Jeremy Siegel said 75/25 is the new 60/40 !

요약 보기

결론: 채권금리가 낮다고 주식 비중을 무작정 늘리는 것은 위험하며, 지출·투자 일기로 인플레이션을 점검하고 유동성을 확보하라는 취지의 영상. [Jeremy Siegel의 75/25 조언] 올해 초 Jeremy Siegel은 채권금리가 낮으니 자산의 25%만 채권에, 75%는 주식에 배분하라고 했다. 발언자는 이 조언이 70세, 65세 투자자에게 적절한지 의문을 제기했다. 고평가 상태에서 주식 비중을 늘리면 시장 하락 시 인출 부담이 생길 수 있다고 지적했다. [금리 관련 견해] 금리는 더 내려갈 수도, 올라갈 수도 있으니 금리 자체에 과도하게 신경 쓸 필요는 없다고 봤다. 금리보다 실제 체감 인플레이션을 파악하는 것이 더 유용하다고 강조했다. [지출·투자 일기 권고] 지출 일기를 상세히 써서 채소·과일 등 품목별 물가 흐름을 파악하라고 권했다. 과일과 채소의 인플레이션은 서로 다르므로 개인별 실질 인플레이션율을 계산해야 한다고 했다. 투자 일기도 함께 작성해 포트폴리오 변화를 추적하라고 했다. [유동성·자산배분] 주식은 하락할 수 있으므로 단기 채권·유동성 자산을 확보해 자산군 간 이동이 가능하도록 하라고 했다. 예: 3년 이상 된 단기 소득형 펀드를 해지해 주식형·미국 펀드 등으로 옮기는 방식 언급. 나이에 따라 주식 비중 확대 전략이 30세에는 맞지만 70세에는 부적절할 수 있다고 했다. [시장 진단] 현재는 시작 시점에 따라 수익률이 크게 갈리는 '잔인한 일방향' 시장으로 묘사했다. FANG 등 일부 대형주만 수익을 내고 있어 다른 기업도 좋은 투자처라는 뜻은 아니라고 선을 그었다. 리라이언스가 디지털 사업으로 수익을 내는 사례를 언급했으나, 이를 일반화하지 말라고 경고했다. [실행 조언] 직접투자 판단이 어렵다면 성과가 양호한 뮤추얼펀드를 5~6개, 카테고리를 나눠 분산 투자하라고 권했다. [리스크] 과도한 주식 비중 확대, 고평가 구간 진입, 인출 시점 시장 악화를 주요 위험으로 제시했다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. early part of this year jeremy siegel uh made a remark that 75 25 is the new 6040. i'm sure if you're an advisor or a series and investor you understand what i mean he said since bond yields are so low you should relocate only 25 percent of your money to bond deals and 75 percent should be assigned to equity investments i honestly do not know how good this investment advice is for the 70 year old man or the 65 year old man can he afford to put more money into equity at these stretched valuations and risk the factor that he will have to draw down when the market is worse than where it is today i seriously don't know but i also don't think that you should worry too much about interest rates being low it could get lower and then it could get higher right so don't worry about interest rates start writing down your expenses knowing the inflation impacting you is far more useful than worrying about the number which nirmala sitharaman gives and saying ah it can't be so low i go to the market every day i know what it is but you're still bluffing to be able to accurately predict what is happening to your portfolio step one is to maintain an expense diary and an investment diary remember i've said and an investment diary your expense diary should write down all detailed expenses right and the fact that the greater the detail that you write down the greater the detail which will be uh how you can use it for example certain vegetables could be cheaper in particular part of the year and some other vehicle other vegetables could be cheaper in different parts when you if you do detailing of your expenses you will even be able to find that trend but if you know that you're too lazy to do it i am i wouldn't do it then don't bother but just break it into vegetables and fruits so that you know the vegetable inflation and fruit inflation are two completely different animals right i've always found that fruit to be more expensive because i pay more at the fruit counter than i pay at the vegetable counter and fruit i may be the only person eating because my wife buys fruit separately right so the fruit budget may be higher than the vegetable budget when you write down all these expenses you know what is the inflation rate applicable to you and see what is happening just keeping on putting more money into equity hoping that equity will do well is a very good strategy for the 30 year old but it may not be very good strategy for the 70 year old so be careful about that don't keep on increasing your equity portfolio size just because there is somebody saying interest rates are low it does not mean anything if interested start going up remember your equity markets will come down so you need to be in liquid funds so that you can move from one asset class to other so if you are if you put say 30 40 lakhs in a short-term income fund and it's it's more than three years old remember it's available to you so you may want to remove from there and put it into some equity fund some u.s fund whatever so get your asset allocation right don't worry too much about interest rates you cannot be worried about that also remember the return that you get in equity depends on your starting point to a great extent this is not a great market to be starting to invest without understanding what is happening it's a very cruel one-way kind of a market the fang is making money yes reliance is uh perhaps piggy banking on the digital thing and making money it does not mean other companies will make money it does not mean other companies are a good buy or a bad buy you have to apply your mind if you do not know how to apply your mind to direct equities there is always mutual funds on which you can fall back on make sure that the funds are performing reasonably well spread it across five six funds across categories and that's it that's what you need to do thank you