저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어가 AIP 부트캠프 전략으로 미국 상업 부문 매출(+55%), 고객수(+83%), 잔여계약가치(+103%)가 급성장하며 주가가 $45까지 올랐다. 7분기 연속 흑자이며 현금 $40억·부채 없음. 그러나 선행 PER 104로 역사상 가장 비싼 밸류에이션이라 실적 발표 전 매수는 하방 위험이 커 보고, 실적 확인 후 결정을 권함. 미국 상업 고객 295개는 성장 여지가 큼을 시사.
다듬은 글
paler is one of the hottest stocks in the market right now trading at $45 per share it's almost quadrupled from the beginning of the year when it was closer to $10 per share or I should say it's tripled from the beginning of the year where it was around $15 per share so understandably a lot of investors are excited about paler stock and they're rushing in to capitalize on this AI genius now one of the things I'm I'm going to answer in this video is if investors should buy paler stock before earnings the company on Monday November 4th 2024 and investors want to know should they buy this stock before earnings after earnings or should they not buy this stock at all or buy this stock so I'll answer those questions here in this video I'll also let investors know what what they should look out for from Palante here in the upcoming earnings release what are the big numbers to look out for what numbers will make a big difference that maybe not very many investors are talking about of course you're going to hear about the revenue and earnings per share numbers but there's more to paler than just the revenue and earnings per share I will share those with you here in this vide let's start with the latest developments at paler and for me the biggest thing with paler in recent quarters has been the growth in the US commercial business so in the latest quarter us commercial Revenue increased by 55% the customer count increased by an even better 83% year-over-year and then the remaining deal value which eventually turns into Revenue increased by 103% year over-year so this has really been the growth story for paler in recent quarters in my opinion is the biggest reason why the stock price has jumped the way it has all the way up to $45 per share of course we all know about paler success with governments and government institutions they've been great at that for many many years but what's new is the success with business this whole time palente here has been you know a best-in-class service but it's been expensive and so it hasn't been accessible for many businesses because of the price tag lately paler been working to alleviate some of that concern with the AIP boot camp strategy where it's been going into businesses demonstr rating to them what they could do and that's been turning into more sales because businesses look at palente here and say sure it's expensive but what we get in return makes it worthwhile so we don't mind paying the $100 million for something if we feel like we're going to get $150 million back in value and when paler goes in and demonstrates what they can do it convinces businesses that it is worthwhile otherwise it's difficult for businesses to get in and understand what they're buying with palente here so that's been really working well with paler and I suspect this will persist because the company found a way to unlock value and they're going to keep driving this until they see that it's not working anymore but I think there's a long Runway here because they're so small when you look at customer count the actual total customers is not very large compared to the total number of businesses in the world still paler price for the service has made it where they have relatively few customers and so they can expand with more and more customers if they can continue finding ways to make their services more accessible another big story with palad here lately has been the profitability on the bottom line seven straight quarters of profitability on the bottom line This company's been around for nearly two decades and they only recently were profitable on the bottom line but they expect to continue this trend now so seven straight quarters after they hit that inflection point they've continued and they've remained profitable and they've done a good job controlling costs while growing gravity okay so I highlighted some key metrics beyond the headline numbers that investors should look out for from paler when it announces earnings and one of them is the US customer commercial customer count now I highlighted that they don't have that many customers just 295 us commercial customers right that's not that many if you think about the millions of businesses in the US they only have 295 customers and so there's a long runway for growth if they can continue enhancing their service offering it making it more accessible finding ways to have it be more accessible to a business with not so much revenue it doesn't have to be a multi-billion dollar business if it can make it more accessible that's going to be the key here and so you want to see continued growth here 295 I want to see at least 10% growth here in this number uh number of 320 or more would be nice given that this growth rate has been decelerating on a trailing 12- month basis from 22% to 19% to 133% so you want to see at least 10% growth there quarterly so about 320 or more would be a nice number anything let's say if it's 350 or more that will I think drive a really big surge in the company's stock price I'm not expecting a number at 350 or above but if they do report something like that boy will investors get excited about that number right another thing I want to hear about is the cash balance they've got $4 billion in cash cash equivalents and us treasuries with no debt on the balance sheet I want to hear more about what their plans are with this cash balance are they going to buy back stock are they thinking about a dividend are they thinking about utilizing this competitively strategically which I've been asking for for some time now remember how I talked about they are so expensive that many businesses cannot afford their service but they could use this cash balance strategically to offer deals to businesses and say look we'll offer you our service and you don't have to pay us until 6 months later or 12 months later or even 18 months later they can offer these attract itive terms because they have so much cash that they don't need the company to make the cash payments what they would prefer is to lock in a sale and if they're so confident which their services have generated such good results and they are confident in what their services can bring to a business just secure the deal and tell the business pay us back 12 months later after we prove that our product will add value to your business then pay us back right so get creative and don't just let this cash balance build and build and build because you're not utilizing it it's only sitting around getting four or 5% return on a US Treasury Government Bond where I think that given the company's position given all of the growth opportunity it has ahead I would like to see them utilize their cash more than just letting it sit and build but at the same time they are doing a good job controlling costs and keeping profit margins up so I don't want them to get out of character and just lavishly spend this money but I want them to find effective areas to deploy this Capital don't just let it sit around and build up all right so given this recent runup in paler stock price 04 this is the most expensive this stock has ever been according to this valuation metric this is significantly higher than where it was earlier in the year I did have paler stock rated as a buy to start 2024 and I told investors to take profits somewhere around April or so I don't remember when but it was definitely before this big Surge and runup in paler stock price even after I took paler stock down you can see I have it now raging as a hold I brought it down to a hold and and I last updated that on August 21st but since I you know downgraded it to a hold the stock price has still increased since then so should you buy paler stock before or after earnings I would say um not to buy before earnings I feel the stock is so expensive that there is considerable downside in the earnings release if there are some numbers that are not good if there's concern there's more downside risk here to paler stock the valuation at a super premium price here and I don't think there's that much upside following the earnings release because the valuation is already so expensive now I made a similar prediction heading into Tesla's earnings release and that was wrong right so Tesla went into the earnings release being traded at a super expensive valuation and the stock price increased by 20% anyways following the very very strong earnings release so that could happen with paler here although I think the probabilities of that happening are not that strong and I felt the same with with Tesla but there could be a surprise here but I think when you're evaluating risk versus re reward I think it would be more prudent to wait until after earnings with paler stock if you're interested buying evaluate the latest Financial results and then make a decision afterwards
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