저자: Kevin · 외국인
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실적 시즌 앞두고 '매도 일변도'에서 기회 탐색 전환 제안. 실적 침체(이익 감소) 가능성 대비 부채 과다 기업 회피 권고. 아마존 vs 애플/구글 부채 대비 시총, 잉여현금흐름 비교. 테슬라는 상하이 공장 휴업으로 마진 부진 우려, 애플은 비용 부담이 이미 반영됐다는 관점. P&G는 소비 트레이딩다운 우려로 비관, 금융주도 경기 우려 반영 시 하방 가능성. 원유 고점 시대는 지났다고 보고 오일 기업 하락 가능성 언급, 달러 약세 시 UDN(달러 인버스) 상승 가능성 제시.
다듬은 글
exactly what to prepare for for earnings season i'm going to go through a few examples explain to you what i'm looking for and at the end i'm going to be talking about some specific stocks the first thing that we want to do is we want to go from a strategy of sell everything into a hunt for opportunity this is really important because the biggest downside of selling is trying to figure out when to re-buy and most people unfortunately who sell never end up rebuying and substantially end up regretting that decision so trying to determine when to rebuy is very very important and actually rebuying is very very important the challenge that we have now is that we have what is expected to be an earnings recession ahead of us this is simply put just when we actually see earnings for companies decline rather than just the stock prices of companies that decline this is a very big difference right we could see for example example apple transition from 180 dollars per share to 140 dollars per share so we have a share price decline the co the company is being valued at a smaller multiple but if now earnings also decline and back when we were at 180 dollars let's just say for example the company gave us nine dollars of annual earnings or about five percent what if all of a sudden at 140 rather than giving us five percent or seven dollars the company is actually only giving us five dollars and that could potentially lead to more compression of the actual price because we're getting less bang for our buck so to speak right and so this creates a hunt and it's going to create a hunt prioritized in my opinion by a few things and these are the things that i want to show you because so far the market and this is what this chart shows hasn't yet actually priced in an earnings recession the blue line represents the decline of sort of the blue upside down mountains represents a decline in prices these are declines in stock prices this year in the 2008 recession this in the dot-com bubble and over here where we are now the white line represents a decline in actual earnings per share and you could see that these earnings per share estimates from analysts haven't yet come down so what are we going to be looking for well in my opinion a few things first we're probably going to be looking away from companies that are super highly indebted and the reason for that is as interest rates go up and these debts have to be refinanced earnings per share that are already expected to go down could go down even more and you look at some of the world's biggest borrowers you see names like toyota volkswagen the auto manufacturers have definitely come under stress recently at t verizon deutsche telekom which is like t-mobile mercedes-benz and comcast you see these companies with massive debts but it's not just these it's also the cruise lines take a look for example here this is carnival and you can see the orange bar represents how much these companies have borrowed during the pandemic and then the green bars over here represent how much in the future is coming due which coming due is just a fancy way of saying how much of this debt has to be paid off when and you could see that hey maybe we're good through 2023 but all of a sudden our debt payoff is going to double in an environment where interest rates are substantially higher and don't even get me started with what happens after 2025.
the same is true of royal caribbean and the same is true over here at norwegian cruise lines and so debt i think is going to be something really really critical that companies are going to or investors are going to look at and are going to evaluate as a primary indicator of okay how long do we think these companies can actually or can they at all survive with remote earnings at all going through a potential earnings recession because again remember an earnings recession represents income or top line revenue going down and when income goes down then obviously the bottom line goes down but if in addition to income going down you also have costs let's say higher interest rates pushing up higher wages pushing up costs even though we might see some declines in oil and energy prices you still have sticky wages and you still have lower margins essentially what happens to your bottom line it continues to go down more and so these are companies that could end up getting really pained going forward so we want to pay attention to companies with high debt even though these cruise lines we look at them now or some other companies we look at and we say wow these companies they seem like they've gotten really really cheap we want to be very very careful of companies highly indebted and so this is where if you look at for example tech companies amazon actually ranks up there in the companies as one of the companies that has a substantial amount of debt but so does apple the difference here though is we can do something known as looking at debt to market cap to try to understand okay how does let's say google compared to amazon so this is pretty simple to do if we just type into google amazon stock and we can see that the amazon stock debt is or their total market cap rather is 1.6 trillion dollars that's for amazon and then let's go ahead and look at apple as well let's see what the apple market cap is and then we'll compare the same thing to google apple is at 2.43 that's aapl and then google for example google in terms of their market cap sits at 1.43 now what we can do is we can go back to that chart that showed us the debt of these companies and we could see that amazon trades for roughly their market cap 1.16 divided by 0.14 140 billion dollars in debt trades for roughly eight times their debt you could look at a company like apple which has about 120 billion and it has a market cap of 2.43 divide that out and you can see that apple actually trades for 20 times their debt and you want a bigger number here because that means you have less debt as a percentage of market cap right and then google for example at 1.43 trades for just with about see we've got about 35.
five they trade at just about there we go 40 times look at that so you can see the substantial difference in the level at which these companies trade compared to their debt and again here the higher number is more desirable because it means you have less expenses but it's not just this total debt figure that we want to look at we also want to look at things like cash flow because ultimately if you can have a high cash flow while still having a lot of debt then maybe your debt isn't that big of a deal because maybe you have high margins right high margins mean you're making more money on uh your your sales and so instead of looking at this debt page let's jump on over here and look at free cash flow and what's fascinating here is you can see that apple and google rank really high on that free cash flow level and amazon ranks really really low right here next to intel and ibm and oracle and so this really puts a highlighter on a company like apple or google who are substantially separated from the amount of debt they have and have a substantial amount of free cash flow which kind of aligns with that debt chart we saw here where amazon had the most debt compared to the smaller market cap very interesting so these things are going to be very important going into the next earnings cycle especially as we look at q2 earnings so what are you going to want to look for when you look at q2 earnings well in my opinion you're going to want to look for exactly the following the first thing you want to look at obviously is the revenue growth of companies really important and this is a transition we're going to go through we want to look at what we now call real revenue growth see nike had negative one percent year-over-year growth that means they lost one percent well now if you subtract inflation it's actually almost like they they shrank to the tune of seven percent or actually no sorry negative one minus about eight percent inflation actually means they grew by negative nine percent which means they shrunk by nine percent crazy right so we're going to want to see revenue growth at companies but we're also going to want to continue to see that free cash flow which you don't see at companies that are losing money and i think companies that are losing money while those could be great trades when we go back to like risk on when people are like yeah we're going to the moon companies that are losing money can move very very quickly like a lemonade or a firm or even matterport for this year but for q2 we're going to be looking at real revenue growth combined with free cash flow and a big separation between how much debt the company has and what the company's actually selling for when i see a big separation between that again amazon i had the smallest separation compared to apple and google and the lowest amount of free cash flow this is why some people say that the way amazon is priced in the market right now is that you're really just paying for amazon web services that that's what you're paying for and you're actually getting the retail division that is amazon.com totally for free now what's remarkable about that is you're either getting a good deal on the company that is you're getting a sas business with a retail business totally for free or you're getting a sas business with an anchor of the retail business which continues to burn money because it's hard to make money in retail so that's all really important to know about regarding the earnings season coming up and how we're going through a transition how we're going away from solely being fearful about inflation and actually moving into looking at these financials a little bit more and trying to start finding stocks that are looking a little bit more valuable as in companies that have gotten discounted because multiples have come down but which companies can still have real earnings of growth without having too much debt that's syncing them now before we talk about the next thing we got to talk about this series a at the beginning of august i'm launching a series a it's a new company that's being created it'll be a combination of sort of real estate meets sas meets investing be very very cool and this isn't a solicitation for you to invest or anything this is just to say that the first folks who will have the opportunity to invest in this company at a superb valuation actually it'll be a one-to-one valuation uh for early investors will be course members so any of those of you who are in the courses on building your wealth linked down below whether it's stocks or real estate or property management youtube you name it any other programs on helping you build your wealth and make more money if you're a member of any of those programs you will have first dibs at investing in the series a which though will be a limited opportunity for folks to invest in and we are closing that once we get to a specific threshold of raise and that's it probably won't raise again no guarantees until ipo and again this isn't here to solicit you it is just to mention that this is coming and then after we have our first week of august launch for course members and we go through august maybe in september if we still need to or if there's extra capacity we'll open it up to any viewer on youtube so check that out linked down below any of the courses will get you access so how does this apply to some specific stocks well unfortunately when it comes to margins i think tesla has a little bit of downside ahead of it in the next earnings release which comes out on july 20th which is in two days in fact because shanghai which is its highest profit margin factory was closed for a substantial portion of the second quarter i'm not looking forward to margins over at tesla in this quarter and i'm kind of worried about what's going to happen to tesla stock though it could be a buying opportunity now apple has had sort of the reverse happen to it apple had really really bad expectations that there were going to be massive misses due to substantial increases in cost to the tunes uh to the tune of over eight billion dollars and so there are substantial headwinds kind of already baked into apple's price and so the hope is that hey even though over at tesla we expect that deliveries are going to be lower which we already know what deliveries are going to be we expect the lower deliveries we're worried that margins are going to be low here at apple we're going in and that's the surprise is margins coming in low here we're going in expecting a monetary hit but margins therefore to be pained and if we now come and get earnings and we see that wait a minute margins actually weren't as bad we could see some upside to apples that's something to pay attention to here margins although for both of these companies i expect any kind of margin result to be temporary now then you look at a company like procter gamble personally i'm not super optimistic about a company like procter gamble because in their last earnings report they talked about how consumers really weren't transitioning to cheaper products yet and that they were still spending and this was based on january february and march that is for example they were still spending on brand names rather than store brands that's like getting the planters peanuts versus the archers farms or the kirkland at costco or getting the gillette razors versus the store brand ones i think we're going to see a transition in this market and that's going to actually hurt margins at procter gamble jp morgan just reported and we saw that they took an elevated amount of loan loss reserves but that really only represented an increase because they've done more lending and so even though they've taken more of a loan loss reserve that was really just a result of lending more not necessarily a result of more fear in the economy so if more fear and more recessionary fear gets priced into markets financials i think still have some downside if we do end up seeing that inflation is transitory that downside will become a quick upside personally in terms of commodities it's as much as it's wonderful that companies like occidental are taking extra income that they're able to receive from higher oil and gas prices and they're taking this money to pay down their debt which is what all companies should be doing the days of expensive oil are gone so while i think that we have maybe one or two quarters left of happiness i think once we get another three quarters out we're going to start seeing some pain at companies like occidental petroleum because all of a sudden i expect oil prices to go back down to that 70 to 80 dollar range if not even lower and all of a sudden they're still going to realize crap we spent some money to pay down our debt but the glory days are now behind us and then what we'll likely see is a momentum drift away from these companies and potentially prices come down where i do think even though there is still some more upside for the us dollar which creates somewhere between a seven to twelve percent risk i do think there's some potential and potentially a company like well it's not a company it's an etf it's an inverse etf called udn and this is shorting the dollar because at some point when inflation does rotate down the dollar is likely to fall with it if the dollar falls with it udn is likely to go up so these are just some thoughts in terms of what to expect going forward
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