저자: 미상 · 외국인
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AVGO 30분봉 기준 20·50 EMA 이탈 우려 속 단기 조정 가능성을 제시. 1650달러 지지 확인 시 분할 매수 전략을 제시하고, 1500달러 부근 손절 및 1765·1850달러 상단 저항을 언급. 과매수 지표 해소를 위해 가격 조정이 필요하다는 견해.
다듬은 글
kind of finished the week uh trading kind of trading a bit sideways um but this was preceded by periods of relatively strong movements to the top side um and I do uh think that this Falls in line with um our broader assumptions here that uh we are looking at uh another test of higher prices um but there are a couple of signals here that we need to watch uh to the downside because there are a couple of red flags here that uh could cause some concern for the Bulls um so I think that we should we should take a look at these here um currently you know as we can see we are trading above the entire moving average cluster uh this is the 30 minute chart so here we have the the yellow line we have the 20 period EMA orange would be 50 period uh purple line would would be the 100 period and the the Blue Line would be the 200 day uh the 200 period exponential moving average um so this would be the average of the prior 200 candles uh trading periods so um over overall you know that is a bullish signal uh but it does look like we're starting to grind through this this 20 20 period EMA a bit um it's not really clear that we're going to be able to sustain this level because we did see uh a 30 minute close uh below this level so that is a bit of a bit of a concern um uh so if we lose if we lose the 20 um you know most likely would we would probably move to the 50 as well um I would expect if we do see support from there I would expect it to come in closer to, 1650 uh which is where kind of a resistance turn support level uh rests as well as the 1 line here kind of matches up pretty well um overall and it's not it's not an exact uh movement here but you know if if we're looking at the the price highs from uh July 1st uh we can see that this comes in at roughly 16477 so just below 1650 um and then we can see that the uh 200 period sorry the 100 period EMA uh comes in just above 1652 so you know roughly 1650 is where I would refer to this area because we do have these two these two factors kind of working together and likely to generate some support uh for this stock if we do start to see dips here um overall you know the next level of resistance does come in at the let's get get an exact number here the July 5th highs came in at 1765 um so this will this will be the level to the top side um and then if we do break here the next Target to the upside really is the all-time highs so we would expect us to see a fairly substantial move higher um at that point that would be a move back above 1850 uh if that were to occur um but I do think that if we if we lose both the 20 period EMA and the 50 period EMA um you know the kind of final Line in the Sand here is this 1650 level and then if this does occur to the downside I would expect to start to see some moves uh lower and there are some reasons to believe that this might be the case um okay so in particular we can point to um the fact that uh you know the 1765 High uh really did create a heavily overbought uh trading condition uh for AVG uh we were actually massively um overbought at that point we we were approaching the 90 level uh which which represents uh you know the extreme overbought territory uh above 70 is overbought but above 90 would be extremely overbought um so as we can see like this is a full you know this turns green uh when it's overbought um and this did create a condition where share prices really did did need to to reverse a bit um you know and at least consolidate so that this indicator reading can kind of work itself out uh as that happened we can see that this upward Trend and momentum broke to the downside so uh overall you know this is why it really wouldn't surprise me to lose a couple of a couple of these moving averages um as far as upcoming support levels are concerned um we're already kind of grinding through this 20 period and as I said we did we did see a half hour close below that level um so that is that is a warning signal um and it does suggest that you know we could be in store for some weakness here uh before we turn higher once again uh So currently you know overall you know this is still this is still a bullish situation um you know we haven't really retraced much of this dominant price move um if we're looking at the lows that were generated this would be the 3r of June uh this would be just above 1300 1303 roughly um and highs came in as I said just above 1850 so this be 1851 uh this price high was generated uh this would be June 18th would be that would would be that trading period so if we're looking at that as the dominant price move uh we can see that we already have uh retraced half of that move and we're starting to move higher so you know the upside scenario here is is completely plausible I mean there's really nothing stopping FR this stock uh from continuing to move higher and retesting those prior all-time highs except for this uh overbought indicator condition um as we can see you know we really didn't re need to reach price levels that were very high um in order to reach uh territory in the indicator reading that was that was approaching extremely overbought territory so that is a bit worrisome because um you know we it looks here um as though um the stock can trade just a little bit High higher and and pretty quickly uh become overbought we're we're we're trading in those types of conditions at the moment um so that that is a concern um because it does suggest that the stock is going to need to see a longer longer period of either downside correction or at least sideways consolidation um you know so that this this would allow the indicator conditions to kind of work themselves off a bit um and then would it would make it much easier for the stock uh to Rally to higher price without reaching overbought territory um so there are some factors that need to be watched here um you know as I said um you know we are we are uh creating support zones at higher and higher levels um if we did for for example if we did lose the 1650 level um I would expect prices to be contained you know further downside to be contained to less than uh less than $100 in total selling pressure um I would I would really be looking at the the uh the 16 uh the 1565 level um as the next level of support um and then this would represent a fairly strong buying opportunity if we were to see this level uh trade once again uh because from there you know the real downside risk would really come in at the um 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of this dominant price move um which would come in just above 1500 so roughly 1512 1510 um and then below there you've got the psychological level at at at uh, 1500 so if you wanted to kind of structure a trade here um maybe with stop losses just below the $1500 level I think that would make a lot of sense um so you know roughly buying you know entering into partial position uh maybe half of a position or a third of a position uh at roughly 1650 um another half of a position or a third of a position uh at roughly U 1565 um and then if you were thirds you could buy just before reaching you know roughly 1520 something like that like just before that 1510 level um and then probably stop out the entire trade below 1500 um that that's that's the type of trading scenario that would make sense in a context like this um so but in order for that to occur uh we would need to see prices drift a bit lower um so that this indicator reading can kind of work itself off and allow allow share prices to move higher in a in a more forceful manner uh
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