저자: CouchInvestor · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적 발표(수요일) 전 채용 중단·애널리스트 가격 하향 등 악재성 신호를 짚음. 반도체 섹터 6개월 위험 구간 경고 인용(Louis Miss), Wells Fargo 목표가 370→250달러 인하 소개. 실적 가이던스 약세 시 추가 하락 우려, 강할 경우 양호한 흐름 예상. 본인은 실적 확인 전까지 관망, 장기적으로는 엔비디아 승자 전망.
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all right let's talk about nvidia nvidia is reporting earnings on wednesday after the market closes and you can expect a video coming out a couple of hours after that now last week we had some unusual moves with regards to nvidia because well a couple of days before they report earnings suddenly the stock drops 10 percent it's a bit suspicious don't you think now yes the overall market is down as well but i'm talking about nvidia here particularly year to date it's also down 40 45 or so just like any other huge big tech company or basically any other stock for that matter but seeing those type of moves couple of days before earnings report either means somebody knows something or something has been leaked it's a mix of both actually so the first thing i want to discuss here is this thing right here tech major nvidia goes in for hiring pause offers in process will continue i've got some more information here this is not a freeze it's a pause we were told that leadership wants to take a pause to onboard the thousands of new hires we've recently made the slack message reads now we've seen this with a lot of other big tech companies a lot of companies are just maybe stopping hiring not just pausing but just don't hire anymore some are laying off some of their employees because maybe they over hired last year now with the recession fears high inflation etc cutting costs is probably a must i'll continue here so some guidelines for hiring as mentioned in the message say bars will be raised for the ongoing interviews and only 10 percent of those interviews will be giving offers makes sense on-site interviews basically any on-site that's already planned shall continue but we will raise our standards to the highest levels only 10 should be giving offers i don't know why i read this twice but it's in the article offers in process will continue there will be no counters to the offers unless jensen approves none jensen by the way is the ceo if you didn't know that it however said that diversity hiring will continue and there will be no slowdown in that we need to determine if any of your candidates are considered a diversity candidate if so proceed as usual now to be honest all this thing with a meeting the criteria or diversity to me just doesn't make sense because one it's unfair because it can be that someone that does not meet the criteria of being a diversity candidate he or she can do a much better job than someone that does meet that criteria i don't know just that doesn't make sense and sometimes it does harm the candidate itself lastly in a response to tnie an nvidia spokesman said we've been extremely successful in hiring this year we're slowing for now to integrate these new employees and to focus on our budget on taking care of existing employees as inflation persists alright fine that's a good explanation and it's pretty good to hear that from a spokesman now we're gonna hear more information obviously on wednesday but it's good that they're already taking steps not just to protect themselves as a company but protect the employees as well because over hiring yes it's great for the employees that get hired but after that they'll probably face the sac then just lose a job bad for a business bad for morale as well now we've got some other things happening here and those are price cuts in the stock that is and by the way if you want to support the channel check out the link in the description to receive the top 10 best stocks to buy now or visit food.com forward slash couch investor so the first one comes from an analyst louis miss i i'm not gonna pronounce the name because i'm gonna butcher it so he or she says that it's a danger zone for semiconductor stocks over the next six months probably gonna zoom in so you can see a bit better while demand for semis remains strong with beat and race results as we've seen with amd qualcomm especially intel a bit less even though they did beat their own expectations the market is telling us a recession could be coming this analyst tells investors in a research note until it is known the market could continue to be driven to new low levels due to fear and uncertainty says that investors concerned about a recession should pick more of his defensive stocks like qualcomm analog devices and intel then we've got a price cut from an analyst at wells fargo so he cut his price from 370 dollars to 250 dollars but he keeps an overweight rating on the shares ahead of the q1 report rickers expects thank god for an easy name nvidia to report solid data center growth endings nvidia's forward commentary with regard to demand visibility momentum and hopper product cycle will be key focus i completely agree and that any indication of deceleration would be an incremental negative i've got nothing to add here i agree 100 with him if we see any weakness in forward-looking commentary i think the stock could take another major hit if they say just like with amd they reiterate their guidance or maybe even raise it then the stock will probably do fairly well now we're gonna have a look at the numbers from last quarter and their outlook just so you get a better picture of what you might be expecting on wednesday so these were the numbers from last quarter so that's q4 fiscal year 2022 now gaming was still the biggest segment there i do expect data center to surpass gaming maybe not this quarter but probably by the end of the year i think that should happen now what you want to see is continued growth in data center i think that's the strongest one as we've seen with intel and amd as well with gaming if we see a big deceleration i think that's a that's a red flag there professional visualization that's omniverse i expect that to continue to grow quite nicely then auto nothing really happening there in my opinion then oem and others just a small small segment probably continued downtrend or just staying neutral and overall the total they do expect over eight billion dollars as you can see right here so they expect for q1 revenue of 8.1 billion dollars plus or minus 2 gross margins of 65.2 percent gap and 67 non-gaap operating expense of 3.55 billion dollars that includes the arm write-off of 1.36 billion dollars and 1.60 billion dollars non-gaap they need to pay this as a sort of fine because well they're not going to acquire it and so these are the big numbers actually that you can expect maybe on wednesday they're probably going to beat for this quarter i'm not gonna lie i think they have the momentum with them but it remains to be seen what might happen for q2 and maybe they'll give us full year guidance as well so overall what's my game plan right here right now it's actually doing nothing waiting for wednesday looking at the report and then determining whether or not i should add to my position now for the long term i obviously think nvidia will still be a huge huge winner but right now it remains to be seen how they see things working out for them in this year maybe next year as well especially in a high inflation market maybe going into a recession who knows i would like to hear what they have to say about that i'm pretty sure the business is doing extremely well right every segment we've seen is just knocking the ball out of the park as they say so we've seen amd's numbers we've seen qualcomm's numbers i don't really see why md would miss now again maybe the gaming segment is slowing down who knows especially now with high prices etc maybe some people might not want to buy a super expensive gpu but then again best in class maybe that doesn't matter anymore so work remains to be seen on wednesday i have no plans on selling any shares in my second portfolio i think nvidia is just going to be a huge huge company and even bigger company in the future and obviously what's your game plan going into this earnings report leave it all down in the comments below if you like this type of videos leave it a thumbs up if you unsubscribe do check out those two videos and i'll see you all in the next one bye
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