저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
Cathie Wood은 비트코인이 금 대비 강세 전환 중이며, 달러는 상승 압력이 우세하다고 본다. 레이건 시기와 유사한 트럼프노믹스로 달러 강세 가능성을 언급하고, S&P500/금 비율을 주목하나 침체 시나리오는 배제한다. 시장 통화량 증가율 약 5%가 속도(velocity) 하락 추세 반전 여부에 따라 인플레이션을 제한적으로 만들 것이라 보며, 장기적으로 블록체인·로보틱스·AI 등 디플레이션성 기술이 생산성을 끌어올릴 것이라는 장기 낙관론을 펼친다. 미국채 10년 금리는 하락 가능성을 언급하나 구체적 기간은 명시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
Here's Bitcoin to gold. Bitcoin is starting to outperform gold again. Gold peaked January 28th, the day that Warsh was announced as the next Fed chairman if Congress approves him. And and he is slightly hawkish. So Bitcoin has been moving up relative to gold. That's that's interesting. And then just the last two charts two or three charts here.
This one is still a puzzle. Why is that green line metals to gold still going down? Is it China? Is something really wrong in China? I don't know if it's just China, but it is puzzling especially especially now that the gold price has has gone down from nearly I think it was almost The market's greatest potential isn't where everyone is looking.
What if the true tale is playing out in the background while the majority of investors are preoccupied with inflation, interest rates, and worldwide uncertainty? What if the next wave of enormous wealth is based on groundbreaking innovation that is completely changing industries rather than on fear?
That is precisely Cathie Wood's viewpoint. Wood, who is well known for her audacious and forward-thinking wagers, thinks that technologies like blockchain, robotics, genomics, and artificial intelligence will usher in a strong era. She is concerned with long-term transformation and the potential for exponential growth while others are concerned with short-term volatility.
In this video, we're breaking down her vision, her strategy, and why she believes the biggest winners of the next decade may look very different from today's market leaders. . We are just below 99. So what Cal She is suggesting is the the people who are willing to trade or make a prediction, they actually think the dollar is going to go up.
And that goes against conventional wisdom. Now we agree that it is going to go up mostly because of what I just mentioned about foreign direct investment and our capital-friendly, business-friendly tax policies, also deregulation is we think going to increase the return on investment in the United States relative to that in the rest of the world.
That is dollar positive. And we take this chart all the way back into the early '80s. Why? It is because we like to illustrate what happened during Reaganomics and we think Trumpanomics resembles greatly actually Reaganomics. And look what happened to the dollar back then. Now it was coming from the depths of despair in the late '70s, but it really went into overdrive to the point where all the treasury and monetary ministers around the world got together and said, "This is becoming a deflationary risk to the rest of the world." Because a lot of dollar a lot of debt is denominated was and still is denominated in dollars.
So the dollar the debt service was getting more and more expensive back then. We think we're not going to see a surge like we did in the early '80s, but we think the pressure is to the upside. And if you look at this chart in in the context of history, you will see that we are closer, if you take out that that boom in the early '80s, we're closer to the higher end of the dollar's range than we are to the lower end.
And again, I think that goes against conventional thinking right now. We're seeing the S&P to gold and we've been watching this carefully. Remember it was it was a leading indicator for some very bad times in the '70s. And there are some strategists out there who think we're going back into those bad times.
We do not, but this is uncomfortable in that it has tipped down. This is the offset to some extent until very recently. It's crude oil. S&P to crude oil. And that uptrend is still in place even with the the really near more than 50% increase in oil prices. Here's Bitcoin to gold. Bitcoin is starting to outperform gold again.
Gold peaked January 28th, the day that Warsh was announced as the next Fed chairman if Congress approves him. And and he is slightly hawkish. So Bitcoin has been moving up relative to gold. That's that's interesting. And then just the last two charts two or three charts here. This one is still a puzzle.
Why is that green line metals to gold still going down? Is it China? Is something really wrong in China? I don't know if it's just China, but it is puzzling especially especially now that the gold price has has gone down from nearly I think it was almost was it $5,600 down to $4,400. We haven't seen a clear turn in this in this variable, which is quite interesting.
It used to correlate very well with the with the 10-year Treasury yield, which you see in purple there. They they parted ways in '22 when the Fed started tightening. And I would say when central banks started selling gold, I mean buying gold and selling dollars. And again, the yen carry trade unwinding starting in the summer of '24.
So all of those should be in there now. And my guess is that the the 10-year Treasury yield is probably going to fall because we've had a lot of major forces pushing it up. Not the least is of which has been the recent flare-up in commodity prices. If we're right and supply the supply side of the economy is coming to the rescue, we're we're probably going to be surprised at um interest rates coming down as opposed to going up.
Cathie Wood examines how the money supply and inflation are related. The money supply is currently expanding at a rate of roughly 5%, which is historically considered healthy. Typically, it promotes consistent economic expansion without leading to uncontrollably high inflation. However, the velocity of money is another factor that most people ignore.
This only refers to the rate at which money is spent and moved across the economy. This has been slowing down for a long time. There are two main reasons behind that according to Cathie Wood. First, as the population ages, people tend to spend less when they retire. Second, some forms of domestic economic activity have decreased due to outsourcing and globalization.
This tendency, though, may be beginning to reverse. Investment is resuming and manufacturing is gradually coming back to the United States. If this keeps up, money might flow through the economy more quickly, supporting future growth that is more robust and stable. . Here we're moving into monetary policy.
And and away from fiscal policy. And you can see money growth is up to roughly 5%, so it has continued to accelerated having spent some time in negative territory after the uncontrolled money growth post-COVID. You can see that is mapped in green against the CPI. And this is important. It's setting us up for for another Cal She chart.
And you can see that there there is a loose connection between these two metrics. Part of the reason there's a loose connection is velocity. Sometimes when the velocity of money moves down, that takes the the stimulus out of money growth. Because the rate at which money is turning is slowing down. And that typically happens when people are afraid, concerned, or or feeling somewhat negative about their circumstances.
So you can see here that velocity actually has been in a downtrend since the late '90s. And that is when baby boomers started to retire. Very very those were the very early baby boomers. But also it was around the time that China entered the WTO. And there there was a lot of concern in the United States.
Our manufacturing sector effectively was exported to China. And so there were concerns and I think those two variables caused the secular decline. Well, baby boomers are still retiring. And again, when they retire, you know, they're not as free spending. And we are now seeing, however, the reversal of the the shipment of our manufacturing sector over to China.
And I think our tax package is one reason for that. So maybe we're seeing a secular turn in velocity. If if not, it will probably flatline here. And and you know, because baby boomers are retiring, but the manufacturing is coming back and other kinds of investment coming back. Maybe we flatline here and that 5% money growth is what is impacting directly the economy.
And if you think about 5% money growth, that would effectively mean nominal GDP growth would be around 5%. And that would give us room. We think real growth, thanks to productivity, is going to accelerate into the three, four, five percent range. Range. That would leave very little room for inflation.
So here's another look at monetary policy from a very short-term point of view, meaning it's the yield curve as measured by the two-year Treasury yield minus the three-month Treasury yield. And in negative territory, that would suggest the Fed was leaning I would say hawkish or restrictive. And you can see we've just crossed into a positive slope.
Just crossed. So maybe the Fed is operating at a a neutral rate. It's not too hawkish. It's not too dovish. We're in a neutral zone right now. And this chart I've featured a number of times. I I find it fascinating. This is the yield curve again, but it's the 10-year Treasury yield minus the two-year Treasury yield.
And this is the one most commonly referenced. You can see the downtrend that's been in place really since the '08-'09 debacle, the global financial crisis. And the reason I'm interested is even after COVID, when monetary authorities around the world were, you know, put the accelerator to the floor and fiscal policy was profligate.
I mean, just money thrown at the problem. Around the world. We couldn't get this measure of the yield curve back into that 200 to 300 basis point range. And I just have been wondering, what does that mean? Effectively, it means that that the long-term Treasury yield was not following short rates the way it normally does.
And why would that be? And here again, have we hit another peak and are we tipping over again? I don't know. But what that would tell us, and of course, consider the source, it would fit in with our sort of deflationary undercurrent thesis around technology. And and we saw this in the 50 years that ended in the late '20s.
The late '20s in the 1900s, which was also ripe with innovation. So telephone, electricity, internal combustion engine. All riding on top of the railroads that were built out in the 1800s. Well, the equivalent to the railroads this time where is the internet and the digital world. And now we have we have robotics, energy storage, AI, very importantly AI.
Blockchain technology and multiomics technology. All of those are highly deflationary trends. And could the yield curve be picking up on that? We think it might. Now here's productivity, which is a part of that story. The technology, the innovation platforms that I just mentioned involve 15 different technologies.
They're converging and we think that productivity growth is going to soar in in the next few years. In this last part, Cathie Wood shows that although the money supply is expanding once more at a rate of roughly 5%, this does not necessarily translate into increased inflation. The velocity of money, or how quickly money flows through the economy, is what matters most.
This velocity has been declining for decades, she notes. One explanation is that people tend to spend less since they are living longer and retiring. Globalization, which shifted a lot of production offshore and slowed down some aspects of home economic activity, is another factor. She now thinks that this long-standing pattern might be reversing.
Investment in the economy is growing and manufacturing is gradually returning. Current money growth could sustain sustained economic expansion without leading to significant inflation if money circulates more properly once more. Technology, in her opinion, is equally crucial. The economy is becoming more productive because to innovations like biotechnology, robotics, and artificial intelligence.
As a result, companies are able to create more with less, which helps maintain constant costs even as growth accelerates. After that, she discusses interest rates and how they now point to a more neutral economic climate that is neither too tight nor too loose. Her basic thesis is straightforward. She anticipates a future in which innovation propels greater economic development while maintaining relatively moderate inflation as opposed to excessive inflation and weak growth. .
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