저자: JohnDoody · 외국인
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금 가격 상승과 워런 버핏의 금 관련 투자를 중심으로, 2020년 8월 기준 금 가격 3,000달러 및 3,460달러 전망을 제시한 영상. 결론: 금은 단기 변동성은 있으나 장기적으로 3,000~3,460달러까지 상승할 것으로 전망됨. 버핏의 금 투자: 버크셔가 약 1,500억 달러 현금을 보유한 상태에서 5억 달러로 바릭골드(Barrick) 주식을 매수한 것은 분산투자 차원의 소액 투자로 해석됨. 바릭골드 및 금광주: 바릭은 연 600만 온스 이상 생산하는 대형주라 성장 여력이 제한적이며, 신규 경영진(Mark Bristow) 체제에서 아프리카 운영 능력이 강점이라고 평가. 금광주는 대형주보다 생산 성장과 파이프라인이 확실한 중소형주가 유망하다고 언급. 연준과 금리: 연준의 금리 인상은 무이자 자산인 금에 불리하며, 1980년 고금리 시기 금 가격 하락 사례를 언급. 현재 금리는 바닥 수준이라 인상 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 인플레이션 관련 연준 발언은 실행 없는 말뿐이라는 입장. 경기 및 대선 전망: 펀드매니저 설문에서 V자 회복보다 이중 침체(double dip) 우려가 커지는 가운데, 금 매수 기회라고 강조. 바이든 당선 시 재정적자 확대와 달러 약세로 금에 유리하다고 주장. 가격 목표: 금 목표가 3,000달러(현재 대비 약 50% 상승)에서 실제 예측치는 3,463달러로 제시. 단기 등락은 있을 것이나 장기 상승 추세 전망. 출연자 전망: 존 두디는 금 가격 상승을 확신하며 3,000~3,460달러를 목표로 하고, 5,000~10,000달러는 자신의 생애 내에는 어렵다고 언급.
다듬은 글
hi everybody it's jessica stone at stansberry research and i've got john duty here from goldstock analyst and john we are seeing some major moves in gold as a lot of people watching know but now we're seeing warren buffett get in on the action why is the oracle of omaha buying gold well you could argue it's just for diversification they have 100 almost 150 billion dollars in cash they spent 500 million to buy some shears and bearer which is a trivial amount i mean you don't do anything with 500 million when you've got that amount of cash so i think it's just kind of get your toes wet they bought barrack which arguably is the best stock for him to buy yeah i wanted to ask you about what you think of that choice well there really aren't very many choices big enough for them to get in and out of but they want to get out newmar would be the other one yeah but beric has new management the the best operator at at the c-suite level is in the businesses is mark bristow who came over with the rand gold acquisition mark is a really tough operator he's done a great job it's amazing what he's been able to do with in africa with africa is notoriously tough to operate in the way to play gold stocks is not by the big ones it's by the ones that have growth prospects of growing and have a pipeline you can see where next year's production is coming from yeah and barrack it's it's really tough there were six million plus ounces a year it's really tough to grow above that you know you're always watching what the fed is doing because of the relationship between fed action and gold prices what are you looking at now on the horizon um we know that there could be a change in how the fed treats inflation what's your rate on that situation uh all talk no action they're not going to do anything the uh the only tool they have is really to raise interest rates and they're not going to raise interest rates down here they're at the floor the the fed no question is it has an enormous impact on gold price the fed killed the gold price alex rally in 1980 at 850 ounce they jacked up interest rates to 20 and gold which doesn't have any yield competes against uh the the interest rates that the the us gets on its debt or pays on its debt and but for 20 down to today's nothing percent gold you know in the last few years has really taken off we're starting to see a lot more fund managers surveyed saying they don't see a v recovery but a double dip recession do you think that we're going to get more opportunities to buy gold at good prices as a result of that i think today is the opportunity our price forecast is three thousand dollars an ounce so that's a fifty percent increase from here do you expect more volatility going forward though or do you think it's just a straight shot to that three thousand oh no there's gonna be some ups and downs no question about it yeah and uh but you know i i don't want to create any controversy but i expect biden to win and and i and i expect that that'll be go give gold another shortener in there because the democrats aren't going to do anything to to to harm the economy and they'll try to do more things to boost it so that means more deficit efforts of spending the dollar the strength of the dollar is really the counter to gold and when when and vice versa the dollar was very strong in 1980 because interest rates were sucking dollars in from the rest of the world to get that 20 now there's no reason why anybody any investor non-us or u.s should buy us dollars or us dollar investments because they can't get any return on all right so if biden harris wins you think it's going to be fantastic for the gold markets do you uh think you'll revise where you think gold can be headed if in fact biden harris does win um well this goal is the top still at 3 000 or is it higher i'm trying to put you down here you're being kind of squirrely do we go above three oh we're going definitely my actual prediction written prediction is thirty four hundred and sixty three okay so the top is not three it's about thirty four hundred yeah but thirty four hundred three thousand is a nice easy to talk about you know people get scared if you talk five and ten thousand you know and people say we've got to see numbers have never scared you john duty you like those big numbers yeah well when when you say are we going to get to 5 000 or 10 thousand i say yeah probably but not in my lifetime hopefully yours i know i like that i always like that when you tell me that because i i think that that gives me a nice long horizon to get there right thanks to you john duty and if you would like um more uplifting commentary from john duty we'll connect you directly to his product a gold stock analyst uh just hover on your screen for that also you can follow us on facebook instagram linkedin twitter and youtube that's all for now thanks for watching
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