저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 미국 증시는 사상 최고치지만 막대한 부채와 통화 팽창으로 언젠가 큰 조정이 올 것이며, 당장 단기 시장 타이밍은 예측할 수 없다. 시장 상황: 미국 증시는 10년 넘게 상승해 사상 최고치를 경신했으나 과도한 부채와 연준의 돈 찍어내기가 배경이라고 봤다. 버블 경고: 긴 상승 뒤에는 버블과 블로우오프가 흔히 나타나며 현재 그 재료가 갖춰져 있다고 봤다. 다만 언제 끝날지는 모른다고 했다. 채권: 역사상 가장 비싼 수준이라 채권은 버블이라고 평가했다. 더 오를 수는 있지만 싸지는 않다. 주식 지역별: 미국 주식은 신고가라 비싸고, 일본 주식은 고점 대비 40~60% 하락해 상대적으로 싸다고 봤다. 중국 주식도 40~50% 하락했다. 러시아: 러시아 주식과 루블 표시 국채가 싸 보일 수 있다고 언급했으나, 그는 러시아 해운주 매수를 초보자에게 권하지 않았다. 원자재: 자산군 중 가장 싸다고 평가했다. 바닥이라는 보장은 없다. 농지: 일본 농지는 농업 인구 고령화로 매우 싸다고 했지만 농사 능력이 없으면 어렵다고 경고했다. 중국 전망: 19세기는 영국, 20세기는 미국의 시대였고 21세기는 중국의 시대가 될 것이라고 전망했다. 분산투자: 부자가 되려면 한 바구니에 계란을 모두 담고 그 바구니를 주의 깊게 지켜봐야 한다고 말했다. 분산투자로는 부자가 되기 어렵다는 입장이다. 비고: 이 영상은 2020년 6월 기준이며 이후 시장 경로와 다를 수 있다.
다듬은 글
I'm here with Jim Rogers here in Singapore Jim thanks so much for for joining me today the American market went up for over ten years which is it never happened before without a without a setback so America has set a new record on the upside it was certainly overdue for something to go wrong the debt got stretched higher and higher and higher not just in the US but all over the world but that's more or less focused on the u.s.
because that makes it simple in the u.s. is the biggest the debt went skyrocketing and it's the Federal Reserve was just kept printing money and and flooding the world with money as did other central bank so the world was ready as you know you and I've discussed I told you we're gonna have another bear market someday another problem someday there's gonna be the worst in my lifetime I didn't know about the virus certainly knew the conditions were fraught the debt was unbelievable we had a huge problem in 2008 because of debt by 2009 10 or sorry 1920 the debt was staggering staggering so we had to have a serious problem whatever caused the problem Kim I know you're aware there's an election in November in the United States it's less than six months away these guys don't care about you or me or your readers or your kids or my kids or certainly not young they care about the election that's all right they're thinking about right now the dead before this the United States was the largest debtor nation in the history of the world oh my gosh since then incest in the last two or three months the debt since skyrocketed it's gonna continue someday somebody's gonna have to sit around and say well wait a minute what do we do next what happens now I would suspect the markets will continue to be fairly strong but the u.s.
just made its all-time high because the money there's so much money being printed and there's so much money being spent it's gotta go somewhere I don't think it's gonna be a lot of fun but it is going to end I assure you the markets just gonna say okay we've seen this movie before we're not gonna play this game anymore but that doesn't preclude a bubble that doesn't preclude a blow-off markets frequently have blow offs after a long period of rising I have no idea I'm not any good at market timing or short term trading they're setting you know trends like that but I I have seen throughout history after markets go up for a while they'll frequently have a bubble and all the ingredients are in place right now for a bubble and bubble is always in finally when somebody says not somebody all these smart old guys get out you know the smart young guys stay and make a lot more money but then even the smart young guys say way to me just we got to stop this young women to young Oh women - that's the way that's the way most bubbles end as I look around the world bonds are certainly not cheap once and never in world history been this expensive so bonds are a bubble that doesn't mean they can't go higher but bonds are certainly not cheap at any measure or any historical time stocks in the US are making all-time highs well that's probably not cheap at an all-time high doesn't mean they can't go a lot higher Japan stocks are down 60 40 or 50 percent from their all-time high doesn't make them cheap but it's cheaper than being at an all-time high China stocks are down 40 or 50 percent I thought I told you I bought Japanese about ETF sexy because that's what the old man running the bank likes to buy so Chinese shares about their Russian shares I mean everybody hates Russia there's still things that may be cheap going forward about Russian government bonds in rubles recently huh nobody likes Russia nobody likes rubles but bonds and run short on bonds especially a very high yielding right now.we ruble collapsed so there are things that might present opportunities as you know anything to do with travel has been smashed I bought a Russian shipping company recently because everything airlines restaurants hotels they're empty well you and I live in Singapore the Singapore Airport is closed essentially so all these things are nobody's paying any attention but Kim I do know we are gonna continue to fly someday we're not all gonna take the bus around around Europe around America we're not gonna all take the bow to to London in the future I do know that airplanes will come back I do know that things can do and having to do with travel and the world will come back someday listen Kim if somebody's watching this and they can't find Russia on a map please do not go by Russian shipping stocks if you don't know how about Russian shipping don't buy Russian shipping cuz some guy you saw on the internet said he's buying Russian shipping if you look at commodities commodities are certainly probably the cheapest asset class around right now because they've been going down for a while doesn't mean it's the bottom doesn't mean you should buy them but if you look at any historic basis I mean sugars down 80 percent from its all-time high bonds are making all-time highs the highest they've been in world history sugars down to 80 percent so commodities just looking around the world at asset classes commodities are certainly the cheapest I guess the farmland farmland in some countries is very cheap because it's been such a disaster for so long if you go to Japan I'll give you farmland because nobody wants to be a farmer the problem is who's gonna farm it you know and that's why it's so cheap because all the farms the average age of farmers in Japan is 66 I give you a farm if you show up but then unless you know how to farm you're gonna be in trouble like everybody else who's gonna fart I got this cheap farm what am I gonna do with I still expect China to be the next great country in the world I don't see any other country on the horizon you know as we have discussed the 19th century was the century of the UK the 20th century was the century of the u.s.
20s is gonna be the century of China whether we like it a lot not a lot of people don't like it if you want to succeed put all of your eggs in one basket it's got to be the right basket and you better watch that basket very very closely but that's how you succeed you don't get rich diversifying I understand the story but but most people who are investing are there to get rich but they want a hot tip and hey we want to get rich this week which is horrible horrible wait and s but that's the reality unfortunately that's the reality I of course they don't do that don't do that don't do that at all don't listen to me don't listen to other people stay with what you know and don't diversify my advice is do it it's extremely educational it's extremely fun but better be sure you mean it it's not easy looks easy oh yeah I got on my motorcycle drive around the world anybody can do that get in my car driver it's not easy many people not many try because it is hard to even try Benny get killed many go home many happy accidents or injuries or whatever so do not even think about it unless it's the deep passion it's like starting a business do not even think about it unless it's a deep passion because these things nearly as easy as they look but if it's your passion I'll tell you there's nothing better you can I get a better education you cannot learn more about yourself and heading back to what we were talking about earlier it's a good we need to find out about ourselves first good way to find out about the world no nothing quite like it it's magic but it ain't easy you might very well get killed so be careful go wash your hands you
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