저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
빌 애크먼의 포트폴리오 내 Lowe's(LOW)와 Hilton(HLT) 중 어느 쪽이 더 나은 매수 대상인지 비교한 영상이다. 결론은 Hilton 선호다. 매출: Lowe's는 2019년 이후 팬데믹 기간 홈 임프루브먼트 수요로 꾸준히 성장했다. Hilton은 팬데믹 초기 급감 후 최근 분기 매출 24.4억 달러로 팬데믹 이전 고점에 근접했으나, 호텔·리조트 지출은 2019년 1.5조 달러 대비 2022년 약 1.1조 달러로 여전히 약 4,000억 달러 부족하다고 주장. 영업이익률(최근 12개월): Lowe's 10.47%, Hilton 23.87%. Hilton은 객실 요금 인상으로 마진이 높아졌다고 설명. 영업현금흐름/매출(최근 12개월): Lowe's 8.85%, Hilton 19.16%. 2019년 수준에서도 Hilton이 Lowe's보다 우위였다고 함. 리스크: 경기침체 시 여행은 가정 리모델링보다 재량적 지출이라 Hilton의 마진과 현금흐름이 Lowe's보다 더 크게 악화될 수 있다고 인정. 밸류에이션: 선행 PER은 Hilton 25배, Lowe's 14.49배로 Hilton이 더 비싸다. 진행자는 그럼에도 Hilton을 선택하겠다고 함. 전망: 여행 지출 회복은 이제 시작 단계이며 2023년과 2024년에도 회복이 이어질 것이라고 봄. 팬데믹 중 집에 갇혀 있던 기간이 여행에 대한 소비자 관심을 높였고, 이 효과가 사라지는 데 몇 년이 걸릴 것이라고 주장. 결론: 두 종목 중 Hilton이 현재 더 나은 매수 대상이라는 견해.
다듬은 글
best Bill Ackman stock to buy? Lowe's or Hilton? Bill Ackman of Pershing Capital Management only owns six stocks in his portfolio. Lowe's is the largest with a 23% share , followed by Hilton with a 14.4% share . So, in this video, I will explain which of these two stocks is the best to buy. I am going to compare these two stocks based on four different factors .
Okay, let 's get started without further ado. Let's start with income first . Looking at revenue over the past few years , Loess has seen very good growth since 2019 . As people spent more time at home during the pandemic, they turned to home improvement projects , which gave the company a good boost.
As for Hilton Worldwide Holdings , their revenue fell at the beginning of the pandemic because people were reluctant to travel and board crowded flights. Therefore, travel has almost stopped. Are n't these two companies different from each other? While the home improvement sector has boomed during the pandemic , the travel sector has collapsed.
Now that economies are reopening, travel spending is rebounding significantly . However, the home improvement sector is not collapsing, nor is spending on it decreasing. But it is slowing down . Yes, it's slowing down, but it hasn't fallen as badly as the travel sector fell during the pandemic . So now you can notice in the case of Hilton.
Revenue rose to $2.44 billion in the most recent quarter , almost reaching its pre-pandemic peak. But the travel sector has not yet fully recovered. It still has a lot to grow . Before the pandemic, that is, in 2019, people spent $1.5 trillion on hotels and resorts . That number is estimated to be $1.1 trillion in 2022 .
So even though there was some recovery in 2022 , it was still $400 billion below the 2019 level . Therefore, there is still a lot of potential for this travel sector to recover, and Hilton Worldwide stands to benefit from this trend . Next, let's look at the operating profit margin for the last 12 months.
And Lowe's has performed very well in increasing its operating margin , especially during the pandemic. But while achieving a margin of 10.47% over the past 12 months is good , Hilton is far ahead of that. In the last 12 months it has doubled that rate with a margin of 23.87% . Although its revenue is at the same level as in 2019 , its operating profit margins are very high due to the very high average room rents .
Hilton has been able to raise prices and Hilton is not the only travel company that has raised prices, they are charging more per room so that they can get more revenue from each room and each hotel , thereby increasing overall profit margins . The next metric I wanted to look at was cash flow from operations to sales over the past 12 months .
And even on this metric , Hilton is showing its lead with a 19.16% margin compared to Lowe's 8.85% . And even before the pandemic, if we look at 2019 levels, you know, Hilton was in better shape than Loews. So, even at normal rates, its margins are higher than Lowe's . However during recessions and significant downturns , you can expect Hilton's margins and cash flow margins to decline more than Lowes's because Hilton's business is more discretionary than Lowes'.
So during a recession, people cut back on travel more than they do on home improvements , because part of the home improvement spending is more necessary than travel. Yes, right? For some home improvement projects you may have no other choice. You have to fix it . You can't say, "Okay, I'll postpone it ." Finally, I want to look at their valuations to determine which of these is the best stock to buy .
Looking at the forward price to earnings ratio , Hilton Worldwide is trading at a forward PE of 25 , while Lowes is trading at a forward PE of 14.49 . So even though Hilton is doing better than Lowes in terms of operating margins and cash flow from operations , that is reflected in its value . It is more expensive.
However, I would rather pay more and buy Hilton Worldwide instead of Lowes right now. I would like to thank , I prefer the Hilton . So, I would say that Hilton Worldwide is the better stock to buy out of the two right now. If you're looking for the best Bill Ackman stock to buy , I think the recovery in travel spending is just beginning .
I think 2023 will be another recovery year and 2024 will also be another recovery year . I don't think it will end in 2023 . I think that having been stuck at home for almost two years has increased consumer interest in travel . I think it will take a few more years for this to completely disappear from people's minds .
Therefore, I believe that Hilton Worldwide is the right choice to invest in these two companies . Okay, that's all I wanted to say for this video . Thank you very much for watching the video. I am very happy that you are watching my videos . If you like this video , I'm giving links to some more videos at the end , which I think you'll like too . So, please click on them, and we'll meet you there.
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