Peter Schiff: Trump's Economic Plan Will CRASH the Dollar | Inflation Crisis 2024 Warning 🚨

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트럼프 1기에도 재정긴축 공약과 달리 정부지출·적자·국가부채가 늘었다고 주장. 현재 경제는 2016년보다 악화됐고, 감세·관세·대규모 추방 정책은 인플레이션을 키울 것. 연준은 결국 양적완화로 돌아갈 수밖에 없고, 금리 인상은 은행 부실을 드러낼 것. 달러 상승·금 하락·비트코인 급등은 시장의 오판이라고 봄. 근본 해법은 지출 감축과 긴축이며 정부 지출 삭감은 실현되기 어렵다는 입장.

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01. we've been kicking the can down the road for a couple of decades now going from Bubble to bubble and that includes when Trump was president the first time I remember when I voted for Trump I was hoping that maybe he would actually be able to cut government and the fact that he wasn't a politician he would not behave like one I was wrong on that but he ran on a platform of cutting government reducing government spending he had something called his Penny Plan he was going to cut every year he was President he was going to cut spending by penny one penny out of every dollar which wasn't even enough but of course he didn't do that he ended up increasing spending by 4 cents on the dollar for the first three years that's you know not counting Co if you count Co it was something like 16 cents a year because spending blew up so much in 2020 but even before we got to covid government spending was going up under Trump the deficits was he talked about paying down paying off the national debt as a candidate he ran up a lot of debt the debt went up 50% that the budget deficits went up 50% in his first years before they you know went through the roof during Co so he did end up setting the record which Biden just broke for the most amount of debt added in one presidential term so he expanded government in fact even when the Republicans had both houses of Congress they increased welfare spending in addition to Warfare spending you know he added a department you know he added the space force he didn't eliminate a single agency or Department I think that now we're in much worse shape the economy is far worse than it was in 2016 that that's why he won by a wider margin and the reason he won the first time and the reason I predicted he was going to win the first time and I predicted again is that I knew the economy was much worse than the media was portraying and the Federal Reserve and Wall Street and the same thing is true now we have a horrible economy beneath the surface and Trump just showing up is not going to fix these problems and neither will simply cutting taxes the way he has advocated because most of the taxes are not really growth oriented they're consumption oriented you're cutting taxes on overtime on tips on Social Security benefits so all this money is just going to be spent and since we already have record trade deficits the trade deficit we had last month merchandise trade deficit was the worst in history with the exception of one month right after we did the co reopening but we've never been more dependent on Imports than we are right now and if we just give people a bunch of taxes they're going to spend more money on Imports now yes the Imports will get more expensive because Trump is going to put tariffs on those Imports but we're still going to import them because we don't have the ability to produce the stuff ourselves we're just going to have to import more and pay higher prices with the tariffs but the other problem is the tax cuts are going to blow a big hole in it already you know more than2 trillion dollar a year deficit when Trump came to office in 2016 the annual deficit spending was about 650 billion officially now it's well over 2 trillion a year officially and when Trump came to office the first time the FED funds rate was a half a percent now it's 42% and the yield on the 10e was 2 and 1/2 now it's you know getting close to 4 and A2 but rates are moving up a lot higher so we're going to have much higher interest rates with much bigger debt and Trump is talking about Mass deportations which you know I'm all for having a strict border but we also have to be cognizant of the fact that most of the jobs created under Biden were for illegals that's kind of where they came from if we kick them out who's going to do that work and what are we going to have to pay Americans to come off a welfare and take those jobs yeah sure there are some people who are on welfare that will kick out and there's some criminals and that'll be good but I think overall we're going to actually do more harm because we're going to deplete our labor Supply and that's going to further you know drive up the cost of production in the United States so there's a lot of stuff that's going to happen and remember the underlying problem with the country is that we spend and borrow too much and consume too much and inflation which wasn't as big a problem when Trump won in 2016 is a huge problem now because all the chickens have come home to roost all the QE one two three all that covid now we're dealing with it that's why Trump got elected because inflation was really bad that was harming people but it's going to get worse because his policies are all highly inflationary and there's going to be a lot of pressure on the FED to monetize these exploding deficit so I think the markets have got it wrong you know to think the Dollar's going up Gold's going down Bitcoin is surging because they think he's they're going to have a Bitcoin Reserve they're going to make Bitcoin profits taxfree I mean I certainly hope they don't do something that stupid but if they do do that that's also highly inflationary because where do they think the money is going to come from to buy Bitcoin they got to print it you know so it's just more government spending except they're spending it on nothing they're spending it to make people who own Bitcoin richer at the expense of people who don't the real tax that the government imposes on society is what it spends and so that's spending so that's taxation so right now the US government spends about $7 trillion a year so that's the tax on the economy now what Trump ran on was cutting income taxes okay but if you're not going to cut spending you haven't cut taxes so what Trump really wants to do is replace the income tax partially with tariffs but he's pretended that Americans don't pay the tariffs that the Chinese do or the Russians which is not true the tariffs are on Americans not on anybody else but the tariffs aren't big enough to offset all the tax cuts that he's promised so many people to get elected and so we end up paying for government with more inflation that's what he doesn't want to say it in fact when all the Republicans including Trump blame Biden for all this inflation they bear a lot of the responsibility Trump pointed out and the Republicans that you're getting inflation because of all the deficit spending under Biden well we had big deficit spending under Trump why doesn't that count the thing is that the deficit spending and the money printing when Trump was President we didn't see the effects on prices until Biden was president and so what we've really had over these last few years is the Trump inflation way do we catch up to the Biden inflation that's still coming because there's a lag here between printing all that money let's talk about that it has on prices I've always put more blame on the FED for enabling the policy and now not only does the FED enable the policy but pal refuses to criticize the PO policy I mean pal is hanging you know behind this supposed Independence of the FED to say that we can't even speak critically of the government that's not what an independent fed is independent fed doesn't mean that you don't criticize the government and you don't comment on fiscal policy an independent fed means that you are free to criticize the government and to comment on their fiscal policy when you think it's bad that's why the central Banker supposed to be independent but to say oh we're independent so we have to keep our mouth shut we can't talk about any mistakes that we believe the government is making we can't comment on the deficits or that is sheer nonsense and if you go back to Paul vuler who everybody agrees was a good fed chairman he was very critical of the government he didn't have any of this BS that he couldn't comment on fiscal policy he commented on it all the time you got to remember that the inflation is the expansion of the money supply so rather than looking at the CPI under Trump you got to look at the money supply under Trump and see what was going on there because price increases are the lagged effect of that inflation and also inflation can prevent prices from falling you know falling prices are a good thing right it makes things less expensive everybody wins but inflation could prevent prices from falling that doesn't mean it's not doing harm it's making things cost more than they otherwise would have but we were going to get a lot higher inflation even if we didn't have the pandemic based on the policies not only of trump but on the policies of Obama who preceded Trump the Fed was doing qe1 QE2 qe3 and they didn't even start raising interest rates really until after Trump was elected so you know by the time he got into office there had been two hikes but I think both of them were after the election and so up until time really you know bom left rates were still at zero and of course they quickly returned to zero later in his presidency once Co hit but I think the reason that you're not going to see the low rates of CPI that we saw during his first term is all the pent up inflation is now surfacing right all the years of money Printing and money printing is now showing up you know in consumer prices and I think that is going to accelerate especially when the FED goes back to quantitative easing which I believe they will because I think that the only way that they can stop long-term rates from rising is to go back to quantitative easing right now they're still doing quantitative tightening they've tapered it a bit but you know ever since the FED cut interest rates now they've cut interest rates 75 basis points long-term rates are up almost that much and they're going to keep Rising you know especially if people expect this you know stronger economy under Trump well if we have a Even If the Fed is able to reduce the shortterm rates to 4% there's no reason that a 10e shouldn't be 6% but the problem is the economy can't handle those higher rates the mortgage Market everything would Buckle if the treasury got up to 6% and I think a lot more Banks would fail because the banking system is very insolvent right now thanks to all the low yielding debt that they owned that they accumulated when rates were at zero you know the FED averted another financial crisis when they stopped hiking rates last time and they bailed out like Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank or a few banks that failed a lot more would have failed had the FED not stepped up but the whole system is insolvent so I think the FED is going to be forced to go back to quantitative easy because the rate cuts are not going to be enough but the FED is going to be going back to quantitative easing as inflation is picking up you know that's why at the last press conference a reporter asked pal hey what's your plan for stagflation and the answer was to laugh it off and say well our plan is to hope we don't have it they know there is no plan because there's nothing they can do but that's exactly where we're headed I think we're already there they fed just doesn't want to admit it it's just going to get worse and it's not going to go away under Trump we need some serious structural reforms in the economy and the only way we can get them is if we stop spending and borrowing you know the whole time the Fed was supposedly fighting inflation with tight money money continued to be loose because debt went to all-time record highs government debt all-time record highs household debt credit card debt record highs trade deficit record highs budget deficit record highs everybody is borrowing and spending despite the rate hikes which proves that the FED stopped too early they never raised rates high enough to do the job they never actually got into restrictive territory in order to restructure the economy in a way to have sound economic growth we need much higher interest rates we need a lot more savings we can't have record low savings people have to stop buying stuff on credit but Trump wants to add more air to the bubble he wants us to get tax cuts and keep spending and so that can't solve the problem to solve the problem require the opposite of what he campaigned on we need some austerity we need to tighten our belts we need to concentrate on cutting government spending and not just waste Fraud and Abuse everybody is in favor of cutting waste Fraud and Abuse the problem is you can never identify too much of it because there's a constituency behind all that waste Fraud and Abuse that doesn't want it to end so you can never really make much Headway even Ronald Reagan couldn't get spending cut he campaigned on we're going to eliminate the department of energy we're going to eliminate the Department of Education well they're still here so people get all excited because oh of all these promises it doesn't happen Congress doesn't deliver when I ran for Senate I said look I'm going to slash spending and one of the things I said wanted to do is I wanted to lead the filibuster in the Senate to block raising the debt ceiling I didn't want any more debt and I wanted to use that to force the government to cut spending but they didn't do it you know I used to support this coalition to cut government spending I think they're still around but nobody cares governments by definition are never going to be efficient in order to be efficient you need free market forces so Elon Musk bought Twitter it was his company and he said okay I'm going to cut costs I'm going to fire people because it was his money that at stake right so when you have a private Enterprise that is Guided by profit and loss and then you have competitive market forces you have efficiency because the inefficient companies are driven out of business by the efficient companies and because the people that own businesses don't want to lose their money so they try to be efficient governments are not subjected to those forces right when you're in Congress none of it is your money right it's all taxpayer money and your motivation is actually spend as much of it as possible because that's the source of your power right and there's no competition government isn't under a competitive threat because you got to buy government services whether you like it or not they take taxes whether you want to pay it or not so you don't have Market forces it's actually the opposite governments are incentivized to spend as much as possible because you know you look at these governments their budgets if they don't spend everything their budget gets cut so a lot of times at the end of the year any money they haven't spent they just rush out and spend it cuz they want to make sure they get their share of the pie in the following year so if Elon Musk gets in there he's going to find it's very very difficult to actually cut but if you look at the stuff that's off the table that's you know 80% of the government that they're not even going to touch right which is National Defense which they still want to increase interest on the debt which is on autopilot going up at a rapid Pace right 1.1 trillion in another year and a half it'll be 2 trillion a year in interest on the debt right they can't stop that that's just going way up they won't even be able to cut enough in discretionary spending to offset the increase in the cost of the national debt all by itself but then you got Social Security and Medicare that are skyrocketing in cost those are off the table in fact so is Obamacare Medicare he didn't talk about any cuts to health care so that's most of the budget and then what's left you know if you look back at the history of government you know I'm 61 years old and I remember so many attempts usually led by Republicans to cut spending and it never happens I mean sometimes they pass these bills that call for spending cuts three four years 5 years in the future that never materialize because before we get there they get rid of it Trump won the house and the senate in 2016 he had everything for those first two years and they increased government spending they didn't cut government spending they did cut taxes I have no doubt in my mind that they're going to cut taxes again and the tax cuts we're going to get this time are going to be much bigger than the ones that we got last time because he's going to extend all the original tax cuts right so we get that tax cut all over again cuz right now if you look at the projections that the government has for future deficits they assumed that the tax cuts don't get extended right so that's part of the budget so the minute they extend them right you blow out the cbo's estimates but they want to bring back the salt deduction that they took out the first time and they want to make corporate rates even lower so it's going to be a bigger tax cut when we're already more broke the national debt when he comes in is going to be well over 36 trillion maybe 37 trillion when he came in the first time it was still under 20 trillion not that that was small but America is more broke now right yet we want to let the taxpayer off the hook with even more tax cuts when they should be having tax hikes unless we're going to you know slash spending which we're not going to do but in addition to all those he never talked on the campaign Trail the first time about exempting social security from taxes that's a huge increase in Social Security benefits he never talked about no tax on tips or no tax on overtime or no tax for Teacher no tax for firefighters or policemen or veterans I mean you're talking about an enormous amount of money yes he's promising tariffs but we still have the old tariffs you know the tariffs he put in initially most of them were still there Biden never got rid of them now those tariffs didn't turn the economy around before they didn't even turn our trade deficit around we have record trade deficits with those tariffs the trade deficits didn't go down we didn't bring manufactur ing home we've been in a manufacturing recession for years and so the tariffs aren't going to change that they may even worsen that there's a lot of problems that everybody is overlooking with all the Euphoria particularly Market Euphoria because again the markets get way ahead of itself because you know the markets will do anything of people are betting on it right money is flooding in but they're betting on something that's not going to happen Peter Schiff argues that Trump's first term didn't deliver on his promises of fiscal conservatism and government reduction despite campaigning on cutting spending and debt Trump's presidency saw increased government spending even before covid expanded deficits and grew the national debt by 50% Schiff contends that the current economic situation is more precarious than in 2016 with higher interest rates larger deficits and significant inflation concerns looking forward he warns that Trump's proposed policies including extensive tax cuts tariffs and mass deportations could worsen inflation and economic stability he argues that the fundamental problem is that America spends and borrows too much and Trump's proposed Solutions don't address this core issue shiff suggests that what's really needed is austerity and structural reforms including higher interest rates and increased savings rather than more stimulus in spending the analysis concludes by expressing skepticism about the possibility of meaningful government spending cuts noting that historical attempts at reduction have consistently failed due to the inherent inefficiencies of government and the political difficulties of cutting established programs