저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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2026년 미국 증시 전망 인터뷰. 감세·규제완화로 미국 기업 실효세율이 약 10%로 떨어져 미국 투하자본수익률이 세계 대비 개선될 것이라 주장. AI 데이터센터 투자(작년 약 5천억 달러, 2030년 약 1.4조 달러 전망)와 로보틱스·에너지저장·AI·블록체인·멀티오믹스 5대 플랫폼 혁명으로 GDP 성장률이 장기적으로 7% 이상, 생산성 4~6% 가능하다고 전망. 실업 우려에는 신규 산업·우주 등 일자리 창출로 반박. 테스크는 로보택시가 가치의 90%를 차지할 것이라며 목표가 2600달러(옵티머스 미포함) 제시. 규제완화(FDA 동물실험 축소, 원전 규제 완화)를 긍정 평가.
다듬은 글
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. Carol Master along with Tim Stanovvic live here at Bloomberg headquarters in New York City. Well, 2026, as you know, off and running follows three years of double-digit gains for the S&P 500. A total gain of around 80% over those three years. Three years of back-to-back gains as well.
That's the S&P. Three years of back-to-back gains also for the NASDAQ 100. a total gain of about 130% there. And yet, even with the stock market gains in the US in 2025, last year measured against equities worldwide minus the US, stocks have risen around 30%, roughly double the S&P 500's gain. That's according to the MSCI's index.
Here to talk about 2026, the economy, investment ideas. Great to have back with us the founder, CEO, and CIO of Arc Invest, Kathy Wood. She joins us from St. Petersburg, Florida. Kathy, great to have you here. Happy New Year. Happy new year, Carol and Tim. Very happy to be here again. Well, it's great to have you here and I want to start with what stocks did here in the US really well last year, but if you look at global stocks, you could say that there was certainly some underperformance uh by the US.
You've invested in a lot of US names, but also a lot outside the US. And I think about Chinese companies, BYD, BYU, Alibaba. Are you looking for more opportunities outside the US at this point or and and I and I wonder if you think it's time for maybe US stocks to take uh I think um we we're very focused on uh the deregulation, lower taxes and what we believe will be lower inflation, much lower inflation and lower interest rates in the US.
uh and we think the the the combination of those is actually going to drive the returns on invested capital in the US up relative to those in the rest of the world. And I think many people are underestimating, especially on the corporate tax side, that thanks to the new uh depreciation schedules, our effective corporate tax rate, not not the statutory, but the effective uh will drop to one of the lowest in the world at roughly 10%.
Uh certainly near a record low for the US. So do you think Kathy that's not priced in yet to US equities? like have investors not realized that and therefore it's not priced any you know it's it's very interesting maybe a lot of your guests have been talking about the depreciation schedules how uh how massively they are going to encourage uh capital investment here in the United States so we've never had full depreciation in year one of uh manufacturing facilities full depreciation in the first year of service.
Uh that means corporations will get huge tax refunds that they will be able to reinvest uh into innovation because we also equipment domestic R&D and um software those three full depreciation first year of service that has been legislated. Normally we get oh a few years of this uh you know this cut and that cut but that has been legislated now it's all the time.
So uh we don't think people understand how profound some of these tax changes are. So what does that mean for something like the AI trade specifically Kathy where I think people are worried about pockets of it with a you know being in a bit of a bubble. um does it benefit everyone who is somehow associated whether it's the chip companies whether it's the energy companies do you see the benefits playing out there and and giving it more uh room to move to the upside absolutely absolutely I mean we're having huge buildouts of data centers and power facilities all of that uh all of those depreciation schedules will apply um to this boom in investment and contribute to it.
So yes, anything. In fact, Carol. Yeah. Yeah. I was just going to say many people think we're in a bubble. And yes, the data center spending last year was about $500 billion. And you can see all of this in our big ideas report. We just released it yesterday and thank you Bloomberg for featuring it. But $500 billion is a two half times increase from where it had been trending for years.
Uh so big increase, no doubt about it. But we think that number needs to go to 1.4 trillion in the next five years to accommodate the AI boom uh that is now underway and is going to drive productivity gains incredibly. I want to get into that in just a moment. I'm really also peaked or interested in in the healthc care aspect of it because I feel like there's a lot going on.
Before we do so, you we also um have your 2026 outlook and what's interesting is you note that this is an important economic historical moment. How so? Well, we are in a technology revolution. Uh and many people thought that the internet was a technology revolution and to some extent it was. Um but today instead of just one major platform evolving, we have five.
So robotics, energy storage, AI, blockchain technology and multiomic sequencing in the life science space which might which we believe is the most profound application of AI healthc care. Uh and so this boom, if you look back at the railroad boom, uh the amount of investment uh that that uh that we saw back then was about 6% of GDP at its peak, 5 to 6%.
Uh the internet boom was more like the auto boom in the early 1900s. Uh was more in the 3 to 4% of GDP range. We believe this uh this five platform innovation uh strategy or or or boom uh is going to move to 12% of GDP and we do believe also that uh productivity growth will accelerate to the 4 to 6% range and be sustained there.
Normally we see a cyclical peak around there and and then it falls back. We think it will be sustained and we think that by the end of this decade real GDP growth could be averaging uh more than 7% per year. And I know that sounds shocking given that we've been at 3% for 125 years. Um but it is the history associated with technology revolutions.
A step change up in GDP growth. the productivity increase, the GDP growth that that you are forecasting as a result of these disruptive technologies, to what extent is that the result of fewer people doing more? My question is about job losses as a result of this technology because if everything that investors are betting on when it comes to this AI revolution comes true, it means that companies aren't going to need as many people to do a lot more.
What does that look like? Well, uh GDP growth at 7% plus per year tells you there's going to be a lot of economic activity, more economic activity, uh uh on a from a sustained growth point of view than we've seen in quite some time. The history of technology is it's a net job creator. uh in the early 90s when developers were evolving the internet, we could not have imagined Uber or Airbnb back then.
Uh and I think the same is true now. We cannot imagine the kinds of jobs uh that are going to exist in the future. And the other thing that we're excited about from a job creation point of view uh is we're seeing new worlds being created. And by that I mean most of us think about earth. Uh but now uh we're moving into space.
Even data centers we think Elon uh leading that charge will start moving into space and we won't have the not in my backyard and the bureaucracy associated with data centers. There are going to there's going to be huge job creation around the space exploration and all of the opportunities out there.
And then the other one and you'll find this in uh our digital assets section of big ideas uh is the digital world immutable private property rights. Uh we know from economic history the best way to lift people and countries out of poverty is with private property rights that are immutable. Well, that is now moving into the digital world for the first time thanks to blockchain technology.
So, we're not worried about job creation. But for those who are because there is something happening uh that I know is concerning to many people, uh the the unemployment rate for 16 to 24 year olds, right, has moved to 12%. 12% big increase. Uh and what is that saying? That's saying that entrylevel jobs uh are not being created the way they used to be.
To those people, I say, you know, you must have in your mind an idea for a new business, something that frustrates you, uh an unmet need. Well, now you can go to Chatch GBT. uh you can go to Grock and you can have an assistant help you build out that business. Just interview for jobs, but also think about new business ideas.
I think we're going to see entrepreneurial explosion here. Well, and you know, speaking of entrepreneurial explosion, I think about, you know, how long you have certainly been with Tesla and a backer of Elon Musk a long time. And I think about, you know, when we first talked and you likened him to to Mr.
uh Einstein, Albert Einstein. But I just wonder Elon at at at Davos uh earlier today and he talked about the car makers fortunes will be increasingly dependent on humanoid machines. Kathy, how are you modeling this? I mean into the thesis of Tesla and is that where the growth is more so than EVs for Tesla going forward?
Without a doubt. Uh we've always said Tesla is not an auto company. It is actually the convergence of three of the platforms I mentioned. So, robotics, energy storage, and AI. Each one of those technologies, it has its own scurve. Uh, and now they're feeding each other. And we're seeing that in robo taxis.
Uh, robo taxis, we believe, will account for 90% of Tesla's valuation by the end of the decade. Uh, we're in print at 2600. That includes nothing for Optimus uh, robots. And we're beginning to understand how quickly uh Tesla is moving on that front. Why? Because it's the convergence of the same three technologies, robotics, energy, storage, and AI.
Uh so uh I think that price target obviously if if Optimus is successful and and we believe it will be we think that uh humanoid robots is evolving into a $26 trillion opportunity half in the home half in uh in manufacturing plants. Cath we're speaking with Kathy Wood CEO and CIO of Arc Invest. Kathy uh you mentioned Tesla.
We're talking about Tesla, the regulatory environment. Certainly, it's a less favorable regulatory environment for Tesla than it was uh just a few years ago, just two years ago, just one year ago. You also talked about the Trump administration and the ease of regulations that we're going to see through the Trump administration.
You've talked about that with us in the past. I'm wondering, a year into his presidency, what do you still want to see in terms of deregulation? What have you not seen yet that you want to see? Well, I think it's um uh constant chipping away. In his first administration, I think uh I think President Trump said for every uh for every regulation you put in place, you have to take away too.
Uh and so it's a mindset in in this administration and I think we have it. uh we're seeing amazing deregulation in the health care uh on the health care front and I don't think many people understand that uh uh that the FDA has decided that animal testing is no longer ne necessary uh for uh monoconal antibodies uh and I don't think they're as aware of how uh how the FDA is harnessing AI I itself
and encouraging a it's the companies it regulates to start using AI. Uh so I think it's a mindset shift and I think it is happening. I think the most profound deregulation is taking place uh in the energy uh realm and uh that's not just uh oil and gas and so forth. It's nuclear. Uh if we in the 70s had not started regulating nuclear the way we did and driving construction costs up
uh electricity prices today would be 40% lower than they are. And so we think as nuclear uh comes on stream that it will serve to take uh some of the edge off of the increase to electricity prices that data centers are causing now. Hey Kathy, just big broad in terms of you know all of the different funds that you have and the exposure.
I'm just curious where you're seeing flows in and out. We've done some reporting on this and we know some of your funds certainly showing some interest among investors, but we also talked about earlier this week about some of the withdrawals from the ARC innovation. What can you tell us specifically when it comes to flows and performance?
So, so far this year, what's working? What are investors interested in? Well, we have had uh year to date, I think our ETFs have roughly a billion dollars in inflows and heavily skewed to uh space exploration and defense uh for obvious reasons. Uh and then autonomous technology and robotics. I think that uh autonomous taxis uh and and drones uh very big parts of that fund as well.
And then uh our flagship strategy is also starting to inflow uh it had been held down uh by the multiomics theme. So this is what we used to call the genomic revolution. uh and it was a very difficult space even though the uh even though the innovation was taking place uh the investment markets were not interested in it for a couple of reasons.
One lots of investment necessary. Uh therefore not not very high if any cash flows uh and uh and the cash cushions uh needed to to be built up. uh we think they've done a lot in the last few years to become more efficient. Uh and so we're beginning to see outperformance from that space as well because now many people are beginning to understand we're seeing cures to disease.
We're seeing early diagnosis thanks to AI and sequencing technologies. I want to pursue this further with you uh at a later date and some of the companies that are in that. Just 30 seconds though. What's your best idea you think for 2026 at this point? And I know there's a lot in your in your research, but is there a best idea or narrative just quickly if you could?
Well, so so the top three stocks in our uh flagship are Tesla. We think it has miles to go. We do take profits from time to time, but it could break out here in a big way as more and more analysts do their homework on robo taxis. Crisper Therapeutics has moved into the second position. That company is curing cickle cell disease and betaththalmia and has its eyes set on not just rare diseases uh but curing the the bad cholesterol problem especially for those who have hereditary issues in in that realm that could be an enormous market and I don't think anyone is doing the modeling work there the way we are.
I love it. All right. Hopefully we can check back with you uh as the year plays out. Kathy, thank you so much. Really appreciate it. Kathy Wood of course uh be well former CE former founder CEO of course and CIO of Arc Invest joining
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