저자: RichOppa · 한국인
요약 보기
자신의 계좌 수익률(누적 166%, 현재 236%)을 공개하며 장기투자와 감정 통제의 중요성을 강조. 엔비디아·테슬라의 과거 횡보와 이후 급등을 예로 들어, 장기 보유 시 큰 수익이 가능하다고 주장. 나스닥이 3만~4만, 5만까지 간다고 전망하며 여유자금으로 분할 매수를 권유. 올인은 권하지 않으나 시장 이탈 없이 꾸준히 매수할 것을 강조. 후반부는 TQQQ·SOXL 같은 3배 레버리지 비중 축소 필요성도 언급.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Rich Oppa. I’m verifying my account for the first time in a while, and I’d like to talk a bit about why we need to invest for the long term and why we shouldn’t get carried away. Okay, first off, the current returns are 236% and the total is 166%. I don’t look at my account very often, but now, seeing returns like this just doesn’t feel like anything to me.
I’ve gotten used to it. Even if it suddenly went into the negative from here, I think I would just shrug it off. That’s because I’ve already experienced it. I’ve hit minus 50% or 60%, so it doesn’t really bother me anymore. Conversely, even if it hit a plus of 300%, 400%, or 500%, I think it would just be nice for a moment and then fade away.
The biggest reason I can think so nonchalantly is that I have no intention of selling. Since I plan to keep holding it for 20 or 30 years, the intermediate stages don't really matter. In about 10 years, wouldn't the return be at least over 3,000%? Well, 2,000% is fine, and 1,000% is fine too. Anyway, because I firmly believe it will have gone up a lot from now, if it goes into the negative in the middle, I’d just think, "Oh, I’ll buy more at a low price..." I think people would think, "I can buy, that's great." But if it hits around 1,500%, they would probably just think, "Phew, we're only about halfway there.
There's still a long way to go." In short, they would n't really think much about it. Now, the stock market is undergoing a correction today; the Nasdaq is around 1,590 points. Since it will eventually hit 30,000 or 40,000, I don't think it's a bad idea to buy a little bit at a time if you have spare funds.
Sometimes people ask, "Should I buy now?" While the decision is up to each of you, I do n't see any reason why you can't buy. However, there is this: since it's going to hit 30,000 anyway, you could double your money if you buy now. But if it drops to 10,000 and then goes back up to 30,000, you could triple your money.
Of course, triple is better than double, so there is no need to rush into buying. If you go all-in right now, you might get angry if it drops to 10,000 or 5,000. We encounter market crashes constantly while trading stocks, so if you go all-in at a specific point in time, I think you could end up suffering a lot of emotional distress.
So, I absolutely do not recommend going all-in. I believe the most ideal approach is to invest for a lifetime without leaving the market, maintaining a moderate balance where you can straddle the line—meaning you can rationalize it by thinking, "I'm happy to make money when stocks go up," and "Finally, a chance for a life-changing turnaround has arrived!
This is the time to buy like crazy!"—so that when stocks crash, you can rationalize it that way. However, that is easier said than done. You might think, "If I plan to invest for 30 years and encounter a record-breaking market crash in the 29th year, wo n't I go bankrupt?" Right. That is why I believe it is necessary to build a portfolio more conservatively as you move into the later stages.
For instance, you might drastically increase the weight of dividend stocks or significantly reduce the weight of 3x leverage stocks like TQQQ or SXL. Adjustments like this are necessary. Oh, that was today's topic, wasn't it? I will explain why we need to invest for the long term and why we shouldn't compare the process using Tesla and Nvidia as examples.
Nvidia is absolutely insane these days; it's like a festival. It's skyrocketing like crazy, but Nvidia actually had a dark history. Just 2 Up until just three years ago, it was trading sideways or slashing horizontally, so it was subjected to all sorts of ridicule and was practically considered one of the worst stocks ever.
It was truly boring. From October 2020 to October 2022—that is, over a period of about two years—the return was -188%. People were saying things like, "I don't know what's so good about Vidia," "They keep saying it's good, they tell us to be the biggest beneficiary of AI," "But Apple was -18% over two years," "Forget all that, a company speaks through earnings," and "If the return is bad, that stock is trash." There was a lot of talk like that.
At that time, the stock price was around $110. And this is n't that old news; in October 2022, it was in the low $100 range. But what is it now? It hit $680. Now, let's look at Tesla. Tesla is getting a lot of flak these days for being a penny stock, but did Tesla never have good times? Roughly from March 2020 to November 2021— about 1 year and 8 months—the return...
There is a 139% return. While the criteria for long-term investment may vary from person to person, I am someone who believes that you must hold onto any stock for at least 10 years to be considered a long-term investor. In fact, if you look at periods of 10 years or more, so- called blue-chip stocks have generated enormous returns beyond imagination.
If you look at Tesla's cumulative return from around 2010 to the present, it has recorded approximately 11,293. Now, if you look at the boxed section, the period of sideways movement is incredibly long. It essentially stood still for nearly 67 years, from roughly 2013 to 2019. Then, starting in 2020, it skyrocketed.
Nvidia is even worse. Nvidia is a stock that traded sideways for over 15 years, from the early 2000s until around 2015. Then, with the cryptocurrency mining craze, it began to surge dramatically starting in 2016. The point is that it has n't been that long since this surge began. What happens to the people who held on for 15 years?
They achieved absolutely no results. They just wasted 15 years. So, I let it go. However, if I hadn't left the market in the middle and had held onto it until now, I could have received full compensation in just a few years for everything I had been shouting about for 15 years. If you look at the price after it had been trading sideways for 15 years, it is between $1 and $5.
If we could just take a time machine and go back to that moment, we would really pour our entire fortune into buying Nvidia. Why? Because we know it is going to hit $680. What does it matter if you buy it at $1, $5, or $10? No matter when you buy it, it is a guaranteed huge profit. Let's assume there is a time machine and we go back to the past.
If I went there and said, "Hey, Nvidia is going to hit $680, so buy it now," I would naturally be called crazy. Even if everyone else calls me crazy, I know it will go to $680 because I have actually come from the future. It is 100% certain. It is 100% certain. So, as an investor, how would I feel? Wouldn't I be thrilled?
"Wow, I can buy this for $5 now, and I can buy it for $5 five years from now." " Hey, I can buy it for $5 even in 10 years. I have to save like crazy for 10 years. I'm going to be super rich." Would n't that be incredibly exciting? But on the other hand, for someone who thinks, "Hey, it might get delisted at this rate," it would be hell.
They would suffer immensely emotionally and probably cut their losses and get out eventually. Now, while we can't know the future, would someone who is convinced that Tesla will eventually surpass $3,000 be struggling right now? They would probably be incredibly excited. Would someone who firmly believes that Nvidia will eventually hit $5,000 be scared or sleepy about a potential correction?
Probably not. "Even if I enter now, I'll make more than seven times my investment, but if it drops to $100, I'll make fifty times. What is long-term investing all about?" It's just doing it with that kind of mindset. " Tesla is definitely going to surpass $3,000 someday, so buying anytime is a huge profit.
Nvidia is definitely going to hit $5,000, so buying anywhere is a huge profit. If it crashes, it's even better; I just need to buy more. It's great to make money when it skyrocketed. Nasdaq will someday reach 30,000 or 40,000..." It's going to hit 50,000, so buying anytime is a huge profit. There is absolutely no reason to get stressed.
Of course, there is no need to worry about the day either, because there is no chance of it going to fail. It is guaranteed to rise several times, even tens of times, from now. I am convinced, aren't I? We have studied enough, right? Yes, we are confident. We believe in the upward trend. We will keep buying, right?
We won't leave the market, right? Is investing difficult? Are you getting stressed out? I trust that there isn't a single one of our subscribers who feels that way. Investing is so exciting and fun. Because it will make us rich. Just imagine that you have traveled back in time to the future Nasdaq and are investing right now.
Then investing will be so easy and fun, won't it? Okay, that's all for today's video. Thank you.
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