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hey everyone palente here has been winning some major contracts lately and the stock price has been soaring as a response of course it's one of the hott and of course that's helping its valuation as well so in this video I'll update my stock price prediction for paler stock by the end of 2024 I'll share with you the factors I'm going to use to make my estimate and I'll share with you what I think could happen in terms of several different scenarios and then highlight my base case scenario or the valuation I think is most likely by the end of 2024 so let's take a look so one of the factors I'm going to be using to make my now I'm going to be using the forward price to earnings valuation metric next year and that is 2025 now according tme in at 39 next year in 2025 you can see there's not been very much volatility in its stock uh in its earnings per share expectations although it is down slightly from 40 cents 90 days ago but it's up by a penny from 60 days ago but little volatility in the earnings per share expectations which I find to be surprising because palente here is one of the more volatile stocks in the market it fluctuates up and down significantly but that fluctuation doesn't connect with the changing earnings per share expectations those price fluctuations are based on news items that come out and interest in paler stock and overall Market sentiment and the earnings per share hasn't really fluctuated all that much so it's one of the more interesting stock with valuation changing frequently and if you've been following my channel you'll notice I've upgraded and downgraded paler stock from a buy to a hold to a borderline several times because of that volatile stock price disconnecting from the earnings per share so when the stock price moves higher without a subsequent increase in earnings per share it makes the stock more expensive on valuation terms and so I've been changing my recommendation for paler stock multiple times since I began covering the stock several years ago now another thing I'm going to need to make my stock price prediction is the forward PE ratio currently palente forward PE ratio is at 6526 and it's been improving it's been increasing over the last year I would say if I give you a shorter time frame you can see the forward PE of 65 is is on the higher end of this valuation metric going back to July of 2023 I also need the current stock price paler is currently trading at a price of $25 82 cents as of this recording so now that we have our inputs for our valuation model let's go ahead and make our stock price prediction so if earnings per share stays on Pace for 39 Cents by 2025 and the forward PE ratio stays at 65.2 six then the stock price could end the year at $25.45 which would be right about where it's trading at today at $282 so for the stock price to increase either the earnings per share for 2025 have to increase or the forward PE multiple has to increase and if the forward PE multiple increases to 75 then the stock price could rise to $29.25 however the forward PE multiple could decrease and if it does decrease to 50 the stock price could fall to $19.50 and if the forward PE were to fall to 45 the stock price could fall to $17.55 this forward PE of 45 I've been noticing has been a rough bottom for palente teers stock valuation going back a couple of years now ever since I've been following paler stock it hasn't been a publicly traded stock for that many years but I've been following it ever since it's been public it rarely Falls below a forward PE of 45 it seems as though Market participants when they see paler stock trading at a forward PE of 45 they see that as a bargain valuation and they jump in to buy the stock and we can observe that here if you look at over the last year palente forward PE ratio you can see it's FL traded between uh little above 40 and a little above 65 you see it's traded in this range for the last year every time it's been hitting this low of around 45 it jumps right back up and these are the moments where I've upgraded paler stock to a buy or a borderline buy is when that forward PE approaches those uh low to mid-40s is when I've felt like paler stock is also a good good value and sure enough you know several times it's been hitting these bottoms and then bouncing back quickly off of those lows an interesting observation to be sure where do I think is the most likely scenario here well I think somewhere in between the forward PE of 65 to 75 is a reasonable expectation for paler stock by the end of 2024 and if I was to pick a range for the stock price I would say between $27 per share and $29 per share uh that is not very much upside from the current stock price of around $26 per share a little bit more than 10% upside here for paler stock and it's because the valuation is already stretched trading at a forward price to earnings of 65 the company does have excellent prospects its latest AIP boot camps are working very well it's signing a increasing percentage of contracts with businesses which is the next leg of growth for paler stock it already has a great position with government entities it's making great traction there but the area it was a little bit slow on growing was businesses and now it's accelerating growth in that segment which is something I've been looking for from palente here it's now doing really well in that segment given those boot camps it's the best-in-class service the only reason it hasn't gained more traction with business is because the price is so expensive and businesses were unsure of the value that paler provides but now with the boot camps businesses can see the value paler provides and now they're more interested in purchasing and paying that high price because they know what they're getting in return so that's one scenario that's lifting paler valuation is the higher adoption from businesses and that's lifting the sentiment for growth because that's the next leg you have only a limited amount of governments worldwide and government institutions there is much more businesses worldwide so that's a much larger opportunity for Palante here so don't forget to get those 15 free Stocks by using my mumo link below
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