funds at the right level for at least 60 days and enjoy up to 16 lright the decline for Global demand of personal computers actually started all the way back in 2011.
if we look at the total unit shipments of PCS worldwide we can see that they peaked in 2011 at a little over 365 million units in 2019 that number was as low as 262 million which is over 100 million units lower that's a 28 decline over eight years and now the PC market is declining again after all of that pull forward growth from the pandemic and as I just showed you GPU shipments are also down by over 12 percent quarter over a quarter and over 38 year over year these are both stagger covering market-wide declines and if this trend really started way before the pandemic and the resulting supply chain issues then what's actually causing it in my opinion it really comes down to three big technology Trends and this is where it's worth paying attention to the science behind the stocks first more workloads and services are moving to the cloud which eliminates at least some of the need to have a powerful computer at home everything from Adobe Photoshop to file management systems like Google Drive and Dropbox to Microsoft Office is becoming completely cloud-based today in fact Microsoft wants to move its whole Windows operating system entirely to the cloud Windows 365 streams a full version of Windows to devices but it's currently limited to commercial customers future updates will include Windows 365 boom which will let Windows 11 devices log directly into a cloud PC instance instead of a local version of Windows there are two good reasons for Microsoft doing this first if Windows becomes a cloud service then Microsoft can enter great the windows AI copilot much more deeply into the operating system without having to worry about all the different configurations and specifications that at home PCS can have and second much cheaper and much less performant machines will be able to run the operating system since most of the processing will be handled on the server side which will let Microsoft compete with lower end devices like Google's Chromebook and that leads me right into my second point which is that a lot of computing has also gone Mobile today we can do almost everything from our phones from parts of our day jobs and our hobbies to Banking and investing and of course watching TV listening to music and playing video games trust me I get it if you're in your late 30s or older you probably don't want to hear anything about mobile games at all I'm actually the same way but as an investor you should know that Mobile gaming is already over 60 percent of the entire gaming Market by Revenue today and it's still growing faster than every other device segment for gaming put together likewise almost sixty percent of all web traffic around the world was on mobile devices last year and it's still trending upwards and that's not including future mobile platforms like augmented reality glasses virtual reality goggles and of course mixed reality headsets the third reason for this decline is actually what I think will be the biggest margin killer for desktop PCS and components and there's really nothing that any of these companies can do about it as CPUs and gpus keep getting better consumers are able to go longer and longer between upgrades these chips are getting so good that you can buy or build a computer and then literally ignore newer chips for years at a time and in fact this has been the norm for years already steam is the biggest digital storefront and distribution platform for computer games with around 120 million monthly active users every month they take a survey about what kinds of hardware and software steam users are running and they get hundreds of thousands of responses so these responses are statistically significant if we we look at the way to steam survey from July 2023 we can see that the most popular video card is actually nvidia's GTX 1650 a card that was released back in 2019 for around 200 we can also see that over 60 percent of Gamers still set their Graphics to 1080p even though that 4K Graphics have been available for close to a decade now the flip side of CPUs and gpus being so good right now is that new generations have very bad price to Performance ratios why would somebody want to spend fifteen hundred dollars or more on a GPU when they can get one that's almost just as good but one generation back for significantly cheaper especially when we're just coming out of two years of bad inflation and we might be heading into a consumer recession oh yeah and most Gamers still play games at 1080p alright hopefully I've proven to you that the market for new high-end gpus and honestly CPUs in PCS have some systemic issues that aren't tied to the pandemic but what does that actually mean for companies like Nvidia AMD and Intel well I think Nvidia will end up cannibalizing a pretty large portion of its gaming business to keep doubling down on AI chips for data centers and investing in Cloud Gaming Technologies like GeForce now they might even go as far as slowing down the production of their RTX 4000 series graphics cards to lower the supply and raise prices while ramping up the production of their Hopper AI chips instead after all the margins are much higher for data center chips than for Consumer gpus with some estimates suggesting close to 90 margins for nvidia's h100s no wonder AI is killing the PC market so what I think we should expect from nvidia's next earnings call is more crazy growth in their data center segment and probably their professional visualization segment which is the one that their Ada Lovelace workstations fall under at the same time I'd expect their gaming revenues to grow but slower and slower over time as GPU prices stabilize and Nvidia ends up shipping fewer of them each quarter until consumer Hardware becomes a much smaller portion of their overall revenues let's see how right I am when they report their earnings in a couple of days I think the bigger surprise to me is that AMD isn't rushing to fill the void that Nvidia is leaving behind AMD launched their rx7000 series XTX gpus for gaming PCs and then professional workstations this year but all four of these models retail for one thousand dollars or less today I don't think that's because AMD is still seen as a budget brand but because they know that the PC market is in Decline and the only way to move new products is by lowering their prices at the same time AMD is working on new CPUs to go toe-to-toe with Intel in the laptop Market these strix point apus will actually be hybrid processors which means they'll have eight cores focused on performance and another eight focused on efficiency similar to Intel's p-cores and e-cores in their hybrid architecture but AMD is also integrating a pretty solid 8 core GPU onto these processors based on their rdna three plus architecture will this integrated GPU be able to compete directly with nvidia's 4000 series gpus of course not but it will compete as a potential upgrade option for gamers and creators on a budget which according to the steam survey I just showed you is still most of them and we could see AMD bring this hybrid architecture with integrated Graphics to desktops in the future my point is that AMD isn't exactly rushing to claim the discrete GPU market for high-end PCS even though they're in the best position to do so that's a strong indicator that they think this Market isn't worth capturing and their resources are better spent on chips for servers mobile devices game consoles and other embedded systems exactly where AMD is seeing big Revenue growth year over year and we're seeing the same kinds of Trends with Intel Intel's Arc a Series Desktop gpus will cost anywhere from one hundred dollars for the a300 series chips that compete with nvidia's GTX 1000 series to around on 250 dollars for Intel's a500s which are supposed to compete with nvidia's RTX 3050s and then around 400 for Intel's a 700 series which compete with nvidia's RTX 3060s and on the CPU side of things Intel's meteor Lake processors will have integrated Graphics just like we saw with amd's chips the integrated graphics on Intel's chips are reportedly so good that oems are choosing them over lower end discrete graphic chips and laptops this holiday season since by removing these separate Graphics chips you could almost double A laptop's battery life so in short we probably won't see Intel fill the void that Nvidia is leaving in the GPU Market as well since they're choosing to focus on all these other markets instead what this means for PC Gamers is slower and more incremental improvements to discrete gpus over time and maybe even CPUs as well and what this means for investors is that we should be looking for growth in business to business segments focused on data centers or Edge device devices even if that means cannibalizing client segment revenues over the next few quarters and at the end of the day I actually think that's the right call since more workloads are moving to the cloud especially as new workloads come online for training large AI models and in the future we should expect AI workloads to move to the edge as well as new inference chips and applications make their way onto smartphones laptops VR goggles and even self-driving cars leaving Big beefy owned computers in a sort of No Man's Land for AI That's how I expect AI to end up killing the desktop PC market over time but there's one more hug watch research yo
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