저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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신용시장은 극도로 변동성이 크고 영향력이 크지만 많은 사람들이 잘 이해하지 못한다. 자금이 과잉이고 좋은 거래보다 많은 돈이 쫓아다니면, 나쁜 거래가 성사되고 가격이 너무 높아지며 대출 보호장치(covenant)가 약해진다. 이때는 자본을 제공하기에 좋은 시기가 아니다. 신용경색(credit crunch)은 공포로 인해 갑자기 발생해 좋은 기업조차 자금을 구하지 못하게 만들며, 이때가 자본 제공자에게는 매우 좋은 시기다. 현재 covenant-light(약정이 느슨한) 대출이 늘고 있으며, 마커스는 최신 메모 'the seven worst words in the world(too much money chasing too few deals)'에서 과잉 자금 경계를 강조했다. 2007년 'race to the bottom' 메모에서도 같은 경고를 했다. 이번 사이클은 2008년 이전과 완전히 같지는 않지만(당시는 대공황 이후 최악의 금융경험), 자금 과잉 vs 아이디어 부족, 약한 거래 수용이라는 구조적 유사성이 있다. 과거 서브프라임 모기지 대신 현재는 낮은 수익률·위험조항 부재의 증권과 조정 EBITDA 기준 대출이 쉽게 이뤄진다. 빅테크(FANG)에 대해 본인은 주식 전문가는 아니지만, 아르헨티나에 100년물 자금을 빌려주는 시장 태도는 낙관·탐욕·FOMO·위험감수 성향을 보여주며 더 신중해야 한다는 신호로 본다. 워런 버핏을 인용해, 다른 이들의 신중함이 낮을수록 우리 자신은 더 신중해야 한다고 강조했다.
다듬은 글
well markets like economies move in cycles long-term market watcher oaktree capital management co-founder Howard Marks says of all the cycles to watch now the credit cycle maybe the most important I talked to him earlier today the credit cycle is extremely volatile and extremely influential and most people don't understand it so that's that combination of three things means well people really should learn about that when when there's what money is freely available to put it briefly bad deals get done bad companies can raise money securities sell too high the loan protections go down that's not a great time to be a provider of capital then every once in a while we get what's called a credit crunch and the credit window the place where people go to borrow and get capital for their businesses slams shut it doesn't go it slams shut all of a sudden mostly out of fear in relationships and negative events in the world and then nobody can get money even good companies can't get money and the standards are incredibly high and that obviously is a terrific time to be a provider of capital so it is as I say incredibly influential and it's something really that people should bone up on we hear now about covenant light covenant free loans is it reminiscent of another period you were one of the people who positioned yourself well going into the last credit crisis do you see that now absolutely my last memo which went out two weeks ago tomorrow it was entitled the seven worst words in the world and they are too much money chasing too few deals because when there's too much money around and the buyers are too eager then what happens prices go too high that reduces prospective returns and increases prospective risk and it's important to know that in the memo I talked about having written another one in February oh seven called the race to the bottom talking about how people work competing to put out money by doing the things I described saying I'll take less return I'll shoulder more risk it's a terrible combination but when people have too much money and are afraid of missing out that's what they do it's it's similar today in some parts of the market and I I don't want anybody to think that I'm saying it's it's as bad as in the last cycle the last cycle up cycle brought on the worst financial experience since the Great Depression 80 years earlier and today's conditions are not comparable so some of the ills are similar qualitatively but not to this to the same extent what does this period remind you of we know it's different this time most dangerous words we can say but they do we do tend to fall it feels as though some of the lessons of that great crisis we're not learned yes well you know one of the main themes that runs through the book is Mark Twain's putative quote history does not repeat itself but it does rhyme so the details are never the same no cycle is ever the same as any of the others but this one is is similar to the last one in the sense of of the I would say the imbalance of money over ideas the eagerness to put it to work and thus the willingness to accept weak deals now it's manifesting itself in different ways 11 years ago or 12 years ago it manifests itself through the issuance of subprime mortgages and the creation of subprime mortgage-backed securities there they're not being heard from these days and there is no analogue to the subprime today in terms of magnitude or let's say fraudulence but still in the credit market nowadays it has it is easy for companies to borrow money with it with securities that have low yields have few risky provisions which lenders in the past have looked for and importantly on the basis of something called adjusted EBIT da EBIT das cash flow adjusted EBIT da say you take the EBIT ah you reported last year well we made 40 million dollars and then you say well it really would have been 50 if this this and this or next year it might be 60 if that that and that and so you say well on basis of 60 this looks like a conservative security it's never conservative to base a lending decision on a what if one of the things that does seem overblown not fraudulent but overblown is the power and weight of the fang stocks the big tech stocks in the market today do you look at them and think that might be a place to be cautious about we're not very much involved in the stock market we're credit investors and I'm no expert in the fangs but I do I do include the fangs on the list of things that that I think in indicate the tenor of the market and when I see the fangs and the willingness to lend 100-year money to Argentina and and things like that what it tells me is that this market is characterized by optimism and greed and fear of missing out and risk tolerance and these are all factors that make me want to be more cautious you know Warren Buffett said the less prudence with which others conduct their affairs the greater the prudence with which we must conduct our own affairs I think this is a time when the prudence being applied by others is not high which means the prudence we apply should be
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