저자: BillGross · 외국인
요약 보기
첫 줄: 빌 그로스는 우표 투자로 큰 수익을 냈고 수익금을 자선단체에 기부하며, 미국채 금리 상승과 이탈리아 국채 약세에 베팅하고 있다. 우표 컬렉션: 'Bible block of six' 우표는 약 25만 달러에 매입한 뒤 약 50만 달러에 낙찰됐다. 전체 경매 낙찰률은 높았고 다수 품목이 원가의 2~4배에 팔렸다. 이번 경매 수익 1,000만 달러와 과거 경매 2,700만 달러 등 총 기부 규모를 강조했다. 향후 4~5회 추가 경매로 4,000~5,000만 달러가 예상되며, 미국 우표 전체 컬렉션은 보유를 유지한다. 우표 투자 교훈: 흔한 우표는 가치가 낮아 어머니의 실패 사례가 나왔다. 주식과 채권처럼 희귀한 'gem'을 고르는 것이 핵심이라고 설명했다. 미국채 금리: 최근 해외 매수자(보험사 등)가 헤지 비용 상승으로 이탈하며 10년물 금리가 30~50bp 급등했다. 10년물 3.20% 부근에서는 추가 상승 여력이 제한적이며 3.30~3.40% 정도까지 갈 수 있다고 봤다. 장기적으로 미국채가 독일 분트보다 낫다고 평가했다. 독일 국채: 미국과 같은 만기 분트 금리는 약 0.5%로, 스프레드 270bp가 장기적으로 축소될 것으로 봤으나 금리 자체는 상승할 수 있다고 언급했다. 거시경제: 실업률 3.7%, 임금상승률 2.6%로 경기는 과열 상태이며, 연준이 향후 금리 3회 인상 가능성이 언급됐다. 연준 기금금리 3% 도달 전망과 1조 달러 재정적자가 경기 과열 요인으로 지목됐다. 애틀랜타 연은 GDP 나우캐스트는 4.08%였다. 과열이 주식 밸류에이션과 자산 버블 위험으로 이어질 수 있다고 경고했다. 포지션: 미국채 공매도(금리 상승 베팅)를 유지 중이며, 이탈리아 국채 공매도로 이탈리아 신용 악화에 베팅했다. 재정 위기 대폭발은 예상하지 않지만 가격 하락과 금리 상승은 예상한다고 밝혔다. 최근 수주간 이 포지션들은 수익을 냈다. 그 외: 우표 컬렉션 중 링컨 암살범 존 윌크스 부스 그림 우표가 1~1.5만 달러 추정가로 마지막 경매에 출품됐다.
다듬은 글
let's start on this wonderful collection of stamps that were sold and there's a couple of more sales plans bill for the next two to three years the United States stamp treasures William H gross collection and you made ten million dollars which you're giving away to charity talk to us about this investment and whether it was a good one in the end it was a bit of an onion I'm saying told us about your stampin investment and whether the whole thing was a good one in the end this one for example making almost eight hundred thousand dollars do you remember what you paid for the the block of six the the Bible block of Salem yeah the Bible block of six and it's called a Bible block because it was found in a Bible over a hundred years after it was put in there and it was a block of six of the original ten cent u.s.
stamps I paid you know perhaps two hundred fifty thousand for it and it sold for I guess a half a million it's indicative of what stamps have done over the past ten to fifteen years they're sort of like art sort of like painting and perhaps classic cars you know investors can appreciate them but at the same time they can experience appreciation now of all of these and there was more than a hundred and twenty-five lots or so bill were you surprised at the at the outcome well no I expected to be a strong auction there were only three Lots unsold sir everything's sold many of the pieces were two three four times what I paid for it in terms of my cost and so you know it's been a great investment for me let me point out that as you have that it's all going to to philanthropy not philately going to philanthropy Doctors Without Borders is one of my favorite causes the New York neediest sponsored by the New York Times is one of my favorites and so this ten million in addition is a twenty seven million from prior auctions will be all going to the charitable causes now well will you continue to sell these off will you sell your entire collection what what prompts it now well I'm gonna sell the balance of these the US stamp six with the exception I'm going to keep my complete US stamp collection the only complete stamp collection ever formed and the only one of course in the world so I'm going to keep that as a memento of my collecting years beginning in 1993 but the rest of them there'll be four or five more auctions probably the value upwards of 40 or 50 million dollars and so my collecting experience ultimately will have generated in my view perhaps 70 or 80 million dollars for philanthropic causes it's pretty phenomenal given that the reason one of the reasons he started all this was because your mother tried to start collecting but she didn't have as good a track records she doesn't seem to have the eye what was well what what did you learn let's say over the years from collecting stamps that helped you in your investing career sure well she bought stamps that were very common tens of millions of them three cent commemoratives and they weren't rare when she sent me to San Francisco to sell them from my college tuition dealers offered virtually nothing for the stamps and she was quite disappointed what I vowed to do was to buy the right stamps much like you have to buy the right stocks and buy the right bonds and ultimately in terms of an investment philosophy had pointed out that no supply and demand obviously is important and that you want to find that rare gem of a bond or rare gem of a stock that can be a this Peter Lynch once said a five banger or a ten banger well I was in the lot of Paris the other night and it was an exciting night and there was some very very excited philatelist because a couple of the stamps in the collection did go for maybe you know good value let's say maybe a better bargain than then might have on another night so let's move on now if you don't mind bill to some other investment opportunities you have been talking about bonds and this move in bonds you sent out a couple of tweets talking about hedging cos let me just remind viewers that you sent out ural and Japanese previous buyers of 10-year Treasuries have been priced out of market due to changes in hedge costs for insurance companies in Germany Japan for instance US Treasuries yield only minus 0.1 percent point zero one percent lack of foreign buying at these levels likely leading to lower Treasury prices is that a one-off move that is now done or do you anticipate that that move will continue given the way currencies are fluctuating at the moment no I think it's basically one of move your progress spoke to it in detail but it has been a phenomenon in the past few weeks that has you know led foreign buyers and I'm talking about insurance companies and other corporations that buy US Treasuries for various reasons but you know the value in terms of US Treasuries dropped suddenly by 30 or 40 or 50 basis points in terms of yield and so you know that's just one of the factors we have the employment report we have potential inflation we have the feds Powell talking about you know perhaps three hikes going forward and so you know at these levels with the ten-year Treasury at perhaps 320 plus or minus you know it's hard to sustain value there if ultimately Fed funds are going to be at three percent in the next nine to twelve months we just had John Williams on the program a little while ago saying he would love to set a new record for an expansion that were very close to the longest expansion in history and the Atlanta GDP now forecast is at four point zero eight percent is this economy running a hot build you anticipate inflation rising yeah I think it is I mean unemployment is three point seven that's a little bit of a awkward statistic because of you know people that may want to work but aren't listed and in terms of the role so it's hard to know whether that 3/7 is really indicative of wage inflation we saw here the numbers in terms of wages at 2.6 percent and that's still rather controlled but you know the economy is running hot why is it running hot it's running hot because of a trillion dollar deficit and because you know if corporate tax cuts etc etc and so that the heat in terms of GDP now be may be reflected as well in terms of the of equity prices and potential asset bubbles because of the the trillion dollars is basically being thrown into the economy very suddenly so but can I ask you for your your outlook right now on where say ten year and thirty year yields are headed here in the US and perhaps also in Germany sure you know the US Treasury 10-year at 3:20 I don't see much of a much damage potential there you know perhaps 3:30 or 3:40 we've just broken through a an important technical barrier so there's probably a little room to go but not a lot in terms of Germany with the ten-year Bund the same maturity the same quality you know basically at fifty basis points the spread between the two is 270 basis points ultimately I think and that's the problem with portfolio management ultimately that 2.7 percent 270 basis points you know should close somewhat over over the years simply because who would want to buy a Bundys fluence when you could buy a Treasury at 3.2 percent only when the hedging costs you know dictate that and so I think over time Treasuries are better than buns but both may go higher in yield and Bill I want to ask you as well given dollar momentum over the last while have you been making any little changes to the unconstrained bond fund whether it be in corporates agencies or indeed Treasuries yeah basically we've been a seller of bonds you know I'm short bones that I just talked about meaning hope the yield goes up and hope the price goes down and it has in the past few days I'm short Italy which is a tender spot as you know and you know our investors are beginning to question the credit of Italy I don't expect a disaster but I expect deterioration I guess in terms of the price and higher yields an Italian 10-year and I'm mildly short US Treasuries over the past few weeks and all of those investments have paid off well big rolls thank you for joining us of Jonathan thank you of course for speaking to us about markets and obviously about your philately we're going to go out on a one of the lots from the other night at slot 62 pink depicting Lincoln's assassin in fact John Wilkes Booth and the estimate for that was ten to fifteen thousand dollars one of the many wonderful stamps in the william h gross collection more to come in the next couple of years
Comments 0