저자: Kevin · 외국인
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중동 긴장(이스라엘-이란), 항만 파업, 연준 50bp 인하 이후 금리 상승 등 불확실성이 크다고 진단. 인플레이션 기대치 반등과 채권 변동성 극저점을 근거로 금리가 급락(하락)할 가능성을 주장. 실적 하향 조정 가능성도 언급하나 방향은 단정하지 않음. 강의/유료 상담 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here something big is about to happen and there's some data that you need to know about that gives us heads up on what it is now let's first talk about why something big might be happening first of all we are at insane levels of uncertainty in the market right now we have the potential for a Counter Strike by Israel against Iran we believe that Israel is going to strike Iran's new nuclear facilities to which of course Joe Biden says no no no no please measured response how about sanctions how about anything but more conflict before the election I'm already known for warmongering so obviously politics is playing a little bit of a role here but the Biden Administration has made it clear they do not want Israel to heavily Counterstrike Iran ideally no counter- strike at all like let's let's can we let bygones be byon probably not it's the Middle East after all on top of that you've got the Port strike now the Biden Administration here is also like hey uh can you just pay the workers more money come on we we we don't want to strike on our hands and uh we need the union votes so these things create alone substantial uncertainty in markets but they're obviously not the only things that we're facing the issue is that a Counter Strike by uh Israel in the Middle East likely had has the odds of raising oil prices even more we've already seen oil prices rise as much as 5% yesterday today oil prices were up as much as 4% but as soon as Biden started encouraging a chill out we actually saw oil prices retrace back but the concern with higher oil prices is of course higher inflation now we'll talk about my opinions on this inflation issue in a moment but that's the concern oil prices transport prices go up uh and therefore costs of goods sold go up and companies have to pass on the cost to somebody and it could be the consumer but it's not just that because components of producer prices do also show up in the fed's preferred inflation gauge the personal consumption expenditures gauge which takes from both CPI and PPI okay great so yes oil and gas prices even though they're part of the non-core numbers can affect Downstream inflation it's not good obviously having a Port strike is another thing that may increase inflation for shipping rates though in a weird way it actually might lower oil prices because if you have ships sitting anchored without using fuel they're just waiting to get unloaded then you're not creating necessarily energy inflation but you are likely creating supply chain snarls and those supply chain snarls could lead to you guess it inflation now now the real question that everybody has on their minds is okay we we know about these two uncertainties and so the real question comes down to how long now what's fascinating about how long is what it actually leads to how long is the fact that this already has been known by Industries as both of these frankly being a problem since well uh frankly the Red Sea and the houthis and Israel and has been a problem since October of last year uh Red Sea issues we've already known you got to start ordering earlier but the board strike issue really became an issue when the long shoreman's Association went cold turkey back in June after rejecting the first offer and of course we had some recent late night negotiations before the expiration of the contract that didn't work out long shoremen uh I believe are now maybe down at 66% down from their mid 70s who knows and The Maritime Association or whatever they're somewhere at 50% so we're getting there in terms of uh wage gains uh over you know a 5-year contract but we're not there yet so we've we've known about this since last year so this is a less of a problem this right here we've known about since June now what's interesting is June is frankly if you look at the data June was probably the slow lowest portion of our economy this is when uh in June and July we really started seeing restaurants get hit we started seeing earnings at consumer good companies get hit and it ended up leading to one of the lowest labor reports in August which just left the market kind of looking a little poopy doopy wasn't good now interestingly since then we've actually been climbing back from the bottom well maybe see the September readings that we've gotten for things like the job openings and labor turnover survey the ADP report the jobs report will probably get Friday some of the information that we've gotten in terms of uh ISM reports PMI reports outside of manufacturing we've actually seen some good things we've seen lower inflationary prices on certain uh uh you know items like a report this morning pric is paid weigh in the toilet in the manufacturing business but we're seeing real slowdown in manufacturing not so great but Services picking up a little bit retail sales picking up a little bit GDP picking up a little bit it's almost like some things feel like they're starting to pick up again a little bit but is that pickup fugazi fugazi now why would I say that pickup is fugazi fugazi well it's possible that because we knew this problem was happening this Port strike was coming as of June that we started placing more orders for whatever hiring temporary staff for the holiday season getting our goods and services in place before the holiday season when do you do that well probably the end of Q3 is a great time to maybe start getting your shipments situated so there is a belief that potentially some of this recent bounce that we've seen may be in anticipation of the Port strike and so this then has created a very fascinating dynamic in markets right now since the Federal Reserve gave us a surprise 50 basis point cut on the same day just 17 years later as the 2007 50 basis point cut which of course led to the stock market rallying for 6 weeks and then crashing 52% over the next year what we've actually seen is something very very strange we have seen 10year treasury yields go up which is very odd because you start this cutting cycle you've actually seen the 10e treasury go from about 3.62 all the way up to about 3.8 now you might not think that's a big deal but what it actually does is it tightens Financial conditions more and so a lot of folks they look at this and say okay well you know this is probably because a lot of bond Traders had a lot of profits here so they took profits that's true it's also potentially because the Port strike actually happened and we have this inflationary fear because of the Middle East these are all things that could drive up inflation expectations oh and GOI what do you think is happening right now ah inflation expectations bottomed in September and they've started ticking up again read you the exact number right now so you could have a little bit of Relativity in terms of where we sit but that's not the only thing we've got to talk about here because this is there's there's some important stuff coming up here 2.21 is where we sit right now if you go to September 10th oh it's my dad's birthday you were at 2.03 on the 10-year Break Even leading into the FED meeting uh and that is down from uh the top over in April of 22 so 42222 I'll put I should really just call that 420 but it was 42022 uh and over here at this state you were sitting at about a three handle on inflation break events usually you want inflation break events to frankly be like right just above 2% mostly because uh usually with inflation Break Even slightly above 2% you end up averaging 2% the consumer goods economy and goods and services make up about you know the consumer makes up about 70% of the economy blah blah blah blah blah this is why they want wage gains to be a little bit above the rate of inflation as well that's all normal okay so inflation expectations have gone up interesting okay so what has happened though with bonds and what are volatility is telling us right now and what does that mean in terms of what's going to happen next well something that I shouted out to course members today which is very similar to what I did with Tesla although I don't know what's going to happen now the last time I shouted out a historic volatility chart was right before Tesla went from 175 to 250 we looked at a chart we go oh my gosh this has only happened four times over the last 10 years pay attention to this and uh sure enough within the next four weeks Tesla was at 2 it was crazy uh absolutely remarkable you can actually still go back and watch that course member live stream I called it one of the most important course member live streams ever the day I posted it uh and thos we have a coupon expiring this Friday uh any course by the way gets access to the course member lives but what are we seeing right now well if you look at something like a ticker uh TLT and you pull up the historic volatility chart for it or even the 10-day volatility chart for it you're going to find something very interesting you're going to find that volatility right now on the 20-year Bond uh has not sat this low since October of 23 maybe September of 23 uh April I want to say 0424 April to May it was in that range like towards the end of April uh and right now today so this is based on 10day historic volatility we have not seen which the chart us usually looks something like this you know usually you get stuff like that we have not seen what is that I see something uh White right there I want to get rid of it can anybody help me spot what that is before we talk about what's going on over here nobody knows what that is oh is it this yeah oh oh it's the light we found it we have finally found it there we go sorry little things like that bother me still see it a little bit oh well what does this mean well it means that usually when Bond volatility Falls this low we don't stay there that in my opinion is a sign that something is about to happen but first of all what happened at these two points okay well what happened at these two points was very interesting October 23 can anybody remember what happened with Bonds in October of 23 you should know this there's this person called Bill Amman he's a hedge fund dude and let's just say he likes to talk his book let's just say during covid during the crisis he went on TV with some delicious out ofthe money puts on the stock market presumably and uh turned a few million dollar wager into a few billion dollars because right after he goes on CNBC he goes we need to we need to shut everything down for 30 days to stop the spread like literally shut everything down the people on CNBC were speechless freaking Market tanks the entire week then you get October of 2023 ah what happened in October of 2023 folks it was The Great Bond short yes the bill Amman Bond short if you remember the 10-year treasury yield literally ran up from about 4.3% on the 10-year and Bill lman screaming going we're facing stagflation this is really bad everything's going to hell this is horrible oh my gosh there's so much inflation they're never going to get it down what happens he goes 10year yields are going to blow past 5% and it's like out of a movie my friends treasury yields on the 10 go literally to about 4.99 maybe 4.95 I don't even know if that looks like a 99 you there we go that's cut off a little bit there 4.99 and he literally post covered now in case isn't clear what that means it means he went short here and when your short bonds and yields go up you make money right because the bond is losing value so the yield goes up and as soon as it gets to 4.99 it doesn't even go through five even though he's like it's going to blow past five the sucker covers and he goes you know at this point the um the value is just too good to be true on the treasur Bond you know what Legend H so what promptly happened after that yields went so people are like oh Bill Amman can't move the market line up his tweets yes he can the market ain't as big as you think kind of scary to think about it that way people like oh my God the shorts are manipulating the market maret it doesn't take a lot of money to manipulate the markets I don't think so I've gotten a little jaded forgive me uh maybe I'm becoming too in tune with uh what you know market dynamics look like but I've gotten a little jaded so uh yes Bill AC can move the market so think about that for a moment holy crap wait so that's when bond market volatility was at its lowest yeah cuz it basically just was going up in a straight line and it didn't have a lot of movement and then kind of just slowly went down in a straight line and see volatility doesn't come from that that is not volatile because if you take the first derivative of this you have a flat line now how does this look for volatility take the derivative of that it's going to be a whole lot noisier than straight up or straight down so why do I bring that up well because the second time we had such a low in bond volatility was in April of 2024 well wait Billman didn't do anything in April no what happened in April 24 think about it for a moment what happened in April of 2024 that was unique that would make bond volatility be so low well I mean it means they were going in One Direction yes bond yields were going up why were they going up oh my God we had a full quarter of high inflation January February March second wave yeah everybody was worried about oh my gosh we've now had a full quarter of higher inflation January February March you know January they're like ah one month doesn't make a trend February ah two months doesn't make a trend three months oh okay that's a trend Market actually fell in April too the stock market on this whole second wave of inflation fear so okay this is really interesting so in other words when bond yields went straight up thanks to Bill acman when bond yields went straight up thanks to fears of a second wave of inflation bond market volatility was at record lows because the yields were just every day it's like a roller coaster you know the chain link or whatever so where do we sit today right there bond yields have been basically straight up since jpow day on September 17th so it's been about two weeks straight up now we have started to see a little bit of aop but that might be because of yesterday we saw you know Bond deals fell because of the on or whatever it's pretty minor had a little bit of a tick up there and that's the 10day average is the moving average that you like to use other if you go by like the 3-day or 5 day it's ridiculous use the 10day historic volatility and I think it gives you plenty of a heads up so my argument here is I don't know what in the H double hockey sticks is about to happen but the bond market tells me something is about to snap okay now I don't know if that's up down we're going to speculate that about that but something's about to snap now uh I want I do want to talk about what my opinion is regarding this but I do just want to quickly shout out uh that I am surprised how many people when they get on a phone with my company stock hack or like dude we had no idea you could help us with our you know advising on our trusts our retirement our real estate our home our Le leases our tenants our crypto uh our you know uh businesses business Consulting whatever and and I think honestly I've made a mistake I think I have pitched stock hack as a financial advisor service and people just think oh okay you're some dude who's trying to beat the market no we're literally more like a life coach or or a uh you know a wealth coach is probably a better word because you know I'm a licensed real estate broker run a real estate broker uh we we know how to do wedge deals we we could take somebody with a net worth we believe uh of you know 100K or 50k or 40K or whatever and if we can help them buy a really good wedge deal which there are plenty of that's how house hack was able to turn 50 into $60 million in like one year of operating which is crazy uh well gee then maybe maybe that is a we got to figure out a better way to pitch that so anyway let me know what you think about that but stock hack.com if you want learn more about that book an intro call it's free but uh we can do a lot for for every person that's called us I've look at these scenarios every single day and I'm like okay yeah I've got endless things that I could help you with because it all comes back to me anyway all right so that brings us back to the right side of the board which is how long okay look if the Port strike resolves itself tomorrow and Israel does not attack Iran or there's a lot of time between the attacks all right cool maybe markets can just keep cranking up honestly at this point the jobs report for Friday is probably already priced in we've probably already priced in the assumption that at this point we're just we're just not going to have a bad jobs report on Friday and that's likely because the ADP report came in strong and the jolts report came in strong and so both of those together are probably suggestive enough for markets to assume okay the jobs report's probably going to be good Friday so honestly for me to suggest that unemployment claims as a catalyst tomorrow it's not it's the market might move off of it you might be able to trade off it but it's stupid uh or to suggest that jobs on Fridays are really going to be a big Catalyst now and I said this a few days ago like the market will try to trade off this stuff but the real catalyst is going to come down to earnings and this is where we have to ask ourselves are earnings coming in bad at certain companies because they suck or is it macro like are iPhone deliveries expected to be down because they suck or is it macro are restaurants performing poorly because they got greedy and raised prices too much or is it macro I don't know but what I do know is that we have earnings coming up between about October 11th and then we'll have CPI right after that but October 11th to roughly the end of October beginning of November of course then you got the election everything you have a lot of crazy catalysts so not only do you have earrings but you have the election uh and then right after the election you have the FED meeting and then you have jobs too and CPI in there so you've got this insan menu of catalysts here and it's entirely possible that all of these things go great inflation comes in low uh everybody on average raises their earnings Guidance the Port strike resolves itself Iran resolves itself the election fud goes away and the fed's happy because GDP is looking good well you don't have to be a bear then probably that low in volatility on bonds it would be odd but that low in volatility on bonds might mean that bond prices are just going to do that Flatline for a bit uh I don't think so because the chart would suggest that you're about to have a big move in bonds given the prior two lows I think bond yields are for some reason about to plummet because of the two prior historical times we've seen this I don't know what the catalyst is going to be for it I'm just looking at this chart going this is odd something is about to happen I don't think it is going to be an inflationary Catalyst I actually think there's a chance that you could do the following and and maybe this is what the bond market sees coming I don't know maybe the Port strike gets solved uh or sorry uh the Iranian strike gets solved and they figure something out I don't know maybe the United States gives Israel some money or something maybe the United States gives the Maritime Association some money to stien these union workers now the union workers are happy and The Maritime Association is happy and nobody knows but we just ran the money printer some more do solve this political problem cool I actually wouldn't be surprised that both of those things are already in the works that then kills the uncertainty of how long which then kills the inflation concerns of both of these issues which drives yields down but what else can happen is even with stable jobs you still have massive election uncertainty I wouldn't be surprised you get low inflation and I do think you're going to get downward revisions on earnings because even though companies say they're starting to see green shoots this next quarter of guidance that companies are starting to to give just seems to be negative across the board then again maybe those are just again crappy consumer companies like Nike maybe they're just dead in the water guiding Revenue down 8 to 10% next quarter maybe Apple's phone just sucks and that's why deliveries are expected to be substantially lower and they're already cancelling some manufacturing part orders because they don't need to make as many phones same thing goes for various other companies and obviously we'll study the earnings as they come out but whatever it is my opinion and I just want to be clear about this is I think that yields are about to plummet they could plummet because these issues get resolved they could plummet because CPI comes in low they could plummet because earnings come in Weak they could also plummet because there's some kind of shock they could also plummet because the market decides to sell right before the election but when this plummet happens if this thesis is correct when that plummet occurs and when these uncertainties Peak I want to leave you with a word I have not used in a while and I want you to see it I want you to hear it from me first good luck everyone
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