저자: LarryFink · 외국인
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다보스 포럼 후 인터뷰. 피터 핑크는 AI 투자에 버블은 없고 수천억 달러 capex가 성장을 이끈다고 주장하며, 승자와 패자의 로테이션은 불가피하다고 봄. 미국 경제 성장과 달러 자산 비중은 소폭 재배분 수준이라 과도한 우려는 불필요하다고 평가. 장기투자와 광범위 지수 투자를 강조하고, 최근 10년물 금리 변동은 분기 단위로 보면 미미하다고 언급.
다듬은 글
; In many ways, it's fulfilling uh the work that everybody has done. I mean, taking on the responsibility was something that I was uh it was pretty daunting for me to do that with my full-time day job. And um but the amazing team behind uh behind Davos really assisted with me and helped me out. I have an amazing co-chair and um importantly though um I think I think everybody was was in need of having a conversation um you know we as a board we talked about that we wanted to move the conversation and have a much more open robust conversation um and that's how we came up with the spirit of dialogue as the foundation of today but I think the confluence of so many things going on globally I I I think you know we were able to be at the right moment in the right spot and and importantly let let me start off with the foundational issues.
I mean the 55 years of Claus Schwab was a foundation of what we were being able to build upon. But no place other than the World Economic Forum in Davos has the combination of world leaders and we had 84. I think the only other place where you have 84 world leaders in one place is at the UN in New York.
But we had over 800 CEOs in share. We had civil society. We had uh so many different people here and I think it was that conversation, that spirit that really made it. I guess it was touch and go because at times people were bracing for belligerent speech from President Trump. So I don't know how how you look at geopolitics and geoeconomics given what we've learned so far.
I think because of all that everybody wanted to hear, I think Tuesday was just as important. The conversations we had with Europeans, with Mark Carney, with Emanuel Mcronone, they were great, honest, open conversations. I I think Mark Carney delivered an incredible conversation. I may not have agreed with everything he said.
That's not what we're here for. We're here to have that conversation. But I really do believe the openness of those conversations on Tuesday led obviously to a a large conversation with the president of the United States yesterday. And then we had the peace initiative this morning. But my conversation even Wednesday morning with with Jensen on the role of Nvidia and what does that mean for all of AI and you know to me I learned a lot in that conversation.
Or do do you worry about AI bubbles? I mean this is the the thing that worries the markets if you put your black rock hat on for a second. It's AI and it's geopolitics. Which one's more uncertain? I don't think there's any uncertainty about AI. There's no question. Hundreds of billions of dollars is needed to build this out.
The capex is going to drive more global growth. How that is going to be dispersed and where it's going to be is going to be really dependent on each and every government. But I'm I I sincerely believe there is no bubble in the AI space. That being said, like in everything else in capitalism, there's going to be some big failures.
Okay? We always see a rotation and there's going to be some huge winners and some losers. But do I believe the needed capital to build out AI is one of the great opportunities for the world to come. When you think about the hundreds of billions of dollars of infrastructure that's necessary, countries are going to have to rebuild their grids.
We're going to have to source new powers of of of energy. Um, last night at a dinner, we had an amazing conversation on how AI is going to change science and how it's going to improve human lives in terms of medicine. But importantly, there's a strong foundational belief that AI is going to accelerate new sources of power.
And if we could have cheap sources of power, abundant cheap sources of power, maybe things that we can't even think of today through AI, imagine how that could lift the rest of the world. You announced a big [snorts] actually uh partnership with Microsoft that you've raised 12.5 billion as part of this, you know, partnership to bankroll data centers.
Like when are you hitting 30 million? 30 billion. Yeah. 30 billion. When's when's that coming? Well, we raised 12. We announced 12 and a half. We're actively raising more money. We did we did already making an acquisition in line data centers. We the total enterprise value was $40 billion. But not only is Microsoft our partners, uh MGX of Abu Dhabi, um Nvidia is one of our partners, XAI is one of our partners.
Uh and so we have an incredible partnership group in in building this out. and uh and we are seeing more and more opportunity working alongside some of the best hyperscalers and so we see nothing but opportunity and that you but we have to be judicious and we have to be thoughtful about it but I'm very encouraged about what AI can do for humanity
I mean the way we've covered world economic forum is also trying to figure out whether there was a move away from US assets do you see that at all or is it a conversation that you had with with the Trump administration so if I go back to early Davos last year. Uh I would say the average world investor had a unbelievable overallocation in dollarbased assets and I think over the course of last year we saw probably a 5% reallocation and that's fine.
I mean when your liability is another currency and you're investing in dollar I mean the value of the dollar is an important consideration in your total return. [snorts] Um is could there be more reallocation of the dollar? I I think the US because of where we are at AI and the amount of capital that's being spent I think uh I think we have a you know the US economy is is really growing fast.
I mean we estimate it'll be over 5% you know in the first quarter. So we you know the key is now don't just focus on GDP because GDP is heavily oriented to all the capex on AI and technology. The key is in that in that economic condition are we creating enough great jobs and so so to me that is what this what we need to be focused on not just GDP anymore because GDP is going to be powerful and that's one of the reason why I am still you know I do believe the United States is one of the great places to invest and and will remain to be one of the great places to invest but having a diversification AC you know that we've seen a little little bit here and there I'm very relaxed about it I think there's too much noise about that.
Okay. What have you learned here in Davos? I mean, you've spoken to everyone. Uh are people nervous about the relationship between the US and the EU? Is it a little bit better than it was? What do we do with China? What's been the most surprising conversation you've had? How needed people needed to be here to have a conversation?
I I think people came here with a lot of trepidation. I think they came here with a lot of fears. And I do believe we're going to be leaving Davos with less geopolitical fears. I believe we have um you know if there can be peace in Ukraine which I'm heavily involved in and Black Rockck is heavily involved in working on the peace on the prosperity fund.
I mean think about that. If we could have that that's a foundation of of more global economic growth. When you think about when we entered 2025 where we had a war in Gaza, we had all these different skirmishes and you know we may be more nervous and focusing on all these issues but the reality the world is becoming safer not less safe in my mind.
And the last thing I want to say related to volatility which um if you look at the 10-year Treasury on January 1st 2025, April 1st and se October 1st and then January 1st this year if you're looking using those four points of data at the 10-year Treasury, the 10-year Treasury moved three basis points.
Okay. Yes, we've had a lot of volatility. there's been a lot of volatility but that my point is the way I want to talk about that when you look at those wider points there's been no volatility and the the key and the message that we need to be telling people who are watching it's not about the moment it's not about the noise I mean it is about long-term investing you know when I think back if you invested a dollar in the S&P on January 1st 2000 and a year later you had a 30% downdraft because of But over that 25 years, you made over an 8% compounded return, better than almost any other investment.
Again, I think there's just not enough narrative, not enough conversation about we we we got to just walk away from the noise. And if you believe in that we we can be better. If you believe that your your government, your economy is going to grow, you need to grow with it. I said something um in in one of my meetings earlier today.
I don't remember which one now. and and and this one very powerful person in AI came up to me yesterday and he said, "You're right." And what I said was, "We need to make sure if this AI transformation is real. I think we need to make a responsibility getting more people to be investing alongside of it, not watching." And I always say, if you believe in your country, if you believe in your country, why aren't you investing with your country?
And the best way of investing is in a broad index in your country. And I I think one of the one of the foundational problems of Europe has been the underinvestment, the lack of a capital markets in Europe. When you think about the success in the last 24 months in Japan, it started when the when the then prime minister Kashida doubled the size of the Nissa account, which is the self-directed retirement account.
Larry, does that change after the the the threats and warnings from President Trump for Europe? Is this the the time where they focus on? But I heard I heard um Christine Lagarde talk about we you know Europe needs a capital markets, a unified capital markets. I think that's an important message for Europe.
I you know I you know I think President Trump's prompting Europe to take more responsibility in defense and NATO. [snorts] All these things are really wonderful. I think I I'm I'm I I actually am bullish on Europe because I finally I'm starting to see Europe doing these long-term things to build vitality for the future.
Larry, are are you moving west to Detroit? There has been no there has never been a formal conversation or a conversation uh at the board level or at the governance committee about any movement of Davos. There has been a broad conversation. How can we bring the vitality of the world econ economic forum in Davos to other locations?
I will be in Istanbul with the World Economic Forum this spring in Istanbul. Uh there is a spring world economic forum now in Jedha in in April. And so we need to have this foundation of conversation not just here in Switzerland, but we need to have it in other locations. And to me, that is going to be the essence of, you know, of having these things, having more deliberate conversations.
And it doesn't have to always be in Switzerland. But Davos is Davos. It is a great town. The weather is magnificent. The hospitality of the Swiss government has been amazing. I think the the having this congress has really allowed us to have you know intimate conversations um brilliant conversations and importantly open conversations.
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