저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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결론: 자산은 가격이 싸면 더 사고 비싸면 덜 보유하는 '교정(calibration)'이 핵심이며, 현재 주가 회복 속도를 감안하면 추가 저점 재테스트 가능성을 염두에 둬야 한다. [핵심 원칙] 매수/매도 이분법보다 보유 비중을 늘릴지 줄일지가 질문이다. 환경이 우호적이고 가격이 낮을 때 보유를 늘리고, 환경이 위태롭고 가격이 높을 때 줄인다. 낙관이 클수록 자산 가격이 내재가치 대비 높게 형성되기 쉽다. [3월 패닉과 대응] 3월 패닉 때 Oaktree는 주로 신용상품을 공격적으로 매수했다(3/9~3/23 구간). 정부 조치 이후 3/24~3/26 3일간은 80여 년 내 최고 수익률 3일로 기록됐다. [시장 전망] S&P500은 3/23 저점 대비 약 26% 상승했고, 역대급 빠른 강세장 진입으로 평가했다. 가격이 싸지 않으니 보유를 줄여야 한다고 밝혔다. [저점 재테스트 가능성] 과거 대폭락 후 반등 뒤 저점을 1~2회, 많게는 3회 재테스트하는 경우가 많았고 10번 중 9번꼴이라 언급했다. 2000년 TMT 버블과 2008년 금융위기 때 신고점 회복에 각각 약 7년, 약 5.5년이 걸렸다. 2019년 2월 고점 대비 3/23 약 34% 하락 후 26% 반등한 상황을 근거로 재테스트 가능성을 제시했다. [리스크] 역사가 반드시 반복된다는 법칙은 없다. 바이러스 팬데믹 상황에서 2~3개월 내 2019년 고점 회복은 비논리적이라고 평가했다. [출연자 전망] 단기적으로 지수 저점 재테스트와 조정 가능성을 열어두고, 보유 비중 축소를 시사했다.
다듬은 글
right um you know i wrote a memo one of those ones you referred to and the title was calibrating and i think that it's all a matter of calibration and when i go on tv they try to get me to say buy or sell in or out and it's not that black and white um when should you own more and when should you own less that's the question by the way it's it's kind of a distraction to think about buy sell buy sell own we own investments when should we own more and when should we own less and that's i think that's a rather easy question to answer we should own more when the environment is hospitable and i'll define that in a minute and prices are low and we should own less when the environment is precarious and prices are high again this is all discussed in the book about the the cycle but what does it mean for the michael for the market to be precarious well i described it a bit ago i said it it it occurs when investors are optimistic and there's not much risk aversion and there's a lot of money and a lot of eagerness to put it to work so when these things are true then everything else being equal it's likely that asset prices will be high relative to asset values that's really the key determinant where does the price of what you're considering holding stand relative to its intrinsic value and uh so that and that is determined by factors like the ones i mentioned let's simplify it the more optimistic people are the higher the price is relative likely to be relative to its intrinsic value period and you want to buy when the price is low relative to the intrinsic value or perhaps doesn't reflect all the merits of the intrinsic value and you don't want to hold that much maybe you even want to sell when the price is very high relative to the intrinsic value so you know my point is that in the middle of march we saw a real panic and um and oak tree invested aggressively in the things we buy which are mostly credit instruments uh especially from march 9th when the panic i would say set in until march 23rd when it abated thanks to the actions of the government things went on sale think of it as just going to your local department store and when things go on sale you you should buy more um and we did and uh so you know that and that's what we have done in past crises and that's what we try to do that's our job is to own more when they're on sale and uh then the government came out uh and the news started to filter out around march 23rd about what the government and fed of of the us would do and interestingly here we are in this terrible environment this this terrible health pandemic and from march 24 to 26 those three days were the highest returning three days in the last 80 plus years in the stock market going back to the 1930s and the depression and so you you may say that it was a response to the government programs you may say that it was a relief rally um and the market rose the dow was up 19.8 percent i think in the s p 1706 um and so well guess what after a rise of that proportion and then it has continued higher and the s p which was up 17-6 in those three days is now up about 26 or so um from the low of march 23rd and that's probably the quickest trip into bull market territory in history bull market defined as a period when the market's been up 20 without a decline um so very simple things aren't as cheap anymore they're not on sale to the same extent you shouldn't own as many now when i say you should own more you should own less most people don't want to jump around from day to day most people shouldn't be trading daily in out more or less but the point is uh we had a major move down things were put on sale oaktree bought we had a uh not a corresponding move up but a strong move up and we we stopped buying as much because we couldn't get bargains of the same uh uh magnitude and uh so we first we thought the risk was great in past years and we were defensive then people panicked over the exposure of the risk and we bought and then people got more comfortable and our buying slowed that's that's the way i think about calibrating thank you that's that's that that's very useful and it's it's an interesting um uh challenge because uh markets bear markets usually test the lows there's normally a rally and you said this in calibrating actually you put the numbers there that showed that um over the last i think 80 years or so um when we've seen a decline as we've seen there tends to be a rally but then the market might test it once maybe twice maybe three times i think that i think the figure max was uh nine times out of ten right and if you look at the last two uh crises the bursting of the tmt tech media telecom bubble in 2000 and the global financial crisis in 2008 uh each of the each of the stock market declines you saw a big drop a rally another big drop a rally and another big drop before we reached the bottom so you know it based on history now there are no rules that say history has to apply but based on history the fact that we had a 34 decline uh of the s p from uh february 2019 to march 23rd and then a 26 gain since then based on history we would expect that there would be uh another testing of the lows and maybe two the other thing i mentioned in in that memo was that in uh in the bursting of the tmt bubble it took seven years to get back to the stock market high of 2000 and it took in the global financial crisis after math it took five and a half years to get back to the uh high of the stock market in 2007.
if the stock if the stock market in the states rose another 15 we would be back to the 2019 high do we do we really think that it's appropriate for the stock market in the us to be back at its highs two months or three months and despite this uh this uh virus pandemic and it to me it seems illogical you
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