저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
영상은 Ken Fisher의 투자 철학을 소개한다. 가치·성장 혼합 접근, 자유시장 신뢰, 행동재무학 강조. PSR(주가매출비율)을 1980년대 대중화했으며 이익보다 매출이 조작이 어렵다고 본다. 역발상 투자와 독립적 사고를 중시하고, 탑다운으로 국가·산업을 고른 뒤 바텀업으로 종목을 선택한다. 장기 보유를 강조하며 미국 경제에 낙관적이다. 특정 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
Welcome to Subramani. Please subscribe. Please hit the bell icon. Today I'm going to talk about uh great investment philosopher and he blended value and growth oriented roots uh of roots of investing, value discipline, contrarian thinking, strong emphasis on behavioral finance. From this you should be able to guess that he is of a more modern era than uh than some of the others that I've spoken about and I can also tell you that he still he's alive and doing well.
Core philosophy, of course, is uh fundamentally believes in capitalism and free markets, talks a lot about that. Uh where supply and demand alone should determine any price, right? So, securities prices and markets are obviously related very efficiently as discounting widely uh uh I mean, discounting all the information that is available in the market.
[snorts] To outperform, investors must uh uncover non-public information or interpret widely known data in a different and a novel way. This is his philosophy of investing. He's deeply skeptical of conventional wisdom and uh crowd behavior. He does not believe so much. He believes a lot in uh behavioral finance as to how investors, including institutional investors, will behave.
He has some amazing books. I have them somewhere here, but uh I'm not naming them. That makes life easier for you. So, he basically has some questions to ask like uh what do you believe is actually false? Uh what can you understand what others cannot, right? And what is your brain doing to blindside you now?
What is it hiding from you? These are very important questions to ask and he's got many such style and basically he is the pioneer of price-to-sales ratio because he feels that uh the profits can be manipulated, right? Can be increased, can be lowered depending on what the management wants to do, but uh very unlikely that they will uh they can manipulate sales.
Of course, they can manipulate sales for a year or two, but doing it consistently over a long period of time is difficult. So, in the 1980s itself he popularized the price-to-sales ratio, which is uh did a which is spoken about in his uh book uh and as most uh and he thought that uh PSR is more stable than uh PE ratio or price-to-dividend ratio, right?
So, he believed that if you pick up this ratio uh combined with strong sales growth, good profit growth, good market reach, good moats, um then it becomes possible to use it. Though, of course, he noted later on that too many people have copied it and it uh it may not any longer work, but foundationally this is what he did.
Then uh he he's also a contrarian investor. He advocates buying when others are not uh so well willing to buy. Like let's say others are fearful of not owning that industry, not owning that country, not owning that company, whatever. He emphasizes thinking independently rather than simply doing the opposite to the crowd.
It is very easy to say, "Oh, everybody's buying, I'll sell." But you should know what to buy and what to sell. So, his style to his focus on behavioral finance, understanding why investors make irrational choices. So, fairly obvious he's not for indexing. He's uh very clearly a fund manager who believes in top-down uh global and macro-driven uh buying.
Uh he is very clearly top-down. So, he will have to arrive at a country or arrive at a industry before he starts doing individual selection. So, like many other investors, uh you do top-down to arrive at the industry and then you do bottom-up uh to arrive at the company in which you want to invest, right?
Not just say, "Oh, software is very good, so therefore I will buy TCS." No, you may have arrived at software and then you may check and say, "Okay, HCL is a good buy." Or something else is a good buy, right? So, something like that. Uh [snorts] portfolios are uh he he manages an international portfolio.
His portfolios are globally diversified, long-term oriented, uh flexible, obviously with a lot of uh disciplined and personalized to client goals. So, he's a fund manager, PMS manager rather than a mutual fund manager. He strongly favors staying invested through market cycle, does not believe in churn, does not believe in uh quick uh selling and buying.
Of course, he has a lot of research focus. Uh he's got long-term orientation. There is no doubt about those things. He stresses patience, uh empirical research, no short-term view, always long-term views. Uh very optimistic on the American economy. Uh I now don't have to tell you that he's an American.
He [snorts] views as part of the process of continuous learning to challenge assumptions and exploit mispricing, crowd psychology, and author of many books, right? So, in summary, uh he's uh pragmatic, anti-herd, uh trust but verify. Trust free markets, but keep verifying. Uh beat them by thinking differently, right?
So, like the PSR historically, which he designed, and constantly guarding against your own biases. That is one thing which he has uh spoken about that uh you could you have to see what is blindsiding you at this point in time. His style has evolved from uh I mean, PSR-driven stock selection to broader research-based, research-heavy, client focus.
In fact, on his website there are many uh uh white papers worth reading. The approach has helped him build one of the largest independent investment firms while authoring like I said, authoring multiple books. And uh I'm very impressed with his philosophy. One of his books uh made me a lot of money.
So, I'm thankful to that. So, if you watched all my videos, you could have by now guessed whom I'm talking about. Thank you.
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