저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
현재 미국 증시는 Fang·매그니피센트7 중심으로 과열되어 있고, 개인·기관 현금비중이 사상 최저 수준이다. 반면 워런 버핏은 현금비중을 사상 최고로 늘리고 있다. 글로벌 경기는 2018~2019년 수준을 회복하지 못했으며 통화팽창으로 '두 갈래 경제'가 나타나 미국인 70% 이상이 월급에 의존해 생활한다. 금 강세는 통화 불안정의 신호이며, 공식 인플레이션 통계는 체감 물가를 과소평가한다. 고PER·인기주는 장기적으로 시장을 하회하는 경향이 있다는 통계를 인용했다.
다듬은 글
and it creates these bubbles here and a bubble there and lately it's been a bubble everywhere this is a unique situation well this is obviously a very complex question because as you know an economy consists of different sectors and in the global economy we have different countries at different stages of Economic Development and then we had this huge financial bubble in the world hold the financial system and uh some markets are very high I statistically seen the US is very highly valued at the present time in particular the popular stocks the Fang stocks uh The Magnificent Seven and of us and we have other markets that are relatively depressed and some markets are actually also in abs abute terms depressed and I'm bringing this up because people when you meet them at parties and that whatever events they always say yeah I want to buy low and sell high but actually throughout Financial history people have done exactly the opposite they buy high and sell low I mean this is a remarkable thing I mean I'm bringing this up because as you know at the present time individuals and institutions in America have piled into US stocks and uh the cash positions of both individuals and of financial institutions as a percentage of total assets is very low is at a record low so the public and the financial institutions are euphoric about this Market especially after Trump got elected but at the same time you have say a proven investor that has done well over half a century who is increasing his cash position so you have the masses of people who buy things they have actually no clue about they say yes Nidia is good with exactly what Nidia does they don't know these are the same people that vote Cisco in 1999 2000 and one man who essentially is a patient investor is's not a genius he says himself and Charlie Mong who passed away recently they both argued their strength is their patience and also long-term orientation and that they don't have to deliver every quarter results so this man War buffed as a percentage of total assets is at the record high it gives you something to think about I mean philosophically uh the public buying like crazy and one man who is a proven investor is uh maintaining a high cash position and concerning the economy all I can tell is that we had a setback I'd call it actually an AR official setback brought about by Co but as we know now and as some people knew right from the start this Co is an organized business deal the purpose of which eludes me somewhat but anyway the economy collapsed and from the collapsed low say in May June 2020 we had a recovery in the global economy but most sectors of the global economy are still below the level in 2019 2018 so we had a recovery but it's not as strong as one would have expected it to be and some countries are are actually hardly recovering and some sectors are actually way down from the peak level in 2019 partly because Society has changed so the global economy in my view is is actually weak whether it will tilt into a serious re recession or not I wouldn't know but one thing I know we're dealing with a two tiered economy the money printing by the FED has not helped the typical household not at all the typical household is faced and this is not only in the US is in Europe the same and in other countries the same is faced with cost of living increases that exceed his wage gains and as a result of that over 70% of people in the US live paycheck to paycheck paycheck to paycheck means essentially you have to wait for your check at the end of the month to pay your bills that is the definition of living paycheck to paycheck in my view it's a modern form of slavery because the people who live on paychecks they cannot express their own opinions they have to do what they're told by the system or by the companies they work for and so for and the rich people they benefited from money Printing and this is the the crazy thing about monetary inflation it distorts everything uh the price prices are very difficult to determine uh you can say this is expensive compared to that and so was but it's very difficult to say this is absolutely expensive or absolutely cheap because the monetary inflation touches different sectors of the economy at different times and it creates these bubbles here and a bubble there and lately it's been a bubble everywhere this is a unique situation the FED in my opinion the Central Bank in am they're probably right to cut interest rates I'm not saying they right absolutely but probably right when they look at the labor market and when they look at the real economy of poor people of the typical household in America but if I gave someone the financial picture and said Bitcoins is at an alltime high gold is near a high stocks are at an alltime high and that the inflation is such and such and uh I look at inflation from a different perspective as the Bureau of Labor Statistics the ownership of gold is a necessity for anyone who wants to keep liquidity uh and its purchasing power because paper money loses the purchasing power but not gold and my view is that as long as we have Central Banking in the world and some academics kind of telling you the inflation is 2% or so when their wives when they go shopping they know that it's more than that the BLS had health care cost down % over the last three years I mean it's a mindboggling nonsense but this is what this the publish and as IA said gold is actually reflecting precisely what is happening now in the world in the sense that the liquidity is so huge that it drives up some crazy assets like cryptocurrencies and I'm not saying that gold is a crazy asset but if there was monetary stability gold wouldn't be in a bull market the gold price is telling you there is monetary instability and that this instability will lead like Ira suggested to a recession at some point most people are already in recession but the government can show that GDP is going up because the government is spending money through the deficits and my view is that we are in a period of turmoil and that the resource oriented stocks say you take oil stocks as that the whole oil sector as a percent of the S&P it's at the Historical low or close to a historical low whereas tech stocks are up here in the sky and I've just seen I mean John hosman uh he's not the most bullish person but statistically he's well informed and he published statistic showing how the most expensive stocks and the most popular stocks perform in the long run and in the long run they don't perform better than the market so it means that when they're grossly overpriced like the case is now they will underperform for a while and I thought this is very interesting that the Public's money flows into most overvalued type of or expensive shares and statistically we can measure the PE the price to sales The Price to Book and so the US market is at the historic high value valuation here's the takeaway of Mark Faber's Market perspective Faber paints a complex picture of the current Global Financial landscape highlighting a stark disconnect between market valuations and economic reality he points to a particularly concerning Trend in the US markets where both retail and institutional investors have pushed cash positions to record lows while piling into highly valued stocks especially the Magnificent 7 this Behavior stands in sharp contrast to veteran investors like Warren Buffett who has maintained record high cash positions the global economy in Faber's view remains fundamentally weak despite recovering from the covid-19 setback most sectors still haven't returned to their 2018 to 2019 levels he describes a troubling two-tiered economy where Federal Reserve money printing has widened the wealth Gap over 70% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck while wealthy individuals have benefited from asset and inflation this monetary policy has created what he calls a unique situation of bubbles everywhere most notably Faber sees Gold's bull market as a warning sign of monetary instability he argues that in a stable monetary system gold wouldn't be rallying he's particularly critical of official inflation statistics suggesting they significantly understate real cost increases looking at Market sectors he notes that while technology stocks are up in the sky traditionally stable sectors like oil are at historic lows relative to the S&P 500 historical data suggests that such extremely overvalued popular stocks typically underperform over the long run in essence Faber describes a market driven by Euphoria rather than fundamentals with warning signs that Echo past bubble periods while presenting unique characteristics of its own
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