저자: Kevin · 외국인
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인플레이션 둔화가 구조적 항목(보험·임대료)에서 정체되어 연준이 금리 인하를 늦추거나 줄일 것이라 주장. 연준 점도표 상향 가능성과 고금리 장기화를 근거로 제시. 테슬라는 장기 전망은 긍정적이나 단기적으로 정치 리스크(머스크), X 부채 재융자, 레드씨 물류 비용, 가이던스 하향 우려로 숏 포지션을 취함. 176달러 이탈 후 추가 하락 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here today I'm going short Tesla I really hate to say that and it breaks my heart I also feel stabbed in the back because that might be what you're feeling you might feel like wait Kevin how could you do that you love Tesla and that's true I do you know that but I feel stabbed in the back and a lot of it doesn't even have to do with Tesla has to do with what I think the Federal Reserve is about to do to us I don't think people are paying attention to it in this video I'm going to explain it's not good so hear me out while I know you might think oh this is short-term minded short-term trade you're right it is it is a short-term trade you're right I love Tesla I love Optimus and the hopium of the long long term but the short term well let's just put it this way hear this out first of all we need to look at inflation we all know this there's something known as the CPI U and then the core CPI U this gives you a slightly different non seasonally adjusted look at consumer prices and one of the things that's really fascinating about this particular chart here is look at the rate of decline from July of last or July of 2022 we basically saw CPI come straight down which is fantastic that's great inflation was proving to be transitory the blip was here and it would go away however progress on the decline of CPI has faltered it's substantially slowed it's one of the reasons drum recently has stopped referring to the three and six-month Trends because he's worried that the 12month Trends on inflation are stagnating and he's not wrong now this is not the core CPI measure the core CPI measure gives us a little bit of a different look it suggests that inflation is substantially coming down but that that rate of decline has really slowed somewhat similarly if you don't look closely at this it looks like hey but it's declining we're good right not so fast let's do some very very simple math look at the decline between September 20th so that would be right around uh September 22 that is so September 2022 right around here this peak right here September 22 to September of 2023 you went from a number of 6.64 down to a number right here a 4.1 that's roughly a 2.5% decline that's as we sort of lap the year-over-year high fing figures okay that works out to a decline of 21 basis points per month well the decline from September 2023 to February 2024 which is a 6month period right September October November December January February I know I had to count like six months yeah 6 months okay we have only seen inflation decline approximately half of a percent and I'm being generous it's really more like 44 basis points or so so that's that's generous uh 44 48 right around there so call it half okay we're going to round in favor of more of a decline well half a percent decline divided by six is only a six basis point decline per month in other words from here to here we were declining at a rate of 21 basis points per month boom boom boom boom boom now we're in we're seeing inflation go down at onethird the rate so in other words inflation is going down way way slower and then of course we ask ourselves wait a minute Kevin how could this be because every earnings call that we look at we see inflation plummeting I talk about it all the freaking time inflation plummeting plummeting but all the earnings calls but then I found the error in my ways think about it we look at earnings for companies like cocacola Nike Lululemon Apple Tesla all the fun things in our life the things that we touch and feel around us but what do we not look at earnings calls for frequently and maybe we should be well things that relate to structural deflation versus the cyclicals now that's a complicated word but think of this cyclical is just stuff that goes up and down with the market cycle right so us spending on consumer discretionarily get into a tightening cycle those tend to see more deflation and those have seen a lot of deflation there is no doubting that there has been a lot of deflation in those areas in fact here's a chart that shows you cyclical deflation uh essentially or I should say inflation it's technically still inflation but it's over here at like 4% see that white line how the cyclical inflation has plummeted but what about structural inflation which are going to be the non-fund things that we don't really look at earnings calls that much for like insurance companies for health insurance medical care services Hospital earnings reports or rent lockin effects those are structural and unfortunately structural cpis fall has stalled and that's a problem and so in just one week we get the Federal Reserve who is going to provide us a new summary of economic projections and in this summary of economic projections they're going to have to decide hey do we have an unemployment situation that calls for rate cuts no do we have a situation where Financial conditions have gotten so tight that we need to imply loosening for this fed meeting I don't know let's go look at Goldman Sachs uh the Goldman Sachs Financial conditions index let's pop on over here there it is Goldman Sachs Financial conditions index what do we see oh Financial conditions are as low as they were in 2015 2015 and 14 I mean for a brief moment over there at the end of 2018 Financial conditions are looser today than what they were at the end of 2018 and and of course going back to 20145 is more relevant so why is the Fed going to come loosen Financial conditions next week well certainly not to help unemployment labor market is is still pretty dang tight in fact this morning we were looking at Goldman Sachs and TS Lombard analysis on the labor market and what do we find the suggestion that the labor market might seem like it's loosening but TS Lombard says no it's not the only reason we're seeing the households report go negative is potentially because you're seeing self-employed people get jobs because the jobs Market is so good and small business World ain't which sucks so in other words it it's again those medium and large businesses that are collecting all the employees they can because business is actually good for them but most self-employed people are like I don't know the Market's kind of sucking or most people having to go buy groceries or normal things in their life are like I don't know man this this economy kind of sucks it's the big boys making all the money off all their 5% interest rate yields on cash they're making all the money that AI plays so what do you have well you don't have a situation where you exigent exigent need to cut rates for unemployment you certainly don't need to imply doish to loosen Financial conditions because really if you loosen Financial conditions anymore oops wrong chart if you Lo loosen Financial conditions any more than this you're probably just going to reiterate that stagnating of structural inflation that's High I mean I'll give you an example structural inflation just so you can kind of try to internalize this a little more because it is a little tricky when Market rents go up what do you think your landlord does to your rent they jack up your rent right that's why they're movements for rent control to stop rents from going up when Market rents go up well technically the free market when rents go up your rent should go up technically not saying we like it when rent goes up but that's technically what should happen Okay so what happens when Market rents decline well in order for you to capture that rent decline you have two choices your landlord can reduce your rent good luck with that or you can move but the reality is only about 3% of households move every every single year so most people are going to get stuck with structurally higher rent than what Market rents actually are your rent will be here Market rents will be here and then you'll be like landlord I'm going to move and the landlord's going to be like go for it and then you're going to go is it really worth it I'll just pay the rent and stay because nobody wants to move that is a form of keeping structural inflation higher so everybody bags on the owner's equivalent rents you know and the way CPI measures rents but I think it was Morgan Stanley that got me thinking about this over the last few weeks I'm like wait a minute rent realization at lower levels usually some landlords will lower rent the good ones uh but rent realization usually only occurs when people move that's hard if anything if people are going to move it might be a good time for those Furniture stocks look at what William Sonoma did to Restoration Hardware and warfare today those suckers are sitting at like 1.2 pegs with like 40% growth rates projected those are sexy right now low valuations because people are thinking oh nobody's moving because rates are so high so you know have those bottomed out who knows but the point is the Federal Reserve is not looking at necessary loosening in fact the Federal Reserve has bluntly told us they are more interested in looking at quantitative tightening that is softening their tightening which is another way of easing then potentially reducing rates too significantly bosk went as far as saying maybe we'll cut rates once in the third quarter and then not again because see rates are this lever that let you protect an economy that goes into a recession but if there's no recession why cut rates in fact there's an argument to be made that the FED doesn't even have to cut rates at all this year in fact if you look at another source from the Atlanta fed which I hate to say it but the St Louis Fred the St Louis Federal Reserve retweeted this Atlanta fed chart talking about sticky inflation this was not good so here's a sticky inflation chart and if I go over here and I remove the uh non-sticky so let's go ahead and reset this chart there we go you can see sticky inflation is sitting over here at 4.4 4.9 4.8% it's been stuck there for a while the rate of decline has slow just like we saw in CPI CPI core and it's twice what it used to be for the sticky categories insurances rents right the things that are slower to fall the structural things yes eventually they'll fall great fantastic maybe eventually something will break but doesn't seem like that's near and when it is you could always move back into interest rate sensitive stocks right the bigger problem that you really want to focus on right now in my opinion is this this uh let me uh let me do this there we go okay the bigger thing that you want to focus on is this chart this chart right here is the December summary of economic projections December good old December you know what December says December says oh yeah yeah rate Cuts yeah rate Cuts can happen in fact in this Decembjected that by the end of 2024 we would have rates at 4.6% and at the end of next year 3.6 then 2.9 in 2026 then 2.5 in the long term now there are a few things that make me very nervous about this this is a signaling tool the Federal Reserve does not need to Signal something that is actually going to happen they use it as a messaging tool they could totally signal right hikes in theory and then if poop hits the fan turn around and cut they could always do that so this is manipulation now I've gotten a little pissed about the Federal Reserve because I feel like I got lied to now I'm not blaming the fed I'm not going to be one of those folks that are going to be like you know what I made a mistake I lost money in Tesla over the last year because the FED lied to me no I made a choice I have to bear the responsibilities of that Choice that's me I'm a big boy I take responsibility it was my fault but something that has contributed to my realization that shisa the FED is foolish is that in 2019 they passed a 4-year monetary framework called flexible average inflation targeting nicknamed fate I should have known it was from when I heard that the nickname was fate because it's too good to be true or maybe I I don't even whatever well jpow rolled on that last week in Congress suggesting yeah we only did that to try to increase inflation expectations because we were running below Target now we're running above Target so we don't really need flexible average inflation targeting anymore oh fantastic thanks JP that's because back then we were sitting at 1.7 1.8 on the 5year break even inflation rate now we're sitting at 2.42 we got to bring that sucker down cuz we're anchoring too high so the FED needs to hawk more how do you think they're going to Hawk folks I'll tell you exactly how they're going to Hawk they're going to use this messaging tool and they have two of these tools coming up okay look they get to Hawk in March then they're going to pause in May so that you hawk right here see what happens and then wait and see then pause and then what happens June comes around you get another Hawk opportunity why because this is an SCP meeting and this is an SCP meeting this is not an SCP meeting and then that would make sense if we have a rate cut maybe you cut in July you've got four meetings uh you know than than to cut rates if you really wanted to but I don't think this March summary of economic projections is going to be beautiful why well because the first thing that they're going to have to do is they're probably going to have to raise their core PC targets based on movements and like the stickiness that we've seen that's not great but in addition to that see this fed funds rate over here at the bottom that is what I'm going to pay attention to as subject to the most amount of change that makes me nervous why does it make me nervous well because the FED is very simply going to look at this chart right here this is the Nick T shared on ec.com six and three month charts Rising again for pce core consumer price index oh this is actually CPI Nick T tweets both of these charts PC and CPI versions but anyway we see that Resurgence in the 3 and six it'll move the 12 and that in my opinion will necessitate Drome Powell and the board coming in here and Hawking this number I'm going to give you my projections that number is not going to be 4.6 it's certainly not going to go down there's no way it goes down there's no way they price in more Cuts in my opinion I could be wrong I'm just a human I make mistakes too but I I just want to be honest with my audience and and and everybody that that you know follows me you don't have to listen to me you know I'm not your personal financial adviser you know that I just try to share my perspective with you I think I'm really good at real estate uh I think I'm good at identifying potential issues how to trade around them that's a lot harder and ultimately how to trade around them I think is up to everybody else but I mean remember back in January of 2022 everybody thought I was crazy for selling and that was the right move again I didn't trade around it perfectly but it was the right move I was saying hey I think you should go to cash because what'll happen is as everything gets cheaper your cash will actually gain value and everybody's like that's stupid why would you want to go to cash in inflation environment I'm like because your cash will be more valuable because everything else is going down in value right asset prices it depends what you're buying if you're buying groceries cash was trash if you're buying stocks cash was gold so it it's all relative but anyway uh Federal Reserve rate I think this is going up I think we're going to go from 46 to 48 maybe honestly even 0 but I'm just going to be generous here I think they give us a slight bump here you go 48 that basically takes us from three Cuts is going to become two cuts and that's going to be a maybe they might even in may drop that to one cut depending on how the economy work uh you know functions right uh so we can even look at another one just to kind of see how things are going right now go to the U Atlanta fed real GDP now uh GDP now is sitting at 22% so we're definitely above Trend and if we look at uh this is the current projection right here next projection comes out tomorrow but we're up here at 2 and a half% still above the Blue Chip consensus anyway okay so now we're going to jump in right here and it's not just this year that matters folks what else is it well I think next year that 36 they're going to have a four handled on this possibly honestly a 41 that means we're going to have high rates above 4% for the next 18 months and that's just this projection it could get even worse this right here this 29 handle that's probably going to be like a 35 I I I don't and mostly because I think they're going to come up here and this change in GDP they're going to kill this 14 they're gonna make this like probably 1.9 honestly is probably what they'll go with and I wouldn't be surprised if they add four to five basis points on all of these as well and you're something like this so hotter economy for longer again a recession can destroy all of this but you protect from the scenario of a recession by having more latitude to cut rates one of the problems with being at the the um effective lower bound they call the elb is you can't cut rates anymore you have to go to negative rates and that's a problem being at 5% is like glorious it's a ballast it's a tool to protect the Federal Reserve if things actually break but things actually are not breaking right now now I know people like but cin consumer debts are so high come on man come on like are like you have to look at these charts you can't keep lying to yourself look at this household Debt Service payments as a percentage of personal disposable income bro we're lower than where we were the entire decade before the pandemic we're nowhere near the level of debt that we used to be at in terms of uh like a relativity to income right same I mean I know the government uh debt has exploded but same thing I mean just type it in yourself you can look it up too uh government uh interest payments percent of GDP it's skyrocketed don't get me wrong interest as a percentage of GDP it's skyrocketed it's high but again it's still lower than where we were in the 90s now it's not sustainable forever don't get me wrong but in the '90s we had a soft Landing over here you know what I mean so so like this still got quite a lot of latitude to go you know it took it from here to here it took two years to get this extra percent so the rollover is slow and you could always refinance so to speak in the future by issuing new debt when rates are lower uh government spending is a disaster this video isn't about government spending I think the government is mostly ineffective but the point of this is just more practical for for personal allocations like this is I think what we got coming in a week from today this is a problem so I think when we look at the dot plots uh we're going to get basically a ruggan like you're going to take all of this if this is the trend right if that's the trend of the hot dog so to speak I think the hot dog goes like right here maybe not necessarily so high but but it it it the whole thing certainly moves up something like this to where you're probably something more like there you go something like that kind of hot dog there you go so the whole hot dog moves up of dots mostly because so far the economy has not given a hoot about interest rates one of the contributing factors to this by the way was inflation yesterday we had inflation report that was hot yesterday and guess what happened stock market didn't care tech stocks rallied specifically chip stocks why because they're like immune to interest rates the higher interest rates go they're the opposite of interest rate sensitive they're like interest rate sensitive to the positive side the higher rates go the more money they make on their cash the more they get to spend Apple Microsoft Google these are all cash hoarders Nvidia uh and they just make more money like the rich just get richer the longer rates stay higher everybody else gets screwed Dollar General the dollar store gets screwed people buying groceries get screwed renters get screwed people who want to buy a home get screwed people who want to buy a new car get screwed it's not good notice so far I haven't talked really at all about Tesla because this this doesn't have to do with my long-term thesis for Tesla longterm I think Tesla's a great company I think they're doing a great thing for the world I think EES are here to stay for the long term I know I know a lot of people disagree with me on that but I think they're here to stay but what you have in the near term is the political weight of Elon Musk going from basically CEO at Tesla to CEO of Twitter to now CEO of border patrol so you have the political weight of that uh you have a real Twitter financing risk X financing risk people don't realize this but you could look this up here we'll just type into Google so you could see it for yourself okay people don't realize this yet if you don't realize this yet it's it's okay but I want you to see it Elon Musk negotiating thatx Twitter acquisition Morgan Stanley she's within like the last week or two uh let's see here uh Banks stuck with X debt held refinancing talks with Elon on 122.5 billion of debt March 4th Morgan Stanley was counting on 150 million in Twitter deal fees I don't really know what what the scoop is on this uh but uh estimated fees could reach $150 million or more blah blah blah instead the deal has turned into something of a dud for the bank they loaned the $ 122.5 billion blah blah blah this is all behind a pay wall I don't really care but but the point here is that if Elon has to pick up more liquidity where's he going to pick it up from Tesla so you have a liquidity risk and then you also have the stock C plan risk like what's the board going to do Robin on the board just sold like $16 million of Tesla shares then you have the risk of lower margin uh and a lot of people like even the fed's beige book they're like oh we're not really seeing an impact from the disruption in the Red Sea well guess who does get impacted by the Red Sea like literally everything has just been designed to take Tesla and re it Tesla gets affected by the Red Sea because their shipments from China have to go and and uh the South China Sea have to go through the Red Sea to get up to the German gigafactory well now they got to go all the way around it takes 30% longer double the cost for free great on top of that you're getting more incentives more incentives on America 5k supercharging Miles uh cybertruck shareholder incentives that's not a gift that's to try to finally motivate some more people to spend 100 Grand on a truck you know is going to be worth like 70 or 60 a year from now and so now this doesn't even have to do with the Wells Fargo uh you know downgrade who cares all the analysts they just downgrade whichever way the stock is going so I don't really care about that but there is a real risk of Wall Street still has not updated still today has not updated the consensus estimate because it takes long for these analysts all to come in with a new update they still haven't updated uh EPS projections you're still sitting at $3 okay well that's based on 490,000 deliveries in q1 Troy test like thinks we're going to come in like 410,000 if we come in at 420 we're still negative year-over-year what if we're negative next year as well well I don't know it's all speculation but the whole point is that between now and the end of next year the Tailwind of rates coming down probably isn't going to happen as quickly as we thought and it's entirely possible that maybe maybe all of a sudden rates come down quicker than we thought and you know what then I'll be right back to buying and if I have to buy at $200 because you know you sold some in the 170s or what oh well so be it it it is worth not getting screwed with this sucker going down I hate to say it but we are we are right now under the 175 is 176 FIB you know where the next stop is on this sucker right it's not good you could pray you can pray that the next stop is over here at like the 148 but that's a that's not the best trend line okay I got like three or four points of data over here and they're not even that clean so that's a weak trend line you know what is a strong support 101 you how many margin calls are going to happen between now and then I think the Fed B like basically think of Tesla as like this dirty uh coffee stained napkin okay like it has a lot of potential I could unfold it I could go oh I could do a lot of things with this I could make a paper mâché you know I could do a little robot or batteries or maybe a semi TR or whatever but what are we going to do in the meantime with this well we're going to go in over here and go Red Sea oh interest rates uh oh nm3 and solar oh uh what you know what else Elon politics oh Twitter financing oh uh the you know lawsuits around the comp plan oh board selling oh no guidance oh okay what about margin oh okay look fsd2 by the way I got the latest updates better finally finally like I think of it as net better but are people going to pay 12K for it no so what else are we getting discounts more discounts more discounts the cybertruck list like everybody I talked to who's ordered a cyber truck early on they've already gotten their invite and they're like yeah I'm going to pass for now so you you end up having this like hopium thing but it really just looks like uh and again you know I'm not trying to be emotional here I'm just saying I think it's unfortunate the situation Tesla is in and uh I don't think all of the bad is priced in yet so unfortunately I think it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better so that's just my thesis and a lot of it again is driven by the fed the fed the fed the Fed so I'm not looking forward to a week from today and you know what if I'm wrong no problem but being wrong and the stock going up fantastic good other people H great being wrong and stock going down that could hurt a lot of people more there are a lot of people who rely on their their Tesla Investments for their businesses for their household finances whatever you shouldn't and you definitely shouldn't I'm not saying you should I'm just saying there are a lot of people who are there are also a lot of people on margin on this sucker so breaking this 176 level today
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