저자: WarrenBuffett · 외국인
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워런 버핏이 2018년 옴하 현장 인터뷰에서 기업 인수 기준과 자본 운용 원칙을 설명한 영상이다. 인수 가격 원칙: 상장사 인수 시 시장가에 20% 프리미엄을 얹으면 대부분 좋은 기업은 매력이 없다고 보며, 공정가격은 미래 현금흐름으로 투자금 회수가 가능한 수준이라고 강조한다. 비상장 기업 인수 경험: 사적 기업을 인수하는 것이 상장사보다 유리한 경우가 많다고 말한다. 마스(Mars)를 두고는 훌륭한 사업을 파는 것은 세금 부담과 재투자 문제를 낳으므로 가족이라면 유지하라고 조언한다. 인수 매물 전망: 1972년 시즈캔디 인수 사례처럼 매각은 주로 가족 내부 사정이나 관심 저하에서 비롯된다고 설명한다. 좋은 사업을 돈 때문에 팔 이유는 없다고 한다. 자본 운용 방향: 'elephant gun(대형 자금)'은 현재 600억 달러 이상의 보통주 포지션에 쓰이며, 웰스파고 지분 확대와 월마트 추가 매수를 실제로 했다고 밝힌다. 다만 은행이나 코카콜라, 월마트는 통째로 인수할 수 없어 주식으로 투자한다는 점을 언급한다. 철도주 관련: BNSF 인수 시 노포크서던과 유니온퍼시픽 지분을 매각한 것은 법적 요구가 없었음에도 한 실수였다고 평가한다. 미국 철도 업계의 장기 전망은 긍정적이며, 서부 철도를 동부보다 선호한다고 말한다. 해외 인수 가능성: 이스라엘 ISCAR 인수 사례를 언급하며, 앞으로도 해외 기업 인수 제안이 오면 환영한다고 밝힌다. 다만 대상 자산 목록의 종목·지수·금리·환율에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
Welcome everyone again. This is a special edition of Squawkbox. We're live from Omaha with Warren Buffett, who took the time to sit down with us today and answer not only our questions, but also the ones you sent in. And, Warren, we appreciate it. We received a lot of questions. Carl mentioned that perhaps the most intriguing line in your letter was the idea that your “elephant gun” is loaded and you are ready .
Uh, my finger itches to press the hook. This is what prompted many of the questions that came in. So would you mind if we quickly run through some of these questions in a blitz poll format? Take action. Good. The first question, let’s say, comes from Michael from Canada, who writes: “Since the articles mention that you’re looking for big purchases and the economy is favoring the budget segment, would n’t Family Dollar be a perfect fit?
» Well, there are many companies that would be suitable for a certain price. It's easier for us to buy private companies than publicly traded ones because...people...I don't care about the market price in terms of their value to us, but generally people when evaluating mergers and acquisitions look at the premium to the market price and decide if it's fair.
A fair price for us is the one at which we believe we will receive a return on our investment in the form of future income. And I would say that we usually have better luck with private companies than with public ones. Even though Burlington was a public company...most companies, most good companies, are sold at prices where, if we had to pay a 20 percent premium to the market, I wouldn't want to buy them.
I mean, if you look at 50 large companies that could fit into the "elephant" category. If you add 20% to this price, I wouldn't want to pay that much for such a business. There are a few exceptions, but not very many. OK. Well, let's talk about a private company. Earlier this week we had Whitney Tilson on the air .
He said he didn't know anything, but it seemed to him that Mars could be an interesting company. Well, Mars is a great business, and we are their Wrigley partner. And if the Mars family asked me about selling their business, MGM. I would say: keep it to yourself. I mean, if you have a great business in your life, the best thing you can do is keep it.
You're just trading your great business for a pile of cash that's not as valuable as the business itself, and now you have the problem of where to invest it, and you probably have to pay taxes. So my advice to anyone who has a great business is: keep it . Of course, sometimes, for tax reasons , family circumstances, or something else, a great business has to be put up for sale.
But I told a lot of people who came to me with their wonderful businesses. If you can find a way to keep it, keep it, because all you're doing is taking your billion or five billion and paying taxes on it. After that, you go buy stocks, most of which aren't as great as your business, and you know much less about them.
So sometimes it's worth understanding when you're already doing well. So why would anyone sell their business to you in the first place? Well, they sell because families are growing, branching out, or whatever you want to call it. And sometimes people just lose interest in the matter. We bought See's Candy, one of our first purchases, back in 1972.
Mary C. had several grandchildren, one of whom really wanted to run the business, the other less so. The one who was interested died, and the other, less interested, decided to sell the shares. There are human factors at play here, but you should never sell a good business just for money; This doesn't make sense.
Okay, let's take a few more questions from the audience. This is question number 96, again from Paul from Thailand, who wants to know about " unloading an elephant gun." Do you plan to discharge it in the United States or abroad? Wherever it is, I can't afford to go overboard. There are so few opportunities that, you know, four or five years ago I was very lucky because I received a letter from Israel about ISCAR.
I had never heard of this company before, but I immediately realized that this was our type of business and our type of management. I would like to receive another letter like this tomorrow. And I don't care if he comes from Great Britain, Germany, France, or anywhere else. It is more likely to be the United States than any other place.
But we definitely haven't acquired our last international company yet. Well, another letter, Sergio from Mexico. He wants to know if there is any reason not to use the " elephant gun" in the stock market? For example, increase Wells Fargo's stake to the 10% limit or buy much more Walmart? Yes. Well, over the past year we have done both of those things.
We bought some more Walmart, some more Wells Fargo, and I like those companies, I like the prices they're selling at, and I like their management, but if I had a choice, I would rather buy a large business that meets all of our criteria. But we have over 60 billion in common stock. And these are the parts of businesses that I like.
And most of these companies, like Wells Fargo, we wouldn't be able to buy outright. We can't buy a bank. You know, Coca-Cola is not going to sell itself to us. Walmart is not going to sell to us. So we would be very happy to own 100% of these companies at the prices they are selling at, otherwise I would n't buy their stock.
OK. Roman from Pittsburgh writes in and I think I know the answer to this question, but he wants to know if you would be interested in purchasing more American railroads at the right price. You can't do this. That would be quite difficult. Yes. And actually, when we bought BNSF, the law didn't require it, but we thought it appropriate to sell our interests in Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific.
And it probably cost me at least a billion dollars. I liked those promotions. I mean, I knew these companies would be successful, and legally we shouldn't have done this. We thought it was a good idea, but now I think it was a bad idea. But that's not a reflection of your vision for the rest... Oh, no.
I think I would buy more of those railroads. Those railways have a common future. The great railroads in the United States have a shared future. Right now I like Western more than Eastern, but there are fundamental reasons why railroads will be successful. And no, if I could, at least at the prices of a year ago, I would gladly have bought shares of other railroads in addition to buying BNSF.
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