저자: Subramoney · 외국인
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피터 린치의 투자 철학(GARP, PEG, 익숙한 제품 기반 리서치, 인내와 감정 통제, 장기 보유)을 소개하고, 린치의 13년간 연 29% 수익률 사례와 인도 시장 적용 사례를 설명한다. 다만 시대 변화로 린치 방식을 그대로 따르기 어렵고, 철저한 리서치가 필수라고 강조한다.
다듬은 글
Welcome to Subramani. I'm going to talk to you about uh Peter Lynch's uh investing style. Not because I don't know whether it will work now. But Peter Lynch is a first of all Peter Lynch has been a great fund manager with a track record of getting 29.2% from 1977 to 1990 which means in 13 for 13 years he got a [snorts] CAGR [clears throat] of 29%.
Believe me, if you can get uh uh [snorts] half of that uh which is 15% for 13 years, 14 years at the uh middle or at the later part of your portfolio, you've created sensational returns, right? But it has happened in India. Some fund managers have done that. [snorts] But [clears throat] having said that, Peter Lynch as a fund manager has done one thing great is he's communicated very well about what he has done.
Not many people have done that very well. So that is where Buffett and Peter Lynch and uh Talibu all [snorts] stand out saying this is what we did this is what we did and therefore there there is some learning which is can happen from that book. Uh [snorts] by the way please uh welcome to Subramani please subscribe please hit the bell icon I need to increase my number of subscribers.
So who was Peter Lynch? He was the legendary manager of Fidelity Magalan fund right? [snorts] So and it became one of the biggest funds uh I think it was become it had become the biggest fund in uh the mutual fund history and mutual fund history of US would be the longest right India and all entered much later so he had become it had become one of the largest funds I'm I'm still not sure about the ranking his approach was now everybody has heard this is uh growth at reasonable price in fact that day somebody said growth at sensible price.
Now, GARP sounds good because you have heard about it, but uh growth at sensible price sounds like gasp and uh well, that's what it is. Uh so, he blended value investing. So, some kind of uh similarity you can find between Peter Lynch and uh Warren Buffett, but with [snorts] focus on companies showing uh strong earnings growth while trading at fair valuations.
He was very concerned uh about uh go back to Graham, right? It has to be uh one rupee stock available at uh 50 pes or right. So it is like secret butt theory. Uh there are some puffs still left in all the butts that you see thrown around. So he popularized PEG saying uh you can pay a higher PE for a company which is growing well.
So you don't look only at PE you look at PE compared to the growth that this company is going to do. So for example a colgate or a H2L does not give the kind of growth which uh let's say uh Zomato can give or an indigo can give. So obviously they they deserve a higher P. I'm not even comparing across industries.
I'm not saying HL can be compared to indigo but I'm just saying when the growth rate is lower you want to pay a lesser PE. Uh [snorts] what is P is something which I have spoken about many times. So I'm just saying when he is the man who made PEG that is how much PE are you paying for a company and for that growth what price is worth paying is something which uh uh Peter Lynch popularized.
He emphasized that stock should not be overpriced relative to their growth potential. But having said that we also know that you cannot project too much of the growth potential into the future. Uh you don't know what will happen. Will uh will Facebook be as popular uh in 2030 as it was popular in 2020?
I don't know because the younger generation is today not so much on Facebook. They are somewhere else. Right? So unlike many professionals, he believed every day uh this is one thing about Peter Lynch. He believed that everyday uh you and me kind of investors can also do as well as the professional.
In fact, uh he feels that we have some advantages which others don't have. For example, I bought a share [snorts and clears throat] day before yesterday uh at a price of 225 and next day for whatever reasons uh the price went to 26. I like the results but I did not expect it to go up more than 10 12% in one day and I just sold off.
I know that after some time I can get that share. uh for uh mutual fund to do that a it is illegal they cannot they have to take delivery and then only give I can buy in the morning and sell in the evening. This kind of flexibility is available to us and also uh we don't have to sell a share because the value of that share goes up in our portfolio.
Let's say I bought uh 1% of my uh portfolio value in one share and I like it. [snorts] I go and buy another 1% over a period of time. Maybe I do an SIP and the value also increases. Now suddenly it is not 2% of my portfolio but it is 12% of my portfolio. Then what do I do? If I'm a fund manager, I have to come down to 9% anyway legally.
I can't hold more than 10%. Whereas for me I can wait for it to reach 18% or 19% and then start cutting positions. Right? So uh in fact there is a quote of his which I want to say is uh his first rule number one in my book he says is [snorts] uh investors stop listening to professionals 20 years in this business convinces me that any normal person using customary 3% of the brain can pick stocks just as well if not better than the average Wall Street expert.
But the problem is when uh people like Buffett and uh uh Peter Lynch uh and even Morgan Hel say it is simple. It is simple provided you're investing in index. If you're not investing in the index and you're reading Peter Lynch and Peter Lynch says oh he says you should invest in uh products that you know.
So you can maybe typically uh you go and buy uh Colgate toothpaste, you buy HL because you'll use their products. You may also end up buying uh shares of SpiceJet or King Fisher or Jet Airways which you use and lost money. So what Peter Lynch says and what he means you have to understand is uh see whether you're able to understand the product the familiarity and then start doing research.
It doesn't mean go and buy right. So if you're using a product which uh which looks good and uh which you are using which you are very happy with it does not mean it will translate to gains. You have to be very careful. You have to still do research. It is not you can't just buy it. You have to do research.
So I think people miss that. People say oh he said you buy this because I'm using the product so I went and bought Raymond but I'm not getting good return. Depends on when you buy how long you hold and quality of management. All that is important for you to make money. um you would never have made any money if you had bought uh uh Mahindra Holiday Resorts.
Now you didn't make money in that as a user and as a shareholder. Now these things are true. So you went on a holiday, you like the holiday, so you went and bought shares of Mahindra holiday results. You would have only lost money. Lynch favored resilient businesses over glamorous industries. So I think there again he has got a nice quote.
Let me read quotes. I don't want to say on my own because uh it is simple but I wanted to say exactly as he has written. If it's a choice between investing in a good company in a great industry or [snorts] a great company in a lousy industry I'll make the great company uh I'll take the great company in the lousy industry any day.
Uh so I also believe that because the uh how well the company does is not just the industry it's also the question of what kind of talent it can attract. For example, uh HL still attracts the best talent whether it is among chartered accountants, engineers or MBAs. So once you do that then you know how to tackle a problem when it comes.
You cannot think that next 50 years of your investing life [clears throat] there will be companies which will not have problems. The question you're asking is can they tackle the problem and how well can they tackle the problem. Right? So he saw Peter Lynch sort out 10 baggers stocks that multiply 10fold often in overlooked uh areas and warned against over complicating right.
So for example, if I tell you companies like Supreme or even uh companies like Larsson and Tubro were dull, boring companies in which there was nothing uh nothing exciting happening, right? But look at the returns or even HDFC limited HDFC dull boring companies in which nothing was happening. But over years they've given very good returns to their shareholders.
So he says go for a business that u this is a very famous saying go for a business which any idiot can run because sooner or later some idiot is probably going to run that. In fact this is what I tell people about employment. Sooner or later one idiot will be your boss. So be ready for that. [snorts] Uh during those periods you need lot of patience and emotional discipline which uh which were the hallmarks of his strategy.
So he's saying yes you require patience and you require emotional discipline. But I will not give too much credit for this because it's only over a 13-year uh period that he's talking about here. I would think it is uh nice to think what Buffett says about patience and emotional discipline. In fact, Charlie Manga talks a lot about it.
I've made videos about Charlie Manga. So, please go and have a look at it. He urged long-term holding through volatility. The real key to making money is to not to get scared out of them, which is true. We never prepare ourselves for success. We prepare ourself for failure. So when the share market when the price goes down, you bought a share at 100 rupees.
So when it goes down to 80, you know what to do. You will average. It goes down to 60, you know what to do. You will average. At 50, you might panic. [snorts] But when the share [clears throat] goes up from 100 to 120, you will say, "Ah, see, I have told you it'll do well." And you got 100 shares. You got to build your position, right?
There's no point in saying, "I've got 100 shares and it has gone to 1,000." Yes, it's a 10 bagger. You got your 10 bagger. But if you get your 10 bagger on one lakh of rupees, it just means 10 lakhs. It doesn't mean anything at all and it may have no impact on your total overall portfolio. So that you have to be I think uh I wouldn't worry too much about uh what Peterin says simply because things have changed a bit [snorts] and uh whether a company whether you will be able to copy my style of holding on to companies for 40 50 years I I don't know.
So same thing Peter Lynch is advised it worked for him for those 13 years. I'd rather take somebody for whom it is like 70 80 years. So a Buffett rather than a Lynch. But he also reinforced this by saying you can't you get recessions you have stock market declines. If you don't understand what's going to happen then you're not ready then you can't do well in the markets.
But then Peter Lynch is the same person who also said uh if you have spent my time if you have spent uh yeah I think he said if you spent 10 minutes uh looking at the macros you have wasted seven right so he is not a big believer in macros but he also talks about market falling and recessions and things like that [snorts] he acknowledges imperfection by saying in this business you're good if you get six out of 10 right uh I would think maybe even lesser and you're never going to be right nine times out of 10 now this is something which I have seen with very uh academically very good uh [clears throat] analysts they wait till the perfect report is out that's wrong right so sorry I'm digressing so he also uses analogies to illustrate picks and shovels place uh like profiting from uh enablers rather than direct participants so whenever people say oh real estate is booming and stuff like that maybe it is good time to go and buy kachara ceramics rather than saying oh there is no uh retail proxy in India.
Yes, there is uh the there are such uh companies. So overall Lynch's philosophy boils down to fun [snorts] yet disciplined investing where he says investing is fun and exciting but dangerous if you don't do any work which is completely true. If you don't if you've not done your homework you're going to be try you're going to be in trouble.
is timeless. I is completely timeless advising says still says relevant empowering individuals to research and invest confidently in fundamental driven manner. But having said that you have to apply your mind a lot because things have changed a lot since 1990. Thank you.
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