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I just took the biggest Bitcoin trade that I have taken in years. Where is it? $4.1 million short on Bitcoin right now. Not even with a decent entry. I mean, the entry's not terrible, but it's not amazing. I could have timed that so much better. I woke up, saw the price of Bitcoin was crashing down, read an article about Michael Berry, and decided, "Well, you know what we should do today?
We should continue with the plan and go short." 4:00 in the morning, TMG logic is, well, the Wyckoff accumulation pattern. We're at the peak right now of that pattern uh around that point where you'd expect the next big leg down to happen somewhere to around here. That level being to around $40,000.
Naturally, I want to get into this trade early. That comes with risk. It's not free taking risk. We've lost about $12,000 so far. [screaming] But when I show you what I read this morning, maybe you'll understand why I'm doing what I'm doing. I don't think I will. Because although Bitcoin cleared the CME gap yesterday, and although the current price of Bitcoin sits along that red line there, and it's kind of looking very likely that we hit peak levels up here around $88,000.
That's the peak range of liquidity right now. I did just open a 51 Bitcoin short, and I need to explain why. So, if you're considering taking a Bitcoin trade soon, drop a like on this video so I show up in your algorithm more often, and make sure that you subscribe to the channel. Turn on them channel notifications, and let's crack on.
So, anyway, last night couldn't get out of my head this article that I told you about in yesterday's video about Michael Berry saying this market today feels like the last months of the 1999 and 2000 bubble. This is an article that was published on Friday, May the 8th. So, last weekend. So, I decided to check out Michael Berry's Substack, of which you've got to pay $50 to access Michael Berry's Substack.
But I paid it, and now I've got access. And it turned out on May the 11th, he made an update to this article here. And it is quite a fascinating update, and I'm going to go through it in full detail with you. He is the man that they based The Big Short film off of. He says, "I got it right in 2000. I got it right in 2007.
I got it right in 2019. I called the meme stock crash in mid-2021 and I called the bank run in 2023. But, what he's saying right now is the Nasdaq 100 is going to do a complete reversal. And he goes on to show a bunch of charts from back in the day in the dot-com bubble and what it looked like. And he says that you are somewhere along that slope there.
He then shows this on a few other different charts like the Roaring Twenties back in 1920 where he says you are here. that in the 2007 crash it went on to make barely new highs and then ultimately collapsed and that's kind of where we sit right now. I mean, let me just use Nvidia's stock price as an example of this.
It's made a barely new high. We could probably even plot that along this line somewhere and plot a level of resistance and an ultimate topping on Nvidia stock price of potentially $236 give or take. Now, given that the current price is 219, what Michael Burry is saying is that's just not worth it. Why are you trying to profit off that when that's the real profit?
In the mid-1970s, Middle East oil crisis, a complete market reversal on the second three inflationary waves. He says, "Look, we are here within this cycle and the price goes down." He does this a bunch more times. But, what he says here, and it gets pretty interesting, is this past week the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hit a new high near vertical fashion.
Yellow is us today on this chart here and white is the run up to the market peak in 2000. He says, "That's what the market looks like now and that's the run up to the very peak before it eventually crashed and came all the way back down again." So, Michael Burry's words of advice here are, "Even if it seems there is more time to run up, anyone lucky enough to be riding these parabolic moves by not selling is betting on one's own ability to jump [clears throat] off at near the top." And speaking from experience here, I've balls'd it up so many times in my life trying to jump off at the top.
So, I I'm sure that you have as well. It's impossible. Don't try and jump off at the top. Try and get in when prices are cheap and try and get out when prices are high. When prices look high, try and bet the prices are going to go down. And when prices look low, try and bet the prices are going to go.
That's the only really best way to approach the markets and that also involves not having any emotion towards things. It's actually something that I've been working on a lot for myself. It's a skill that I've developed over years and we actually train people one-to-one training of for trading coaching.
There'll be a link to that in today's video description. It'll say one-to-one training chip coaching. If you're interested, it's a 3-month long course. There's a bunch of different modules to it, but it's one-to-one taught to you. So if you ever wanted access to that, then check it out. Link in the video description.
Anyway, he goes on within this piece of text to say, "Back then, nearing the last stages of the tech media telecom bubble, the predominant technology stock narrative had run many companies up very high for many years. But, the narrative had somehow skipped over the component makers, the DRAM companies, the semiconductor equipment manufacturers, and and others that should have been benefiting from the bubble.
But in the very last stage of the bubble, those companies were swept into the narrative and their stocks rocketed higher. Think Intel, think SanDisk, think any kind of computer hardware manufacturer that's experiencing a shortage. But back in 2000, and this is the example that Michael Berry gives, Samsung Electronics, Applied Materials, and JDS Uniphase had a huge run-up towards the very back end of March 2000.
And that is the chart what it looked like back then. The same exact stocks look like this now. These charts look the same. But you can see down here, 2026. The year 2026 years difference, but an identical chart. He says, "We are witnessing history in the stock market and this is not a good thing. Almost no tech stock, and not even any bombed-out software stocks are inexpensive.
Everything is expensive right now." And then Michael Berry goes on to use this chart here to explain that in essence, Wall Street may be overstating by more than 50% the earnings at the fastest growing and most highly valued companies. The future write-downs, uh such as Nvidia's growing contracts with TSMC, and over $100 billion of capacity at TSMC.
The exact same thing happened in 2001 and 2002 where Cisco wrote down years of its best earnings when it had to write off the same types of contracts with its suppliers. And then he basically goes, "Now is the time to consider taking profits. It's very good time to reject greed in the market." He then goes on to explain that I am holding a significant leverage short position against a portfolio of companies that I find depressed and cheap as I did in the year 2000.
If you see your stocks going parabolic, reduce just basically dump. We are in cash accumulation season. And the thing about cash accumulation season is that's the point in the chart where the chart's gone like that already and then it goes like that. That's the accumulation part and then you have a huge crash down.
And the thing about these crashes is they come out of nowhere. In the year 2000, there was no catalyst. In 2007, an all-time high bull trap. And in 2019-2029, there was no proximate cause and no catalyst. So, is this a delusional decision or is it an intelligent decision? You let me know in the comment section.
But I have now taken the biggest trade I've taken in years at this point, a $4 million short position. We'll see how it plays out. If it loses, it loses. I'm not going to start sweating on this because I know for a fact I'm either going to catch it huge to the downside or I'll catch it huge to the upside.
I personally don't really care. I'd probably prefer it to go down based off of I am in a short position and I want to buy more Bitcoin around $40,000. It'd be quite nice. And just to check in here on a zoomed-in version of the Wyckoff. The Wyckoff accumulation pattern topped around here. If we are to follow the Wyckoff accumulation pattern within the next 1 to 2 days, we need to start making a move back to the downside or at least start retesting some of this support level.
And I think at bare minimum, I'm going to get a decent cash-out opportunity somewhere along this line here and this line here intersecting. I would expect at least a drawdown on the price to maybe as low as about $79,700. But really best-case scenario for me here would be $77,600. And the point at which Bitcoin's price will break down is if it loses the $77,600 level, it'll drop back into the major range of liquidity here.
And at that point, it'll probably just accelerate and go down even faster, even quicker, and just even more painfully. Really depressing. We can validate this by the fact that if we look here at the one-week Bitcoin liquidation heat map, we can see that we yes, we've got a huge range of liquidity above, we've got a huge range of liquidity below.
There is no key drivers with any of this suggesting that we need to go in either direction. And we can see a very similar setup over on Ethereum. But, Ethereum looks slightly better being there's a huge level of liquidations here. But, the thing is, that could be short positions that have been entering throughout this period of accumulation here at the top.
People have been accumulating short positions. Those could be high-leverage short positions that would be liquidated should the price go into that range. But, if momentum is not on the side of the bulls, then that's going to just be some very profitable short positions that will cash out somewhere down here.
Another core reason as to why I went short this morning is because we noticed again open interest dropping off on Bitcoin. These are big drop-offs. This is a multi-billion-dollar drop-off this morning from Well, not multi-billion, but 26.25 down to 25.9. That's $300 million drop in interest just this morning, causing the price to just blip.
And you know what's more likely? What's more likely? Path of most pain or it all goes well? I suppose on the flip side, you could say that I'm going to experience a lot of pain soon. But, we'll see. I'm not going to lose a ton. Worst case scenario, I'll lose 30, 40K, something like that, and I forget to close the trade on time.
Now, of course, if you are interested in trading, do check out Weeks. You'll find a link for Weeks in the video description. But, also make sure you check out Ubit. I'm currently trading here on Ubit. You'll find a link for Ubit. You'll have never heard of it. But, if you use the link for Ubit in today's video description, they're giving every single person that signs up on that link $1,000 for free trading.
You can literally sign up, take the free trade, no deposit required. We'll give you a $1,000 free trade for just signing up and making an account. I'm also going to make a tutorial on how you can do that for those of you that are completely new to this. But, to be fair, I think it's been the same 17 people watching now for the past 5 years.
So, I think you all understand. It's free money waiting for you on that exchange. Check it out. Just before we head out for today, this is the peak range of liquidity on Ethereum price right now. You can see that we are at a very contentious level. It is a level that we spent a lot of time at and around in the past.
And it's a level that we continue to get attracted back towards. It's fascinating why this Look at Solana versus Bitcoin. Solana versus Bitcoin did just start easing off a little bit, losing half a percent against Bitcoin so far today. But, the price of Solana, however, although it looks pretty terrible on that, has been feeling a lot nicer in my portfolio recently cuz we're back up at $96, which actually feels quite nice.
Which is another reason why I feel quite bearish. So, on that note, are you bullish or bearish? Let me know. Comment section below. Drop a like on the video. I really appreciate it. If you could just everybody press the like button, it'd be fantastic. Check out the links and information in the video description for Ubit.
They'll give you a $1,000 free trade. If you want one-to-one coaching, link in the video description as well. See you in a bit. Have a nice day. Ciao.
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