저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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Jim Rogers는 2021년 2월 기준 비트코인 열풍에 회의적이며 장기적으로 정부 통제로 끝날 가능성을 언급했다. 비트코인·암호화폐: 본인은 암호화폐를 사거나 판 적이 없으며, 다수가 0으로 사라질 것이라고 봤다. 비트코인이 화폐로 성공하면 정부가 금지할 것이라는 견해. 금·은: 은이 금보다 싸다고 보고 보유 중이며, 은이 고점 대비 45% 하락한 상태라 조정 시 더 매수할 계획. 다만 지금은 조정을 기다리는 중이며 절망(despair)이 보일 때 매수한다고 함. 전기차·태양광 수요로 구리·은 등 원자재에 낙관적. 농산물: 가장 싼 자산군으로 보고 계속 매수 중. 주식·채권 버블: 채권은 버블, 일부 도시 부동산도 버블, 주식은 사상 최고치 부근. 2008년 이후 부채가 역사상 최고 수준이라 다음 약세장은 평생 본 것 중 최악이 될 것이며 일부 종목은 80~90% 하락 가능. 4월 급락 가능성에 대해 '가능하다'며 동의하되 시기는 모른다고 함. 공매도·게임스톱 사태: 공매도는 정상적이고 필요한 기능이며, 숏 스퀴즈는 조작에 가깝다고 평가. 시장이 스스로 규제한다는 입장. 대피처: 공매도 또는 적절한 현금(미국 달러)이 유일한 피난처라고 봄. 안전하다는 표현은 쓰지 않음. 일본·러시아: 일본 증시는 고점 대비 30~40% 하락 상태로 신고가 가능성을 언급, 미국보다 일본 선호. 러시아 주식 추가 매수 의향 언급. 정책: 옐런·드라기 등 중앙은행 출신 인사들이 돈 찍기·차입·지출을 선호하며 장기적으로 좋지 않다는 비판.
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he is considered one of the greatest investors of all time he's also the man behind one of the greatest financial books in history hot commodities it's always a pleasure to have jim rogers here on stansberry investor jim welcome back thank you for joining me again well daniel i'm pleased to be here but don't do introductions like that i'm just a simple person please well like i've always said you are simple and that what makes you even more appealing jim because you've always stayed humble throughout your success but i'm very happy because the last time we spoke was about six months ago so it's a really a good midpoint touch base here a lot has happened and i just want to catch up with you but i wanted to start with probably the biggest news this week of tesla taking a big scoop of bitcoin it's very interesting following in the footsteps of michael saylor uh behind microstrategy i guess my question to you is jim what do you think of this uh revolution or evolution as some people call it of executives looking to bitcoin well i repeat to you what i've said before i have never bought or sold any crypto i wish i'd bought the right one the right ones you know i mean many of them have disappeared and gone to zero we all read about the success stories we don't read about the hundreds or probably thousands by now that have disappeared and gone to zero and yeah i know people who are doing extremely well and making a lot of money and having a lot of fun i'm not one of them i will see how it ends but you know yes there's investors who are doing well but the movement of ceos i mean do you think we could see other companies like apple uh netflix turning to bitcoin the more people who join in the bigger the price is going to be the higher the price is going to be it's a very simple equation uh how it's all going to end i i have a different view but in the meantime i'm not going to rain on that parade i'm not even at the parade so more power to them as long as they get out in time as you know people love comparing bitcoin to gold and many people view bitcoin as a great vehicle for wealth preservation uh more so than gold how do you see it jim i i hardly see how it's a wealth preservation it's only been around a short period of time the people who bought it right of making money and creating wealth i'm not sure that that's uh bitcoin hasn't stood the test of time but the step test of hard times if you're talking about wealth preservation we we will see uh my view as as i think you remember is that if bitcoin becomes successful as money which the advocates say then the government's going to outlaw because they don't want to lose the monopoly they don't want the competition they don't they want the control money is going to be on the computer then it already is in china you can't take a taxi in china with money with renminbi with any you can't try to buy an ice cream with chinese money so it's already happening in many countries china is certainly ahead of the u.s but every the u.s is studying figuring out what to do with compute how to do computer money and all money is going to be on the computer but i would suspect it's going to be government money they don't want to lose control yeah absolutely and we saw even the imf alluding to a new bretton woods moment but not one backed by gold um you know they're speaking of a digital currency and as you say we already see china testing out a digital yuan the euro expected to roll out a digital euro um so you know it is a form of government control right because they'll know more about how we're spending the money where we're going uh and you know they love it first of all they don't have to print it because money costs a lot of money you have to transport it print it guard it account for it if it's all on the computer it's very very simple and they control they know daniella they know everything you do and they love that i mean i hate it of course but they call you up and say daniella we've been feeding your babies too much milk this month calm down you know they'll know everything we all do which they love i want to get your thoughts on the reddit craze what did you make of the way the people are positioning it is this david versus goliath situation that has happened of the the people taking down wall street and exposing the ugly underbelly of wall street what did you make of it well all of that's a little bit absurd i mean selling short is not the under ugly underbelly of anything it's been around for hundreds of years it's a highly respected and necessary part of the financial markets to have liquidity and to have credibility so you know the people daniel you know as well as i do everybody needs to sell newspapers everybody needs to get eyeballs and so they they write good stories uh i'm not sure it was it was a mob more than uh the little man uh taking down some some evil plutocrat it was a mob that got together and the the hedge funds i'm still surprised that they sold so much sure i mean i've seen short squeezes all my life and everybody always the first thing i look at is how many shorts are there because then then i'd if i if there are too many shorts i'm not going to sell something short because i know i'm liable to a squeeze and i i still i'm i i don't know them so i don't know i don't know how they made such a i got into such a position but then smart guys said let's do a short squeeze they've been short squeezes for hundreds of years and they did it and they were successful for a while now the government is looking at the government doesn't have to get in daniella it's self-regulating enough people have lost money by now that you don't have to worry about new controls new regulations it'll take care of itself i find that really interesting it's a new perspective i'm hearing jim because you're right the media did depict it like you know the the small guys versus the ugly hedge fund monsters um and it's interesting to hear you say that what hedge funds are doing is just normal part of the game it's been there for history it's not something like people are calling it manipulation what the hedge funds were doing well wait selling short is manipulation since when it's a manipulating danielle the manipulators were the mob the mom said let's squeeze let's have a short squeeze that's manipulation it's pretty clear and simple it's legal they didn't do anything that i know of they didn't do anything illegal uh but to put to manipulation where the guys having the short squeeze all getting on the internet and saying buy it buy and buy i mean the hedge fund guys are clearly smart except for the fact that they over extended themselves i mean this company from what i can see was a dead company i mean the fact that the stock went to 300 for a company which is basically out of business because of some people got together and manipulated the stock and squeezed it why is that why does that make the hedge funds evil the hedge fund guys were smart and did their homework and knew what they were doing except they got overextended of course the mob i mean the mob is going to lose a lot of money in this because that company's not worth fifty dollars much less three hundred dollars it was it was eight dollars before it's gonna go back and probably lower absolutely jim you know we always love getting advice from you uh last time we spoke you liked indian tourism agriculture of course you like gold has anything changed for you or or new sectors of opportunity that have opened up here for you well silver is better silver is still cheaper i mean i own both i've i've i own both and i will be buying more of both but not now i'm waiting for the correction if there's a correction but i will buy silver and i'll buy more silver so we're still silver's down 45 percent from its all-time high daniella gold is near its all-time high stocks in many countries are near their all-time high there's a lot of talk of you know triple digit silver 100 silver especially with initiatives like the green new deal do you see that scenario playing out jim well i do know you know that the world is moving more and more towards electric cars whether we like it or not and electric cars use for instance five times as much copper as they use uh in a regular car so they're going to be more demand and silver of course you is used a lot in in many of the new applications solar energy uses silver so i'm optimistic about many commodities going forward i'm still buying agriculture i i see the cheapest area of the the cheapest asset class in the world i mean bonds are in a bubble property in many cities is is in a bubble stocks are near all-time highs so i commodities are still the cheapest asset class i know and i know one good rule of thumb you taught me jim uh personally many many years ago is you like to buy gold under a thousand under 900 preferably um what would be the mark for silver then under what price well yes i i certainly would like to buy silver under 10.
but danielle i i don't think that's going to happen in my lifetime uh again um no i i don't have a a price for gold or silver right now i let the market usually tell me what to do uh i when i like despair when i see despair or people giving up on something then i will probably buy more silver more gold but there's certainly not despair in either of those markets right now you mentioned the stock market bubbles is something we've obviously spoken about in the past jim and how you prepare for it i had one guest on this week saying we could see it as early as april um and see the bubble pop yes yeah we can that's not a bad observation at all i mean i have no idea again i try to play it as i as i go along i'm still buying shares in some country not in the u.s that you can see the bubble forming i mean danielle i've been to this movie before this is not my first rodeo i know how it's where you see new players come in the whole thing with bitcoin is another sign of that hold the short squeeze we just had massive numbers of new people coming into markets it's all happened before it all plays out more or less the same way in the end and in the end of course it pops and a lot of people lose a lot of money what kind of correction could you see forty percent fifty percent thirty percent what time i don't know this time danielle in 2008 we had a serious economic financial problem in the markets because of too much debt daniella since 2008 the debt has gone up huge amounts everywhere all over the world the debt is the highest in recorded history the next bear market is going to be the worst in my lifetime and the worst in your lifetime 50 60s i mean some stocks will go down 80 or 90 percent that's what always happens i mean it's not some kind of doomsday it's just the way these things work it's just like telling you that this is a bubble a classic bubble developing uh it's the same it's happened many times go back and read about and they always end the same way i mean we're not making you you were making new history but we're not inventing the wheel here we're not inventing bubbles and we're not inventing pops they've always popped this gas that alluded to a huge april correction 40 for correction said uh there's no place to hide not even gold not bitcoin not gold uh the only thing he sees safe is cash in 30-year bonds 30-year treasury bonds um what's safe for you i i never use the word safe in the investment world i've been around long enough some fun place to hide okay something maybe less dangerous or more safe than others well the only place to hide of course is is selling short if you know what you're doing or cash um but you have to have the right cash you know in 2007 and eight a lot of people saw problems coming and they went into cash a lot of them went into icelandic krona that iceland went broke you know so they like it lost a huge amount of money going into cash you got to get the right cash too u.s dollars if you if you're going to ask me which cash i would say us dollar for the next the next turmoil jim uh finally i want to get your thoughts on this uh fed game of chess we're almost seeing play out janet yellen as we know former fed head now treasury secretary mario draghi formerly of dcb now the italian pm um do you do you think this is an interesting move of these fed heads becoming more and more vocal and now in the government well it's not good for you and me it's not good for our kids i i assure you of that uh there's this uh they all work together they all know each other they all think the same way you now have the secretary of the treasury in the u.s who was the former head of the central bank i mean this is all absurd and they all believe in printing money and they all believe in borrowing money they all believe in spending money i don't like it i'm not of that sort but i'm not the treasury secretary fortunately fortunately for me and probably for them too you're joining us from singapore can you tell us a little bit about the situation in terms of reopenings uh what the what the vibe is like well it's a lot more reopening restaurants are open shops are open there's still a lot of controls you have to check in you have to do all of this stuff places close at 10 30 cannot have alcohol after 10 30.
there are still restrictions it's hard to go anywhere because there's nowhere to go you know most countries are either closed or they have quarantines when you get there and and even if there were not many flights so in that sense singapore is is like many other places it's at least opening up but there's not a lot to go outside of singapore jim uh finally let's wrap with you know given the current um financial and political environment just three tips you would give all our investors and listeners watching well i would say watch stansberry investments that's all you need to do watch stansberry tune into daniella's show here at stansberry investor yes watch watch daniella you get all the answers i mean if i were i i told you i will probably be buying some more i will be buying some more commodities maybe when we get off this show um i was sorry to do that uh i will probably buy more russian russian stocks uh probably today um and i guess i might i'm not going to buy more japanese etfs but you know the head of the central bank in japan buys japanese etfs every day i own japanese etfs because it's got a lot more money than i do daniella and the japanese stock market is still down 30 or 40 30 from its all-time high i would suspect the japanese stock market might make a new high i go back to its old highs which was in 1990 you weren't even born when the japanese stock market made its previous high and it may well go back to that so i would and america's near its all-time high so i would prefer to buy japan than the us at this point jim rogers i know it's late there i appreciate you coming on and giving me some of your time today well i'm going to the disco let's go party all right jim rogers joining me from singapore thank you for watching stansberry investor we'll have much more for you so be sure to stay tuned to stansberryinvestor.com and we'll have much more for you coming up follow us on all our social media channels thanks for watching i'm daniela cambodia you
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