저자: CouchInvestor · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아 1분기 실적은 매출·EPS 등 대부분 컨센서스를 상회했으나 2분기 가이던스(약 81억 달러, 시장 기대 84.4억 달러 하회)와 러시아·중국 봉쇄 영향(약 5억 달러 타격)으로 주가가 하락. 데이터센터가 향후 최대 부문이 될 것이며 게이밍은 둔화 전망. 발언자는 고점 대비 약 45% 하락한 현 시점을 펀더멘털 훼손이 아닌 매수 기회로 보고 장기 보유를 권장.
다듬은 글
all right so let's talk about nvidia's quarter it was the most anticipated earnings this week obviously with everything that's going on in the macro economic environment but the focus has been put on nvidia and how they will guide for next quarter obviously we don't get full year numbers but for next quarter so i did the poll earlier today are they going to miss are they going to beat and if they are going to beat with higher guidance or lower guidance well they beat but they lowered guidance now there is a logical explanation there we're going to talk about that in this video if you just want to hear the basic numbers and then just want to skip the whole video so basically they beat on earnings bit on earnings per share most of it yeah great for guidance lord revenue guys because they do expect around 500 million dollars of a hit from the china lockdowns and from russia now they're not selling to russia anymore and russia is about two percent of the company's revenue so that's where they see the hit coming from now with regards to gaming data centers etc if you're interested in that sit back and have a listen now if you do want to support this channel check out the link in the description to receive the top 10 best stocks to buy now or visit food.com for slash couch investor so as always we have this nice little summary here and as i said in my last video preparing for this nvidia earnings report i said the data centers is going to catch up gaming segment sooner rather than later and i am correct gaming is a bit slowing down when compared to data centers see data center is probably going to be their biggest segment by next quarter and then just going to grow each and every quarter and stay the biggest segment for the company in years to come now professional visualization is actually down quarter over quarter which to me was a bit of a surprise but year over year still doubled so that's great well not double doubled but close enough right 372 million now we're 622 i was looking at the 307 before then auto sequentially it's a quarter of a quarter yes it's up a little bit yeah over here it's still down still a very very small segment and really really difficult to predict what will happen with that segment as you can see you would have thought that auto with every major manufacturer out there going into evs autonomous vehicles etc that it would have been growing quite nicely but it's actually been up down up down and then down down down now for oem and others it's also down year over year and quarter over quarter mainly they say we're going to have a look a bit later is because of the cryptocurrency stuff now totally it came in at 8.28 billion dollars and that beat the consensus of 8.12 so a 2.1 percent beat there quite nice for gaming it's a four point six percent beat market expected to three point forty six billion dollars for data centers the market expected three point six billion dollars so they beat on that as well now for professional visualization and auto it actually missed the market expected 632 and for auto 143 so little misses here 1.6 and 3.5 but overall these were the numbers right revenue grew 46 percent year over year and eight percent quarter over quarter gross margin is up 90 basis points year over year and 10 quarter over quarter it also beat the expectations by just 22 basis points now it's at 67.1 percent non-gaap that is operating expenses is up 35 year-over-year operating income is up 55 year-over-year so that's quite nice and net income is up 49 percent year over year 3 quarter over quarter diluted earnings per share of 1.36 and that's also up 49 percent now the estimates were 1.30 cents so a little bit here as well quick note here on the gaming segment because that's a segment that will probably be taking a hit in the later stages this year so as we've seen gaming revenue was up 31 percent year-over-year six percent sequentially now that reflects the year of the year increase reflects higher sales of geforce gpus based on their nvidia amphir architecture the sequential increase was driven by higher sales of geforce gpus for laptops and soc system one chips for game consoles now here comes the cryptocurrency part so their gpus are capable of cryptocurrency mining though they have limited visibility into how much this impacts their overall gpu demand now with the current volatility in the cryptocurrency market such as the recent declines or changes in methods of verifying transactions including proof of work proof of stake can impact demand for our products and our ability to accurately estimate it now if you remember back in 2018 that was exactly the same scenario right we saw this huge huge crypto bull run and then a huge huge crash if you look at the nvidia chart it crashed as well and as i said before the oem and other revenue that's done 52 year-over-year and 18 sequentially the year-over-year decrease was due to a decline in cryptocurrency mining processor which was nominal in the quarter compared with 155 million dollars from a year ago the sequential decrease was driven by lower entry-level notebook gpu sales now quick look at expenses because remember they did have to pay a 1.35 billion dollars acquisition termination charge related to the arm acquisition so that's why you see a huge increase here in gaap operating expenses if you look at the non-gaap operating expenses it's well i won't say only but it's up 35 from a year ago and 11 sequentially and as with most companies these days and as we mentioned in the last video these increases were driven by employee growth compensation related cost and engineering development cost now they also have been successful in hiring this year and expect to slow hiring in the second half of fiscal 2023 as they integrate their new employees basically a nicer way to say we overhire it and we need to stop spending so much on that part of the business as for cash they've got plenty of it 20.34 billion dollars that's up from 12.67 billion dollars a year ago but down quarter over quarter last quarter was 21.21 billion dollars now cash really isn't the problem here cash flow from operation activities was 1.73 billion dollars that's done a little bit but nothing to be worried about here free cash flow was 1.35 billion dollars that's also down from 1.56 billion dollars just a year ago and down from 2.74 billion dollars a quarter ago now during the first quarter of fiscal 2023 nvidia returned 2.1 billion dollars to shareholders in the form of sharing purchases and cash dividends yes nvidia does pay a dividend of just about 4 cents or so so not that much they also said that on may 23rd 2022 the board of directors increased and extended their share repurchase program to repurchase additional common stock to a total of 15 billion dollars through december 2023 now you don't increase if you think your stock is overvalued you do increase when you think your stock is undervalued and now the main reason why the stock is actually down six to seven percent when am i filming this is because of outlook so they expect revenue to come in at point one billion dollars plus mining two percent this includes an estimated reduction of approximately five hundred million dollars rating to russia and ecovic lockdowns in china as mentioned before now the estimates were 8.44 billion dollars so they missed it by around four percent or so as for non-gaap gross margin 67.1 percent that's ahead of expectations so fine on that front but with regards to gross profit operating income and operating margin that's all below distributes estimates all right now a couple of things i've heard on the earnings call i skipped the end of it because well i heard everything i needed to hear now i want to talk about professional visualization my favorite part of it is obviously omniverse now omniverse is run by nvidia's ai and vsai is going to be a huge part of the revenue side of the business for years and years to come yes right now it's still small but the company is extremely extremely confident that this segment nvidia's ai omniverse is going to generate a lot of revenue in the years to come with high margins because remember nvidia used to sell hardware now they're also selling software and software is always with higher margins so as for omniverse here they had a couple of announcements so they announced the omniverse cloud service for instant access to nvidia omniverse i believe they said something like 10 of the top 100 companies around use omniverse today and that number will probably grow in the years to come they also announced that amazon robotics is building ai-enabled digital twins of its warehouses we've talked about that in a couple of videos already on this channel using omniverse enterprise to optimize warehouse design and train more intelligent robotic solutions and now with regards to the lower sell true in gaming and the reduced guidance for next quarter is it a demand problem or is it a supply problem so specifically for gaming they said because with data center they're extremely confident in that they think it's going to grow sequentially as well but the gaming side first up with china it's a demand and supply issue right now for supply obviously with all the lockdowns shipping etc it's a problem manufacturing etc it's an issue now the demand they said is also an issue because with all the lockdowns now people are prioritizing other things government are focusing on other stuff rather than obviously gaming so they said it's supply and demand issue now with russia like i said at the start of this video they're not selling to russia anymore and russia is two percent of the company's revenue so that's why they take a huge hit there so overall to conclude while outlook might be reduced and they're taking a hit they mentioned why there's really no reason to be bearish on nvidia today the stock is down 45 since all-time highs yes it was extremely expensive then if you look at their peers i was in the semiconductor industry super high multiple but then again the reason why these quality companies trade at a higher multiple is because well why would people like to sell quality names just doesn't make sense granted you shouldn't buy companies that are trading at 100 200 time sales etc which aren't growing much but if companies are growing 50 60 70 year over year why the heck not you don't have to jump in completely and finish your position in a day or two build up that position in your portfolio and the long term you'll do just fine and a company like nvidia as you know it's in my second part of the portfolio you can find it on stock.oh it's free to follow and we're going to start a competition pretty soon so you better sign up now it's part of that portfolio because well who doesn't want to own nvidia right and as we see with md data center side of the business is booming there as well and to be honest i don't really see that slowing down anytime soon even with the current inflation recession fears etc good businesses will still perform very very well so nothing to be worried about here i know dominic said game over but it's also play on the gaming side of the business i hope you understand that now if you enjoy this type of videos leave it a thumbs up if you want aren't subscribed check out those two videos and i'll see you all in the next video bye
Comments 0