저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 금리 상승과 채권 약세가 장기화되고, 주식시장은 3월 금리 인상 전후로 한 차례 반등 후 올해 후반 약세장이 올 것이라는 비관적 전망. 금리 전망: 향후 몇 년간 금리가 더 크게 오르며 10년 내 훨씬 높아질 것. 채권은 여러 해 동안 하락할 것이라고 봄. 주식 전망: 2018년 3월 연준 금리 인상 전후 주식 반등이 있을 수 있으나, 올해 후반에는 전 세계 대부분 지역에서 주식을 완전히 정리해야 한다고 주장. 약세장은 과거 4~8년 주기에 비해 9년간 없었던 만큼 다음 1~2년 내 최악의 약세장이 올 것이라고 예상. 인도: 장기 양도소득세 도입은 자본 유치에 불리한 실수라고 평가. 현 시점 인도 주식은 매수하지 않겠다고 밝힘. 원자재·농산물: 석유는 장기적으로 공급 감소로 2019~2020년경 더 높은 가격 예상. 농산물은 장기간 좋은 날씨로 침체 상태이며 지금 농산물 지수를 매수하겠다고 함. 금·은: 현재 금을 많이 보유 중이나 추가 매수는 하지 않음. 향후 급락하면 매수할 계획이며 올해 말이나 내년쯤 금을 더 살 수 있기를 희망. 달러: 안전자산 수요로 달러를 매수하겠다고 밝힘. 2018년 달러 약세 시 원자재·신흥국 자금 유출 가능성 언급. 리스크: 2~3차례 미국 금리 인상 후 시장 문제가 커지면 중앙은행이 부양에 나서겠지만 결국 실패할 것이며, 10년간의 돈 찍기 비용을 치르게 될 것이라고 경고.
다듬은 글
Please Subscribe and don't forget to press the Bell icon to get notified whenever we upload a new video Mr Rogers good morning let me translate in English for you what I just mentioned that since we are talking about a long-term Trend reversal maybe in terms of cost of money we should be speaking to an expert like you who has seen markets for several decades what's your view do you also agree that the era of cheap money is probably getting over no no there's no question about that you will see higher interest rates over the next few years in fact interest rates will go much much higher over the next decade so if you're worried about that You better lock in money now do you think that means we have probably seen a top for all risk assets including equities well we've certainly seen a top for the bond market there's no question about that bonds will go be going lower for many years to come uh we will see probably uh a rally in stocks after the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in March uh depending on how that rally is then I would suspect that later this year you should be out of stocks completely in most parts of the world also Jimma because you closely Track oil do you think uh that oil has also topped out and people were talking about $70 Mark but do you think uh that now the rally in oil will also be difficult well oil is in the process of making a complicated bottom we will look back someday and say in 2015 16 17 18 oil traced out of bottom uh we haven't seen the low yet we haven't seen the high yet nor the low it's a complicated uh pattern you know how charts look but eventually we're going to see higher prices of oil maybe 2019 2020 M uh so you are still bullish on oil you you you don't think this current uh sell off that we have seen in Risk assets is going to affect oil that much well eventually everything will have to go down if the world comes to an end yes everything will go down but remember known reserves of oil are in Decline all over the world except for fracking and the fracking bu is no longer you know you cannot just spell bubble and spell fracking and get more money so the frackers even are having to slow down so supplies are under Jess worldwide for oil uh since you have been tracking India and in India we have recently you know given a budget and in budget long-term capital gains tax was announced what is your view on that and people like you are you still bullish on India or you'll stay back back Well India is a country which needs capital and whenever you tax something you have less of it I mean whether it's sugar or cars or clothes or whatever so putting on capital gains in India in my mind is a mistake it's going to make it more difficult for India to attract Capital both domestically and internationally I I Mr Moody has made a mistake as far as I'm concerned but I'm not Indian I don't vote there so he doesn't have to listen to me yeah but uh would you like to put your money into Indian equities at this point of time no because I'm worried about the world you know it's been nine years since we had a bare market and that historically is unusual that's very unusual usually have bare markets every four to seven or eight years we don't have to but we always have so I would be I would imagine a bare Market will come sometime in the next year will start sometime in the next year or two and it's going to be the worst In Our Lifetime 2008 2008 was bad because of too much debt the debt is much much higher everywhere in the world now where will you B put your money now if you want to allocate your money where will you put your money then well I today I will probably be buying agriculture agricultural uh index because agriculture is depressed we've had a long period of good weather everywhere agriculture is very depressed so I today in fact if I weren't speaking to you or maybe when I hang up I will be buying putting in orders for more agricultural index and gold what about gold sub U since uh there'll be a fall in equities do you think uh gold will outperform or do you think gold will also underperform now I own a lot of gold but I'm not buying gold if gold goes down a lot in the selloff that's coming in the next few months or Year I hope I'm smart enough to buy a lot of gold if it gets cheap because before this is over whenever people lose you lose confidence and money and governments they buy gold and silver whether they should or not is irrelevant they do so I hope I buy a lot of gold later this year or next you know the key driver uh in 2017 for Commodities as well as emerging market stocks was dollar because dollar declined by almost 15% what's your view there now in 2018 how is dollar going to behave I would buy dollars uh if with people looking for someplace to put money Agriculture and dollars when there's turmoil people look for a safe haven they think the US dollar is a safe haven it's not America is the largest deor nation in the history of the world but people think it's a safe haven so I would buy dollars uh or agriculture if I if you are buying dollar and if you think dollar will depreciate over 2018 does that also mean Commodities base metal and steel and other metals may come under pressure and Emerging Markets will also see some kind of outflows in terms of uh foreign investments uh yes yes as I said I think the dollar I would I would be buying US dollars as a safe haven and agriculture I will buy gold later speaking of medals silver and gold later if they go down which I expect I'd like to butt in one more question for you and that is uh rate hikes in USA some are saying it'll be three rate hike some are saying that there'll may be a four rate hikes what is your view and do you think 10e ball deals not going Beyond 3% or there are chances of you know going beyond that as well they will certainly raise interest rates in March that may lead to a big rally around the world because people will think that the news is behind us uh the second or third rate hike in the US will then lead to problems in the markets at which point the American Central Bank will panic when things start getting bad the bureaucrats and the you know the academics in Washington will get worried and then they will give up and they will try to do something to save the market they will cut rates or buy bonds or something trying to save the market there'll be another rally but that rally will not work because eventually the Market's going to say it's too late the market has more money than the central banks and all of this absurd money printing for the past 10 years is going to cost us all a lot in the end you're saying that market will stay weak until feb's next policy and that is March and the rates will be hiked in March am I right sir that's that's what I expect well I I said the markets will be sloppy they won't necessarily keep they won't go down every day or five you know four out of five days or something but the markets will be sloppy until the Federal Reserve raises interest rates people will then say ah the news is out we can buy there will be a rally uh on the news well thanks a lot Mr Rogers for taking time out for us Jim Rogers
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