저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오는 이 인터뷰에서 자산 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 하지 않았고, 미·중 갈등과 국내 양극화가 향후 경기침체 시 정책 효과를 떨어뜨릴 수 있다는 거시적 우려를 제기했다. 주제별 핵심 주장: - 앱 '프린시플스': 실패 대처법, 아이디어 메리토크라시 등 원칙을 공유하는 앱이며, 본인은 70세이고 1년 내 조용히 물러날 계획이라고 언급했다. - 성공의 정의: 현 단계에서 성공은 본인 없이도 타인이 성공하도록 돕는 것이라고 밝혔다. - 실리콘밸리 평가: 아이디어 메리토크라시와 개방적 사고가 잘 받아들여지는 곳이라고 평가했다. 미·중 관계: - 무역전쟁, 자본·통화전쟁, 기술전쟁, 지정학적 전쟁 네 가지 갈등을 우려했다. - 'war'보다 'negotiation'이라는 표현이 적절하며, 윈윈 해법을 원한다고 주장했다. 국내 정치·경제 리스크: - 부의 격차와 기회의 격차가 커지고 정치적 양극화가 심화되고 있다고 진단했다. - 1930년대 말 역사와 유사하다며, 경기침체 시 통화정책 효과가 제한될 수 있다고 경고했다. - 탄핵 조사가 시장에 미칠 영향에 대해서는 정치 시스템 효율성 훼손에 대한 우려를 표명했다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없으며, 장기적 리스크(양극화·갈등·침체 가능성)에 대한 경계 톤이다.
다듬은 글
crunch disrupt the annual conference from our sister publication TechCrunch is underway right now in San Francisco the three-day event is an opportunity for startups to pitch ideas in front of the world's top investors and entrepreneurs lots of good discussion often comes out of TechCrunch Disrupt and our own melody Hahm is there and got a chance to interview Ray Dalio Co chief investment officer at Bridgewater and she joins us now hi melody hey Dan yeah it was a really wide-ranging conversation Ray Dalio of course runs the largest hedge fund in the world by assets based here in Connecticut when you think about the overall landscape of markets right now it's so interesting because Ray Dalio basically teased the fact that he may not be operating in the markets for much longer especially because he's seven years old and he's trying to think about his own succession plans I have to say even though he's a finance guy he was actually probably the most popular person here in the TechCrunch auditorium's he did a book signing it was really hard to even get him to sit down for this interview I want you to take a look at our conversation I'm joined by Ray Dalio the founder Co CIO and co-chairman of Bridgewater associates thanks so much for joining us today that's a kick to be with you yeah so we're here at TechCrunch Disrupt and you are now the face of an app right principles and it's been getting a lot of heat and traction over the last couple of months what is the success story behind principles and why do you feel like it's been performing well to know how to fail well you know and realize it's the path to success to know that knowing how to deal with ones not knowing is more important than anything one knows to know how to have an idea meritocracy and to know how to have fun and go after your dreams and make that happen that's so it's a kick to pass that along so it's really interesting the app itself they you're giving people the opportunity to craft their own principles right and it's following yours it's almost like okay this can be your vision board as well what would you say is the most creative sorts of principles that you've seen others contribute to the platform well we're just starting to collect the principles so I but you know there's the themes that you see over and over again and they're true yep so I wouldn't make the generalization I can't dimension the ones that I would say the most creative but they're mostly how to get past that challenges the pains and all of that so I would say maybe those as you look at your principles personally what is the most challenging one for you to really hold true to or you feel as though you face the most obstacles in trying to make sure you're consistently meeting that principle why don't it's the most like the most valuable one is to meditate I would say it's not the most challenging but I want to do it the most because that gives me the equanimity creativity that really helps so much so I would say that would be one of the most important certainly you've rolled out some neutrals as well to really help entrepreneurs and leaders can you explain the new push here well I want to pass along all the tools that have been helpful because tools create habit they create a framework that allows all these principles to be carried through I want really an idea meritocracy that's the most important thing and so the tools allow that so I'm passing along first the dot collector so everybody's going to be available for you're able to use the dot collector and I think that'll be terrific it's our most loved and most impactful tool and what would you say is the success story what is your vision for principles as you look ahead to a year or two from now how would you define success well at every phase in anyone's life there's a difference in what is defines what one defines success for me at this stage my definition for success is to help people be successful without me in other words to pass along a notion well to watch Beauty happen I feel I'm 70 years old I don't want any more success myself I just want to help pass that along and if I can do that that'll be success for me and then I'll go quiet I'm going to go quiet in about a year year you know some core tenants of the concept of principles and a bridgewater are really radical transparency radical open-mindedness when you look at Silicon Valley where we are right now what would you say are the pros or some some of the startups and companies out here that are doing that well can you name a few leaders that come I'm not gonna it's all personal and I keep it private so I'm not going to name leaders but I will say that some of the most successful innovative companies and then some of the startups that are just getting going are open-minded and thinking about new and better ways of doing things so Silicon Valley I love it because they really resonate the idea meritocracy to know one's strengths and one's weaknesses to work in a community where there's meaningful work and meaningful relationships it resonates here so that receptivity is really big here and you know you personally have really taken to social media platforms like Twitter like LinkedIn to really be an author right in addition to your book and you're finding avenues to express yourself and engage with customers and people who are interested in your words would you say LinkedIn is the best portal I want to clarify what I'm doing I can fine I was sort of like hesitant I'm gonna go on social media and I don't know no and I'm not doing it for most of those reasons I'm doing it because I'm having quality exchanges with people you know every day we're exchanging thoughts on principles and we're having the back and forth and the people are really nice and they're very appreciative and I love communicating with them so you know I like that we're communicating in very honest ways but most importantly its quality like what are you facing and to realize that whatever you're facing there's a principle for it yeah to not view each of these individual things as individual things but part of that principle that back and forth exchange has been really well loved in the communication I want to briefly touch upon your latest LinkedIn post specifically our dressing the administration potentially curving some of the investments into China and the capital flows there would you say that is the optimal scenario is that the way that the US government should be going about relations with China no I wouldn't say that I'm you know I'm so I'm there are four types of Wars right there's a trade war there's that a capital and currency war there's a technology war and then there's a geopolitical war and I'm seriously concerned about the nature of those wars so it you know it has to be done this exchange of how will you accomplish things really should we shouldn't even using the term war we're using it too easily we should be using the term negotiation I think so you know the question is how much will this be a fight in which there's mutually hurting each other is this a win win or a lose lose however we can get to a win-win that's what I would like to see the most of it's the art of thoughtful disagreement and how do you create win wins that I would like to see the most of them so I'm I I would say more concerned about conflict than the way that we're having it and when you think about that win-win scenario what does that look like you know for it for the US and China won't see that sort of compromise happening I don't think it's just a us-china I think it's an American American thing in other words I think when we're dealing with conflict we're now saying can we go above it so that we don't make it a lose-lose so that we know how to get what we each want through exchanges like you tell me what you want and let me see if I can help you get it and let's do the same so that we build on win wins I think we're having the same challenges domestically there's a wealth gap and there's an opportunity gap and then there's a conflict between increasingly extremes and on a fight that can become a really dangerous fight and produce a lose-lose so I think the issue is to go above if we can go above it and we say how do we get the best collective benefit and on work on that that's that there are lots of ways we can do that but that is I think the most important thing because if you look about what if we can have there is enough okay there is enough of everything and there's an innovativeness and there's a capability but so often there's been these lose losses that can then be very damaging so I'm concerned about that so like the wealth gap like the opportunity gap the idea of coming together and working it together and understanding the art of thoughtful disagreement principles would go back to principles what are the principles that bind us together are we clear on those what are the principles that separate us so I think we have to think about how we do this in it together way before we really damage ourselves because it can get so extreme that it can be damaging and on that point when you think about unity within America of course there seems to be a lot of divide within the US political system when you think about the impeachment inquiry that Nancy Pelosi did start on President Trump do you feel like that will be a headwind for the markets as you think about the next couple of months I read history and I find the same things happen over and over again and what I see is that there is a political system that normally has an ability to debate things and get past that and I'm worrying that this is a war that in which and the damaging and the hurt of that war can be so great that it undermines the effectiveness of the system history has shown that if you look at the late 30s for example the polarity between the haves and the have-nots the wealth gap was analogous the opportunity gap was analogous and the ability to get past that so I'm more concerned about that I think there are three big forces that are at work that's the domestic economic gap and political gap which is becoming extreme and I worry about a downturn in which number to monetary policy won't be as effective in the next if we're at each other's throats now and then you have a downturn and it's going to be worse and if we and then we have the conflict in terms of the rising China's arising country with the United States as an established country and so to work oneself through that in the right ways with wisdom to understand the art of thoughtful disagreement and yet at the right aggregate rather than in everyone lose situation that's what yeah so that's what worries me hopefully we can chase it soon thank you that was Ray Dalio the founder of Bridgewater associates dan it was a really interesting conversation as you could glean and the art of thoughtful disagreement came up at least twice during that conversation if only our political system and when you think about global relations if that were actually a core tenant of discussions I think he did lay out some interesting headwinds ahead although he wasn't necessarily taking on a fearful approach but that's what happens when when you when you happen when you're sitting on a lot of assets I suppose yes that's a that's a good way to put it thanks so much melody that is melody Hahm of Yahoo Finance who is there in San Francisco for TechCrunch Disrupt all week so we want to encourage you the viewer to watch our coverage of disrupt all week here on Yahoo Finance com hey investors Zack Guzman here are you interested in learning more about the markets and getting the latest financial news well then click right here to subscribe to our Yahoo Finance youtube channel get the latest up-to-the-minute market analysis big interviews in the world of finance and information on how to manage your money every day wherever you are
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