저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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금 투자는 올해 부진했지만 유럽·아시아 주식시장과 대부분의 원자재보다는 나은 성과다. [세계 경기·주식시장] 미국 다우지수는 고점 대비 1,500포인트 이상 하락했고, 독일 자동차 제조사·텍스트론 등 경기민감주의 하향 가이던스와 중국 둔화로 기업이익이 실망스러울 가능성이 크다고 봄. 단기적으로는 과매도 상태라 반등이 있을 수 있으나, 대부분 종목이 신고가를 쓰기는 어렵다고 함. 주요 지수는 이미 바닥을 쳤을 수도 있다고 언급. 최근 12개월간 미국과 일부 시장을 제외하면 대부분 손실이었고, 분산투자한 투자자도 손실을 볼 가능성이 높다고 봄. [폭락 가능성] 일부 종목은 50% 하락도 드물지 않다고 봄. 하지만 1987년식 대폭락이나 단기 20% 이상 급락 같은 붕괴는 현재 기대하지 않으며, 중앙은행이 완화로 돌아설 것이라고 봄. [채권·금리] 10년물 국채금리는 2011년 이후 최고 수준이며, 연준의 금리인상과 대차대조표 축소, 재정적자 확대와 수요 감소가 금리를 밀어올리는 요인. 10년물 3.2% 수준은 절대적으로 매력적이지는 않지만 주식 대비로는 상대적으로 괜찮다고 봄. 주식과 채권의 관계는 과거에도 일정하지 않아 단정 불가. [정책 개입] 연준이 직접 주식을 사지는 않겠지만 재무부가 차입해 주식을 매입하는 시나리오 가능성 언급. 시장이 추가로 15% 더 하락하면 연준이 금리인상을 멈추고 인하할 수 있다고 봄. [달러] 달러는 단기적으로 더 강해질 수 있으나, 연준이 금리인상을 멈추고 양적완화에 나서는 연말~내년 초에는 달러가 크게 약해질 수 있다고 봄. [귀금속] 올해 달러 기준 귀금속은 약 7% 하락했지만 1999년·2015년 12월 대비로는 상승. 연준이 금리를 낮추고 달러가 약해지면 금·은·백금 수요가 커질 것이라 봄. 강세장에서는 은이 금보다 더 오를 것이라고 봄. 다만 정확한 시점은 모른다고 함.
다듬은 글
this year most European and Asian markets are down more than seven percent in dollar terms so whoever says gold is horrible as an investment it hasn't done well but it's done better than the majority of foreign markets and the majority of commodities are you tired of overpaying for your gold silver and platinum bullion coins and bars then visit SD bullion comm today SD bullion was recently named the one hundred and seventy seventh fastest growing company in the United States by ink magazine this is because they offer at the absolute lowest prices in the industry and follow up with over-the-top customer service so what are you waiting for go to SD bullion calm today enjoy more than 60,000 happy investors that save money on every precious metals purchase they make hey everyone this is Elijah Johnson with silver doctors calm and back with us today is dr.
murk Faber editor and publisher of the gloom boom and doom report mark thank you so much for joining us today thank you alright now the first topic I'd like to discuss is the stock market now around the world that we saw just a couple weeks ago stock the stock markets sell off quite a bit in the United States the Dow right now is down over 1,500 points from its high my question to you is what is your perspective on this why do you see it why do you see it happening and do you see a sell-off continuing in the United States and around the world yes I think would like to know after the correction which is not very substantial in comparison to previous Corrections where after this correct it's a buying opportunity or whether investors should sell or reduce their positions on any rebound my time is that the world economy is slowing down meaningfully we have lots of announcements by economic sensitive companies whether these are multinational German automobile manufacturers or industrial companies that serve numerous markets around the world like Textron and suppose the announcements have been guiding on the downside and it's obvious that the Chinese economy slowing down and I'm an economist but I also look at what is happening around me I can say that there is a slowdown in economic activity everywhere everywhere I go - so I'd say that corporate profits will likely disappoint at the time when valuations are very high and at the time when global liquidity is tightening so my view would be yes maybe there will be a rebound on a very short term date is we're oversold but we're nowhere near as oversold as we were in say February 2016 that was the last big correction from where the bull market continued to roar but we are oversold on a short-term basis and we can rebound somewhat the season of strength between now and early next year but I doubt that the majority of shares will make new life maybe a few shares will make new eyes but my sense is that the indices of most markets around the world they feat doubt already now last time we had you Ron you were talking about how you thought it was unlikely that a major crash was going to happen anytime soon but more like a slow grinding down in the sense of the stock markets around the world what is your perspective a lot of people I'm talking about is are saying that they're looking for more than 50% crash sometime soon it doesn't seem like that's what you're looking for right now well I would not rule out that a large number of stocks will drop by 50% don't forget the large number of stocks have already dropped by 30-40 percent so 50% is now not out of the ordinary but I'd say this I went through the 87 crash we dropped by 21% in just one day that is a crash or if you crash within 10 days by 20% of 15% there is kind of a crash I don't expect that right now I think that central banks will come back in and ease monetary conditions and the worst so I don't see a collapse but I think all the next two years investors will not make any money in equities as by the way most investors have not made any money over the last 12 months some stocks have gone up but if we look at global markets with the exception of the US and maybe one or two other markets all of them are in the right so I think that the situation for investors is not very conducive to its large capital gains I rather think that most investors who have a diversified portfolio will lose money so the question is how much and that will depend on what kind of stocks they own now moving our focus to this bond market we've recently seen a tenure the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest point since 2011 what is your perspective on why bonds are moving or are in a downturn right now and where do you see them heading in the near future has been tightening monetary conditions and increasing interest rates since December 2015 and starting about a year ago the Fed started to reduce its balance sheet in other words they didn't buy additional bonds but they actually sold bonds and as a result of that they reduce the balance sheet this combined with let's say some symptoms of inflation have led bond tires to stay away so knows the supply of bonds is very large because as you know under the Trump policies we have essentially unlimited budget deficits fiscal deficits and we have read use demand which pushes up interest rate I think that compared to equities ten years Treasuries are now relatively attractive relatively but they're not AB absolutely attractive because the yield is not like five six percent but it's three point two percent Radian when investors you know start realizing this how do you see the dynamics between the stock market of the bond market really playing out well to tell you the truth nobody knows for sure they were period in the last hundred years when bond yields went up and stocks continued to rally and there were periods in the last hundred years when bond yields went up in others interest rates went up and stock prices declined Bose has happened so if you ask me today well what will happen to the bond market what will happen to the stock market we don't know for sure we can make certain assumptions but we don't know for sure because the markets are being manipulated by central bank and speaking of that some concrete ways in which central banks are you know affecting the stock market obviously or affecting markets in general obviously you know the feds policy is to control interest rates so that's a very obvious way there but also Japan and Switzerland have you know been buying equities what is your perspective if we see another crisis where there's a significant drop in the stock market do you think other central banks and even the Fed might step in to prop up the market by buying equities well that's a good question because basically do buy equities is not the mandate but as you know the Federal Reserve has a so-called plunge Protection team and to what extent it would be used in a further significant sell-off in equities who knows these are all things you and I we don't know we only can make certain assumption my assumption is that the Federal Reserve that especially the Trump administration does not want a stock market that collapses so what the interventions will be we don't know for sure maybe the site will not come in but what can happen is that the Treasury Department would essentially buy equities that is a possibility and what specifically what do you think that would look like the Treasury buying equities how how would that happen well basically it's quite simple the Treasury could essentially borrow money and use that money to buy equities now if they borrow money then obviously the deficit goes up but then the Fed may ease monetary conditions you understand so indirectly the Fed has of course an influence on essentially the government purchasing equities but it may not happen it may happen my sense is if the market here the stock market drops another 15 percent in other words we would be down by 20 percent peak to trough the Federal Reserve will no longer increase rate and it may very well start to lower rate once again you mentioned how the last thing the Trump administration wants is a falling stock market and also last time we had you on you were talking about the one of the last things the Trump administration wants is a strong dollar now we had you back on in April you said we might see a strong dollar in the short term you know ever since then it's the dollar has just gotten stronger so can you give us an update on this and what do you see happening to the dollar going forward yes the dollar has been basically very strong we will continue who knows because that depends also on policies in Western Europe and in Japan but for now I agree that a lot in strong on some demand - personally I do not think that the dollar should be strong but there are all kinds of views you know they say well the dollar is not a good currency but the others are even worse so these are things that are very difficult to predict I personally think that the dollar they strengthen somewhat more but eventually I think the dollar will weaken considerably as the Fed given the economic weakness that is developing and very clearly developing that the Fed will do longer increase rate and may embark on quantitative easing sometimes - it the end of the year or early next year and in that case I think the US dollar could become very weak now moving our focus to the last topic I'd like to discuss precious metals last time we had you one you were talking about how you're bullish on precious metals especially silver you see has a greater upside we've seen we've seen precious metals stay pretty constant they have just risen in the past couple weeks a bit do you think precious metals have bottomed and also are you still more bullish on silver well the thing is precious metals this year in US dollars are down seven percent okay so it's not exactly a strong performance but they're still up compared to 1999 and compared to December 2015 so it hasn't been a disaster moreover this year most European and Asian markets are down more than seven percent in dollar terms so whoever says gold is horrible as an investment it hasn't done well but it's done better than the majority of foreign markets and the majority of commodities so I think that that the performance is not a disaster but I think even what I just told you that eventually the site will not increase right much further and will eventually cut them I think gold and silver are relatively attractive investment vehicles definitely in regarding gold versus silver are you still seeing that silver has a greater potential upside yes in bull markets for precious metals silver tends to shine you know the outperform gold but as I said we don't know exactly when this turn will come and when precious metals will take off because the dollar strength precious metals have less use for investments for the time being but the moment that dollar weakens I think that lots of people will be interested in gold and silver and also platinum alright well Marc Faber from the gloom gloom and doom report thank you so much for joining us today would you want to run our viewers out where they can find you in any last thoughts you've had we have a website gloom boom doom calm and their investors can subscribe to either a printed version of the GBD report gloom boom and do my report or what suits people most or investors most is the website report which can be subscribed there directly alright once again dr.
Marc Faber thank you so much for your time well thank you very much for having me on your program you
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