저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
장기 투자는 기업의 5~15년 이력과 턴어라운드 신호를 지켜보는 일이며, 외부 리스크(원자재·환율·정책)도 함께 봐야 한다. 과거 소형주 성과(Atul, Ace Logistics)와 2020~2022 IT주 급등락을 근거로 든다. 은행주(중소형 은행)를 안전한 섹터로 제시하나 특정 종목 추천은 아니라고 선을 긋는다. 2020년 3월 시장 약세 전망과 이후 Tejas Networks 대량 매수 경험을 회고한다. 인도 시장 중심 발언이며 한국 대상 자산에 대한 직접 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
I told you a while ago that investing is a 24-hour business. I've also mentioned before that I'm not working on a shop floor. I'm not a vendor, a supplier, a lender, a laborer, or a worker. So, what am I? So, what is my job? My job is to just watch 400, 500 companies all day long, to study them, to think about them, and whenever there's a weather change or when a sector is likely to rise, to pick up shares in that sector.
This doesn't happen overnight. I have many such shares, sir, which I've just watched for five years. I did n't work on them. Let me give you an example. You know, like the Global I had, I just watched those shares for three or four or five years because those shares rose a lot once. Its working was good, later the position of the company deteriorated, the second time it became very good and then its position deteriorated again, then I only understood that the company which once goes from zero to 100, from 0 to 500, from 500 it comes back to 200, from 200 it comes back to 700, from 700 it comes back to 2-300 but it is repeatedly going from 200 to 700 or from zero to 500 to 700, there is some potential in that company, otherwise it is not a joke that a company worth Rs 100 crore reaches Rs 700 crore and after reaching Rs 10000 it falls back, so I kept watching that company for four-five years, I used to listen to whatever interviews came for that company, I used to find out about its product from wherever I could get an opportunity, suddenly I understood this in 2014-15 or 16.
The management's commentary on the company started to be good, it started to indicate that the company was turning around, and it failed twice, so it changed its business model twice. The first time it adopted a business model, it was not successful, so due to this the company went into liquidation.
The second business model it changed again was fine for it, but some recession came in 2008-19, something like that might have happened, whatever it was, that business model was fine, but the company could not fail, so I watched that company, and then in 2014-15-16, the commentary started coming that this business is becoming sustainable and my losses have also started to reduce, within two, three, four quarters we will start making profits, so I started taking that stock, so what I mean to say in this way is that you will have to keep following a company, sir, you will have to know its history of the last five years, 10 years, 15 years.
And you have been preparing for it that if there will ever be a turnaround, then this is my job, isn't it? What is my job? As an investor, I am a full time investor, my job is to keep an eye on all the companies, when is whose future changing, when is this happening, so this is it, in the same tale that you named, I saw the same thing that this one was looking the cheapest share, everyone was thinking that this one makes gas kits and when everything related to YC engines will end, then it will not buy into GATE EV, doing this and that, all the shares of all the auto companies were available within Rs 10, shares of many companies, you will still find shares of many companies like this, people thought that oh, let me tell you about a company which works for IC engines and the company has bookings till 2030, forget about 2030 and Tata Motors says this, nothing is going to happen in India before 2030-35, both will run parallel and will run together.
So brother sahib you will have to take care of all these things, you will have to keep following all these news information things, then it will happen sir, hello sir one minute one minute come just sir here Ashutosh is not watching sir on the side of the podium so sir this is that you were talking about ERSERT Auto Ally, in this stock when you said that you want to invest then a lot of people said don't go into it, tell me that story right yes Atul not the auto one sir it is like in all the companies I have invested in till date, believe me what happens now is that first you buy shares, you understand and you buy shares with your intelligence, when the share does not move then you start feeling that you have become a fool, so what do you do, now you start looking for another fool bigger than you, so that you find another bigger fool than me and I make him wear a cap or I tell him that brother you should also invest in shares, then there will be some movement in the stock, okay this is a joke, so maybe you might be talking like you I got hooked, I had bought Atul, two or five other shares and as many other shares as I buy small cap shares, so neither do they have any strength in their balance sheet nor are those shares popular and half the people have not even heard the name of those shares, so to tell anyone, they either say that yes brother, I have not even heard the name of this, but when they read the balance sheet and when they hear it, it seems that the future is bright, but people naturally feel scared in buying it, so I bought one share, Atul, after buying it, I used to go to everyone and tell them that look, this is a company and it is doing so well, quarterly numbers are coming, there is so much expansion plan, this is that, but no one understood it, so people did not buy it, ultimately those shares increased 100 times and coincidentally, I had bought Ace Logistics in 2005 and that share increased 200-300 times, if you If you calculate it till 2017, then between 2004 and 17, I mean, if you have confidence in your thing that whatever work I am doing, but you cannot do this work immediately, you will have to spend your entire life here for it, otherwise it is difficult, otherwise your own confidence will also be lost, if everyone is telling you that brother I will not do this work, then you have to follow your own path that yes brother, it is okay, I have understood, I have to do this work, but you should do it after some experience, it is not necessary to take such risks, one has to be safe, see friend, the speed of the stock market is like a speed of 500-600 kilometers, the speed of this business is such a fast speed, so what I say is that do not become too adventurous in adventurous sports, for example, imagine you are sitting in a roller coaster, you know its speed.
Speed and its hips and its bums are like roller coasters, so don't get too adventurous there, that means don't sit there by unbuckling your seat belt etc. The stock market is such a place where the speed here is so fast and this business is so risky that you shouldn't take unnecessary risks because of these inherent risks.
There is already an inherent risk in every share, one that I used to say at that time, but maybe I forgot to remember that there are two types of risks, one is internal and the other is external. What is internal risk? If you are educated, you know that you have understood the balance sheet of the company, you understand a little about the economy, you understand a little about the country, you are understanding all the products of that company, so you have understood the internal risk, its fundamentals and you have invested in your company, but there is another risk, that is external risk, that is external risk, like what can happen to the monsoon, what can happen to the rain, what can happen to the forex, that supply of that company in some other country.
Some problem has occurred due to which its demand may be hampered as you must have heard that right now in the commodity sector like steel and aluminium, due to China everything gets disturbed, it goes up and down, when China got closed then the commodity prices fell, now when China started opening then the prices of commodities started increasing, these are all external risks, new ones keep coming all the time, every two months, three months, four months, in a year you will get two, four, five such risks, how will you understand them, how will you face them, unless you have the knowledge to understand them, how will you be successful by working directly, hello sir, this is the last question from that side, one minute each, who has the mic, one is with them, second one, after these two questions we will sum up, yes you ask sir, is your sector bullish for the next three-four years, sir, what is it, this world has become very dynamic right now, and here first of all, as I said, I am 10 years, 15-15 years I invest for this, but now the coming time is such that this scenario is starting to change a bit.
Things change every five or three years. You can look at IT yourself. After Covid came in 2020, by 2021, IT shares increased four times, five times, seven times. Including whatever we were talking about in the US, and what happened in 2022, everything got halved. Some went to 40, some to 30, some are still there, but some good stocks went to 30, 40, 50.
And there is a possibility that these people will remain under pressure for perhaps another year because there is trouble going on in the US right now. So this world has become very dynamic, sir, these things keep changing. It is a little difficult to say this. Personally, I feel like this, and I may also be of the color, I don't know.
I feel that the bank shares, the small banks or the mid-sized banks, it seems like this is a good thing to do. It is needed because as I say, the good banks, for example, there is a Kann Bank, there is Federal Bank, this is not a recommendation, there is a credit growth of 15, 17, 18 T in them and while now everyone is thinking that the capex cycle is starting, is starting, we have been hearing this for four years but later on, load shedding happens and it stops, people still think that the capex cycle will start or is starting, in many places, due to what will happen or is going to happen, more demand will emerge, so this sector seems a little safe, but there are many shares in it, one will have to choose which one to buy and which one to leave, but more and this sector seems safe, Namaste Sir, every common man has a question or a problem, Sir, one minute, one minute, one minute, Sir, my request to the wallet is that now he has the mic in his hand, he will talk about this, he will talk about this, after this we will be finalizing the session, Sir, these two sessions, this and this, thank you, Hello, Namaste Sir, it is not only you, you yourself said Sir, Namaste Sir, Sir, a common man 's There is a problem like this, he is well disciplined and regularly invests in SIP etc.
but what happens is that due to many problems he has to withdraw money again and again and this is a problem like if I deposit money then it gets locked for 15 years so one cannot withdraw it but there are no returns in it, I get good returns but one has to take it again and again, maybe some cover can be obtained by health insurance etc.
but take a little but it cannot be fully covered, sir, if there is any guidance for that then please tell me sir, let me tell you the question in short, a common man's question is that if you do SIP etc. then do you have to take health insurance along with it, then you need some guidance, as it is a necessity, and if you want to take SIP etc.
then you should break it first, in PPF category, there is no such thing, then guidance sir, his question is that Usually the money that goes into PPF does not break because it is locked in and the SIP is liquid, so it can break at any time. A normal and small investor first takes out health insurance, does other things, starts SIP as well, but he keeps needing it because he does not have enough money, so he breaks the SIP.
And in products like PPF, where the interest is less, the money remains there due to locking, so it does not break, but where you can get lucrative returns in the long term, it breaks. So what can I tell such people? You cannot stay in the market for the long term, otherwise for the long term, you should invest only that much money which you do not need.
The money which you feel that you do not need for six months or a year or two, you should invest only that money for the long term because if you invest it, then there is no guarantee that the market is going to give you any fixed return every year, which you should understand, in PPF or FD or any other instrument, you will get fixed returns.
It is not necessary that you will get it here as per your wish, so invest the money as per my wish. I invest the money which I may not need for 5 years, 10 years or whatever period I have in mind. I invest the same money in shares. So, in my opinion, this is what you will have to do. The answer to this is asking, hello sir, if you are buying a stock, its book value is less than the market value, then should you buy that stock or not?
Book value is less than the market value, trade value is less than the market value, market value is more, there is no fixed answer to this brother, there are many shares whose book value is 00 for example, and the share price is 5000 and you will also find many shares whose book value is 500 but the price of the share is 400 or 500, whatever it is.
So, do not invest in shares just above the book value, if there is promoter holding or how much should be there then you should buy it, no, this is also not a fixed formula that in all the manipulated companies there is In this you will find that the value is 00, the share is of 00, the promoter holding should be above 50, it should be less than 50, see it is not like that, whatever you are doing right now, it is good, good, if you see that there is no promoter in ADFC, there is no promoter in ICICI, the promoter holding in ICICI, from my point of view, was in the limelight, then it is not above 25-30, no, right now sir, the foreign investor DE who entered in this bank, did they enter to lure the retailers or did they do it like this in this bank, no, right now if there is black money in crores, then no one will invest such a huge amount in the stock market to manipulate, so whether that investment was right or not, I do n't know, only time will tell, but from my own understanding it seems that the money invested by Carlyle was real money, it was not invested like that, but that time has passed, what you are saying in this bank and I feel that that chapter of manipulation is over, it seems maybe Okay, maybe Sir, one last question from my side, Sir, when you were bearish in the market, Rakesh Bhai probably called you and scolded you a lot.
If you would like to share with us your experiences with Rakesh Bhai in the last few days, then tell us about those experiences and some memories. Well, you did your homework completely. So, when this lockdown happened on March 23rd, after that I started feeling that the stock would sink, and of course, what did I think, it had already sunk, saying this I felt that it had already sunk.
So, if any of my interviews have come on TV, then it is mentioned in the interview that my interview was of March 23rd, so something will happen in April or so, so I had said in the interview that do yoga for six months, there is nothing in the stock market, I said this and nothing will happen right now, I had said something like this to the bearish, so Rakesh Sir must have heard that interview, he called me and just like we use abusive language in the stock market language, we cannot take that here.
He started abusing me and said that you idiot, do n't live in this recession, when the market will turn, it will turn in such a way that you will be left watching. I was sleeping after listening to him, I got up and said what is he saying and that but then his words suddenly hit my mind like an electric current, I felt what is Rakesh Bhai saying but I will tell you one thing that whatever my career was of 25 years, 30 years, I never faced a recession in the stock market, not even a single day went by that I was not in cash, whatever cash I had in the stock market, understand that I had maximum cash for 10 days, 15 days in a month, I remained 100% invested in the stock market my whole life, anyway, so when he said this, it felt like an electric shock to me and then from there my focus changed and after that I did the biggest work of my life, I bought Tejas Network, I bought 50 lakhs 55 lakhs Tejas Network, that was the biggest work of my life and anyway, this was it, and you asked last What happened, so let me tell you an interesting thing that we people are like that even when we sleep, there is a boom and all the time there is a boom 365 24* 7, there have been times when I used to tell Rakesh bhai that the market is falling, I don't think anything will explode, it will boom, then he said you are crazy, it is always in a boom, I mean we all used to be in a real boom, Bhaiya, I was in Kolkata at around 6th or 7th July, then I got a call from Rakesh bhai and asked where are you, he said I am in Kolkata, he said ok, ok, he was in the hospital at that time, is he fine, he said ok, ok, then I asked what do you think about the market, he said friend, there is something wrong in the market, the market does not look good, he said what are you saying that is not good, he said yes, I feel that there is something wrong in the market, at that time this dollar and rupee thing, what is it, it was rising a bit, so that was a little worry, okay I went to Bombay again after two-three days and went to meet him there in the hospital bridge candi, I thought it would burst again, I won't be able to get it, this will happen, that will happen, he got so excited and said friend, seven days ago you were saying to leave it friend, so we are temporary for two-three-five days, it happens when the mind becomes a little like this, then that was my last conversation, then I was leaving the bus, then he called me back and asked about Rajiv Bajaj, he is my friend, so he asked how is Rajiv Bajaj, he called me back and asked how is Rajiv Bajaj, he had some health problem, I said no, he is fine now, Raju, he is fine, then he gave me his hand, I kissed his hand and from there I left the witch candi, that was my last conversation, thank you
Comments 0