저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 혁명은 초기 단계이며 기술주 강세장이 이어질 것이라는 주장. 엔비디아는 AI 칩의 사실상 독점적 수혜주로 성장 스토리가 이제 시작이라 하고, 애플은 AI 대응 부진으로 약세, MS·팔란티어 등 AI 관련주에 긍정적. 올해 기술주 15% 상승 가능성 제시. 관세·미중 무역 협상은 디스에스컬레이션 기대로 긍정적. 밸류에이션 우려는 3~5년 장기 AI 투자 관점에서 일축하며 향후 3년간 기술 강세장 전망.
다듬은 글
Time now to spotlight the rally in tech. Joining us now for insight is the one and only Dan Ies, global head of tech of Wed Bush Securities. Dan, I was so happy when I heard that I get to sit down with you. I love seeing you whether it's in person or virtually. So, let's talk about the tech sector outperformance.
We've seen the NASDAQ 100 reach for a record after record recently. Um, we'll dive into everything that's going on with the Max 7, but I want to know just your big picture take on the strength that we're seeing now in tech. Yeah, and it's great to be here. I I thought you'd be wearing one of your more bullish sports, you know, co in terms of the pink or the this and look cuz it's the reality is is that this is the tech bull market and it's my view that in terms of the AI revolution, we're only just the beginning, the bottom of the first, top of the second.
And now from Nvidia to Microsoft to Palunteer, you're going to see a riskon environment and I think we could be looking at tech stocks up 15% this year. So AI clearly still the central theme within tech but now there seems to be this divide uh between you know the leaders and the lagards uh in this group especially when we think about the mag 7.
So what is separating like what's the secret sauce for say Nvidia Microsoft and Meta uh versus say an Apple or Alphabet? It's two letter it's AI. I mean, when you look what what's really been the overhang on Apple, it's because of AI because I mean, we were there at WWDC and that was that like we talked about that was a yawner.
And that's why they're ultimately going to have to either do a perplexity deal, do something significant because they have the best install base in the world. Compare that to what almost call like a you know CEOs right now that are less or f look at Zuckerberg what they're doing in meta when it comes to AI.
Look at Nadella. You look at the godfather of AI Jensen and Nvidia and that's why you know you're seeing those stocks because it reflects where they are in terms of the biggest tech boom we've seen the last 40 50 years but the bears and the haters if you focus just on valuation you've missed every transformational tech stock the last 20 years and you'll miss all these including names like Palunteer is it when you think about AI for like Nvidia is it are we at the you kind of beginning or the early beginnings of a new level of where it's like a not a nice to have but a need to have when you think about that like for instance with smartphones right uh everybody didn't have to have a smartphone but now you need one now uh with AI is it going to be so much part of the ecosystem that you need to have this especially in your portfolio yeah you just nailed it I mean I think it just there's one chip fueling the AI revolution and it's Nvidia there's there's No, I mean look, there are of course other companies that are producing chips, but that's why globally that's why there's only one godfather of AI and his name is Jensen.
And I think it comes down to Go ahead. Sorry. And it comes down to And it comes down to like the next leg of the Nvidia growth story has just begun. Okay. Well, it seems to be reflecting that obviously in the share price and it's a very different perspective than we had back in April uh when there was so much pressure and even the you know the deepseat conversation seems to be an afterthought.
Now, uh, when you think about the Mag 7, should it even still be called the Mag 7 given that, you know, you have this bifurcation within the group, right? Uh, is it still relevant as a group or should we start looking at these differently, especially when you think about the underperformance as it relates to Apple?
Yeah, but but I would just say we think about Microsoft, I mean, it underperformed for a while and now look at it now, right? In terms of white hot because investors have caught up. I still think you cannot just throw away that classification because these tech companies and just they're install bases and the strong are going to get stronger.
But it does speak to it's all f you're not just going to group them all together. They each have different headwinds, different tailwinds and right now there's clearly a sort of divide especially when it comes to AI. Do you think when it comes to the conversation about tariffs because some do worry about especially the tariff pressure as it relates to say Apple and Amazon is that still something that you know you have to figure out what the risk is when it comes to uh both of those companies.
Look, I mean, it's a risk, especially when it comes to Apple given the China dynamic, but you know, it's our view that the administration's stepping further and further back. You there's a deescalation. We'll have some, you know, scary headlines from from some of the deals, but I think you'll have deals in the table and that's bullish for tech and I think it's bullish for the AI trade, especially when it comes to the US China trade deal.
And that's very very important. And so I want to go back to the a point you made about valuations because some point out that you know especially some in this group are just too expensive and it doesn't necessarily uh the growth trajectory doesn't justify the valuation from some perspectives. What do you say to those critics?
I'd say to many of them look they're in their ca their hibernation caves because they can't see AI in the spreadsheets. I think it's just you got to look out three, four, five years in autonomous future, robotics, humanoids, enterprise AI, consumer a we're just in the beginning, the trillions that are going to be spent and that's why I just focus on like there is just it it's a fourth industrial revolution that we just happen to be living in and I think that's going to fuel a tech bull market next three years.
All right. All right. Uh, well, we're certainly fueling a bull market in tech right now. That's Dan Ies, Wed Bush Securities, managing director and senior equity research analyst. Always great perspective. Always great jackets as well.
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